by David Aragona
 

Get the wagering strategy for this card in this year’s TimeformUS Saratoga Betting Strategies package, which includes PPs for each day of the meet, exclusive access to the daily Highlight Horse, multi-race ticket constructions, and additional analysis of every stakes race at the meet. More info ›

PICKS

 
Race 1:   3 - 5 - 7 - 4
Race 2:   1 - 6 - 3 - 4
Race 3:   1 - 5 - 10 - 4
Race 4:   7 - 3 - 4 - 1
Race 5:   7 - 6 - 4 - 8
Race 6:   9 - 7 - 11 - 2
Race 7:   9 - 3 - 2 - 7
Race 8:   7 - 2 - 3 - 5
Race 9:   4 - 7 - 1
Race 10:   3 - 5 - 1 - 8

PLAYS

 
RACE 2: L. A. PAGE (#1)
This is one of the most confusing races on the card, since you have a number of fillies dropping in class and it’s difficult to know who to trust. While she’s clearly the horse to beat, the most alarming dropdown might be that of Carizzo. This filly was claimed for $50,000 just a month ago and now she’s running for half that price tag. Some connections do claim to try and win at Saratoga, but this is an awfully aggressive dropdown. First Forever is also dropping off the claim, but this makes more sense, since she’s a New York-bred facing open company and has raced this cheaply in the past. I respect the job that Rob Atras does, but I’ve never been this runner’s biggest fan and question her overall ability. Other out-of-town shippers like Bronco Sally and Destiny Over Fate aren’t impossible, but I want to look for a bigger price. My top pick is L. A. Page. This filly’s form completely fell apart last winter, as she was unable to put forth a competitive effort in either start at Aqueduct. Something clearly went awry, since she was given plenty of time off after that. Now she’s returning at a more realistic class level and I think there’s a chance that she might be able to turn her form around. Her first couple of races are actually fine, considering that she was just a 2-year-old. She launched an effective late rally to take her debut, and then arguably ran even better in the Maid of the Mist, trying to rally at the quarter pole before flattening out. This horse could run at one time, and she’s reportedly been training decently for her return. This spot may not be as tough as it seems so I think it’s ripe for a wacky result.
 

RACE 3: DEARLY DECLARED (#1)
One of the likely favorites in this spot is Doll, who makes her turf debut for Jason Servis after a pair of encouraging starts on dirt. She had the misfortune of running into the multiple stakes winner Newly Minted in her debut and returned with an even better effort last time. Jason Servis does very well with turf sprinters in general, and he is a decent 4 for 21 (19 percent, $1.80 ROI) with maidens switching to turf for the first time in sprints. This filly is by decent turf influence Verrazano and is a half-sister to 2 turf winners, so she certainly has a right to handle this surface. I’m using her, but I prefer those with prior grass experience. The best of those is Dearly Declared and she is my top pick. I was hoping to see this filly in a one-mile race as opposed to a true turf sprint, but she’s probably versatile enough to handle this turnback. She obviously ran well against open company over the winter at Gulfstream, racing competitively until the final furlong against some superior rivals. She was given plenty of time off after that, and she returned in a salty maiden event at the end of June. She could only manage to finish fourth, but that was primarily due to the peculiar ride she received. For whatever reason, it appears that the plan was to reserve her well off the pace despite the fact that she was expected to be the controlling speed. As one might predict in that situation, the pace was extremely slow and she resented being rated so aggressively at the back of the pack. Ortiz had no choice but to guide her outside for a clear path on the far turn, so she ended up losing a ton of ground while racing wide without cover. She’s clearly better than that, and she should be sharper with the blinkers going back on. The other runners that I would use are first time turfer Paradiso, who has plenty of pedigree to handle this surface, and first time starter Tatterazzi, whose trainer John Terranova does well with these types.
 

RACE 6: RHODE ISLAND (#9)
The horse to beat in this race is Clear for Action, who makes his first start off the claim for Eddie Kenneally after winning 3 of his last 4 starts for the Mike Maker barn. Kenneally is 5 for 24 (21 percent, $1.79 ROI) first off the claim on the turf over the past 5 years, and he really doesn’t need to improve this runner at all in order to get him to the winner’s circle. The 105 TimeformUS Speed Figure that he earned in his last start would be probably be good enough to beat this field, since he’s exiting a fairly strong claiming race at Churchill Downs. The horse that he defeated that day, Local Hero, returned to win here last week with a similar speed figure. I’m using this colt prominently, but there are others to consider. Cross Border makes some sense as he stretches out in distance. His sprint return at Belmont was quite good, though he did benefit from a race flow that favored front-runners. He’s handled longer distances in the past, but I wonder if he’s really best going this far at this point in his career. The Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, and that could potentially involved both of these aforementioned runners. I’m hoping such a situation develops, because I think Rhode Island has a good chance of picking them up late. This colt had run very well against maiden company on a number of occasions last year for Shug McGaughey without ever winning. His form left him earlier this year, which prompted the drop down to the maiden claiming level. However, things have started to turn back around recently. He showed some signs of life two back when closing to be second to Labeq and then last time he finished up with excellent power, running through the wire with better energy than he has shown in any of his recent starts. He seems to be back in form, and now he’s making his first start off the claim by Linda Rice, who is 10 for 37 (27 percent, $3.12 ROI) first off the claim in turf routes.
 

RACE 7: PILLAR MOUNTAIN (#9)
This is a fascinating N2X allowance race in which there are many potential contenders. I typically try to look for value in races such as this, but I just cannot get past the likely favorite Pillar Mountain. While touting longshots is the goal, finding reliable shorter horses around which you can key multi-race wagers is just as important on these Saratoga cards. Pillar Mountain is moving up to this level for the first time, but he’s arguably already faced fields that are as least as tough as this one. That was probably the case two back when he was closing behind Voting Control, who would be a significant favorite in a spot like this. The 1 1/16 miles of that race was probably too short for him, and he showed a truer indication of his current form last time when stretching out to today’s 11-furlong trip. That was an oddly run affair in which Crackspeed ran off on the front end. Pillar Mountain got a good trip until the top of the stretch, but he had to wait in traffic briefly in upper stretch before finding a seam. I thought he finished up with good power once he got clear in the late stages, outrunning the improving 3-year-old He’s No Lemon to the wire. Joel Rosario rides this horse well, and if he gets him to repeat that last effort, I think he’ll be difficult to beat. I would also use Sentry prominently in exotics with my top pick. This runner was improving in New York last fall and his return race at Belmont is better than it seems. There was no pace ahead of him that day, and he never had much of a chance to launch a closing rally. The return to Saratoga and this 3-turn configuration should suit him. I’ll also throw in Cape Angel, one of my favorite horses from last summer at Saratoga. Some horses just love it up at the Spa, and this runner has a right to step forward in his second start off the layoff for Joe Sharp.