PICKS

Race 1:   2 - 6 - 1 - 8
Race 2:   6 - 5 - 3 - 1
Race 3:   6 - 3 - 2 - 4
Race 4:   4 - 3 - 8 - 5
Race 5:   7 - 5 - 8 - 6
Race 6:   3 - 11 - 8 - 2
Race 7:   4 - 6 - 10 - 1
Race 8:   5 - 9 - 8 - 6
Race 9:   3 - 9 - 1 - 8
Race 10:   9 - 3 - 2 - 8

TOP PLAYS

RACE 1: FLASH TRADING (#2)
The 2017 Saratoga season appropriately kicks off with a head-scratcher. I suppose the horse to beat is the likely speed, River Date. Rudy Rodriguez has put together very strong numbers off the claim on dirt at the Spa, but he will have to improve a horse who disappointed with a perfect trip in his most recent start downstate. There are a number of intriguing runners coming in from out of town, and the one that I want is Flash Trading. At first glance, this runner appears to be off form, but he's had some excuses. He was facing some tough fields late last year, and his return last time was not as bad as it looks. The pace of that race was on the slow side, and no one did any passing as the leader went wire to wire. Flash Trading won at this meet last year, and drew well down toward the inside.

RACE 4: SO NOTED (#4)
I have no major knocks against Patternrecognition, who ran well to be second to the talented Coal Front last time. However, he's going to be a very short price and I think this race is more wide open than that. The Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, which comes as no surprise given that so many runners in this race prefer to be placed on or near the lead in the early going. I'm hoping this race comes apart late because I think So Noted has a chance to pull off the upset. He was ridden like he needed a race last time and I think he can close the gap on the favorite today. He's run some competitive speed figures in the past, and is reunited with Joel Rosario.

RACE 6: MO PROMISE (#3)
The most reliable runner in this confusing race is Same Kinda Crazy, who twice did well against marginally tougher fields at Belmont this summer despite not working out a great trip on either occasion. However, she's drawn towards the outside in a full field. I want a runner that will offer value, so I'm trying to get Mo Promise to pull off the upset. She was basically eased last time at Belmont, but she probably needed that race off the layoff and I don't think she wants to go that far anwyay. Her lone start sprinting on turf last summer, in which she finished second to subsequent stakes winner Lady Joan, was solid. She's drawn well towards the inside and should get some pace to close into.

RACE 7: MUQTASER (#4)
I've finally had enough of the 2017 version of Highland Sky. This horse was a promising 3-year-old, but he's disappointed in his two New York starts this year. His most recent loss was inexcusable, as he had every chance to wear down the leaders but could only manage third. The horse that you want out of that race is Red Rifle, since he was stymied in traffic for the stretch drive. He's worth using, but I'm most interested in a longshot. Muqtaser has started on turf only twice in this country, and he encountered mild trouble in the stretch both times. He's stretching out in distance now, but he won at a mile and a quarter in Europe, it shouldn't be a negative. He can use his tactical speed to stalk likely pacesetter Infinite Wisdom and get the jump on the closers.

RACE 9: DEFIANT HONOR (#3)
There isn't much speed signed on for this race, so I’m a little wary of deep closers like Proctor's Ledge and Dream Dancing, who may need some help up front. The horse to beat is probably Sweeping Paddy, who was very impressive when taking down the Regret at Churchill Downs last time. She has really improved in recent months, but must now prove that she can take her show on the road, since all of her best efforts have come in Kentucky. Morning-line favorite Fifty Five drew well on the rail and should get a nice trip, but I'm not quite convinced that she's this good. I'm going to try to beat the favorites with recent allowance winner Defiant Honor. I've been a fan of this filly since her debut and I thought her return at Belmont was encouraging. This is a significant step up in class, but I think this full sister to Recepta is talented enough to handle it.

RACE 10: DYNAMIC WAR (#9)
In a totally wide-open finale, I want to bet Dynamic War. This filly got a nightmare of a trip last time at Keeneland after getting bumped around at the start while facing a significantly tougher bunch. I don't think we've seen the best of her yet, since turf is supposed to be her preferred surface. She possesses the speed to make the front here, so I'm hoping Manny Franco can nurse her along on the lead. I’ll use her with Submit, who got a bizarre ride last time at Belmont, where she got shuffled back to last around the far turn before rerallying to be fourth.