by David Aragona
Now Available: TimeformUS Saratoga PPs and Betting Strategies
Gain access to TimeformUS PPs for all 40 days of the Saratoga meet, plus betting strategies – recommended wagers for each of David Aragona's daily Top Plays, fully constructed multi-race tickets including daily Pick-4s and Pick-5s, and additional strategic information around playing every card. You will also receive exclusive access to David's Highlight Horses, as well as opinions on all stakes races. Learn more ›
Race 1: 7 - 5 - 2 - 6
Race 2: 10 - 4 - 1 - 5
Race 3: 3 - 2 - 1 - 6
Race 4: 4 - 6 - 9 - 5
Race 5: 7 - 1 - 6 - 3
Race 6: 5 - 4 - 2 - 9
Race 7: 1 - 12 - 3 - 10
Race 8: 1 - 7 - 2 - 8
Race 9: 3 - 1 - 5 - 7
Race 10: 6 - 8 - 2 - 11
RACE 3: COMEONCOMEONCAT (#3)
Strong Side has to be considered the horse to beat based on his recent dirt form. While he was allowed to set a slow pace in that April 8 maiden victory, he still ran a speed figure that would likely beat this field. The Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring horses on or near the lead, and Strong Side’s tactical speed makes him dangerous. Yet it’s the horse posted just to his outside, Comeoncomeoncat, that intrigues me more. This 3-year-old is actually predicted to be setting the early pace. After an inauspicious start to his career, he has noticeably stepped forward in his last two starts. He ran a career-best race to be second to New York-bred stakes performer Morning Breez two back, and then last time he ran deceptively well at Parx. The early pace of that June 17 race was extremely fast, indicated by the red color-coded pace figures at every call in TimeformUS PPs. The race was largely dominated by horses that rallied from the back of the pack, so Comeoncomeoncat did very well to hang on for fourth, beaten less than three lengths. His recent TimeformUS Speed Figures put him right in line with the top contenders, and he still has upside. I prefer these two runners to Monteleone, who also figures to take some money. The Wesley Ward barn has gone 0 for its last 17 runners at Belmont after a strong start to that meet, and I don’t like the way this colt tailed off last time.
RACE 4: DOMINANT STRATEGY (#4)
The main contenders in this race are all dropping out of maiden special weight company. Azzedine figures to go off as the favorite after placing second in three of his four starts. None of his performances have been anything exceptional, but he does appear to be the most reliable option in a race where others still have questions to answer. Teryn It Up could be his main rival after facing much tougher foes in his two most recent starts at Belmont. However, I wasn’t thrilled with the way he readily capitulated once challenged in the stretch last time. I’ll use him, but I wonder if he’s starting to head in the wrong direction, as Brian Lynch curiously adds blinkers back into the mix. I’m taking a shot against these two with Chad Brown’s other horse, Dominant Strategy. While this runner does not have overwhelming turf pedigree, he has enough to suggest he can handle the surface, since his dam, Zardana, was a stakes winner on grass. This runner’s half-sibling is turf winner Dark Energy, who competes later on this card. Dominant Strategy logged a bullet turf drill prior to this experiment, and Chad Brown has solid numbers in this situation. Over the past five years, he is 4 for 13 ($2.80 ROI) with horses dropping from maiden special weight to maiden claiming races and trying the turf for the first time.
RACE 5: PRINCESS TRINA (#7)
There appear to be some talented first-time starters in this field. The Todd Pletcher entry is likely to go off as the heavy favorite. Blahnik is the one that drew into the main body of the race, and she looked pretty fast when working a furlong in 10 1/5 seconds at the OBS March sale. She’s the filly to beat, but there are others to consider. At that same OBS sale, Winandyourin Gin gobbled up the ground while logging a 10-flat furlong, while Lyrical Lady was hard-ridden to stop the clock in 20 3/5 for a quarter-mile. Both go out for capable barns and sport decent sprint pedigrees. I’m using them, but the debuting filly that intrigues me most is Princess Trina. Ralph Nicks can fly under the radar in these races, but he has excellent numbers with this first time starters. Over the past five years, he is 28 for 110 (25 percent, $2.54 ROI) with 2-year-olds making their debuts in dirt sprints. If you drill down into that sample a bit further, you discover that he’s actually won with 3 of 5 such runners at Saratoga (60 percent, $11.22 ROI). I’ve watched a few of this filly’s recent morning drills and she appears to possess some ability, as she has outclassed all of her workmates while clocking some decent times. Furthermore, she’s bred to be fast, since her dam is a half-sister to graded stakes-winning sprinters Apriority and Bahamian Squall.
RACE 7: MYHARTBLONGSTODADY (#1)
Hollywood Cat failed to draw into this race off the also-eligible list, which makes me even more confident in my original top selection, Myhartblongstodady. This filly worked out a somewhat uncomfortable trip from an outside post position last time, as she was rated between horses for much of the race before getting spun wide into the stretch. She got pushed inside by a rival when attempting to rally, and ended up losing momentum behind runners in midstretch. Once she got clear again on the rail, she finished well and galloped out ahead of the field. I feel that she ran a better race than Cumbria, who finished just ahead of her that day. This time, Myhartblongstodady is drawn perfectly on the rail, and I think she may possess more ability than she’s shown thus far.
RACE 10: CAPE ANGEL (#6)
With the scratch of Prognostication, County Court becomes the obvious horse to beat. He takes a significant drop in class after facing tougher N1X allowance foes in recent starts. He had promised to turn into a nice horse following his maiden win in April, but those plans didn’t pan out. In retrospect, the “good” turf condition may have aided him that day, and he probably isn’t as talented over firm going. I’m not thrilled with him, but he’s the class of the field and he does figure to be helped by a fast pace in this spot. You have to use him, but I want to take a shot with Cape Angel at a much bigger price. At first glance, his turf form does not appear to be competitive with his rivals. However, it’s worth noting that he didn’t run as badly as it may seem against maiden company at the start of his career. That Keeneland maiden race in April of last year in which he finished behind Yoshida was dominated on the front end, and he was actually running on well late while facing a tough group of horses. His only turf race since then came at Suffolk Downs in September of last year, and he easily handled some overmatched rivals in a commanding score. Now he’s been on the shelf for quite some time, but trainer Joe Sharp has fantastic numbers off layoffs. Over the past five years, he is 10 for 32 (31 percent, $3.82 ROI) off layoffs of 180 days or more on the turf. This race should feature an honest pace up front, which suits his running style, and I think it’s meaningful that these shrewd connections are bringing him back in an ambitious spot with the claiming tag waived.