by David Aragona
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Race 1: 5 - 4 - 1 - 8
Race 2: 2 - 1 - 7 - 5
Race 3: 3 - 2 - 6 - 7
Race 4: 3 - 6 - 5 - 8
Race 5: 9 - 3 - 6 - 2
Race 6: 3 - 9 - 6 - 7
Race 7: 2 - 8 - 10 - 1
Race 8: 6 - 9 - 1 - 7
Race 9: 8 - 2 - 4 - 3
Race 10: 11 - 5 - 1 - 3
RACE 3: SPARKLING SKY (#3)
There are three main players in this spot, and the natural inclination is to gravitate towards the two with turf sprint form. Those are Peaceful and Voting Agreement. The former owns the best speed figures in this field, and should be right there at the end if she merely repeats her last race. However, this may be a slightly tougher spot and I didn’t think she had a major excuse to lose last time. Perhaps winner Cariba is simply a better horse, but Peaceful set a slow pace and just couldn’t quite kick away. It’s possible that I’m being overly dismissive of the most likely winner, but I wanted to look elsewhere. Voting Agreement also returned from a layoff last time with a solid effort. Yet she underperformed relative to her favorite’s status that day, as she never really posed a threat while just barely hanging on for third. I think she would need to improve to beat this field. Given that I’m not thrilled with either of these short prices, I want to give a shot to the third major player, who is turning back in distance. Sparkling Sky started out going two turns last year and was successful enough for them to stick with it. She won her second start in style and followed that up with a strong effort in the Grade 2 Miss Grillo. She didn’t fare as well at Aqueduct in November after losing some ground on the turns and she’s been off ever since. While returning in a sprint race may seem counterintuitive at first glance, she’s actually bred to excel over this distance. Her dam was best sprinting, and Sparkling Sky is a full-sister to Justa Lady, who was a turf sprint stakes winner at this distance. The switch to Horacio DePaz is a lateral move, and I think this filly will run well.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 2,6,7
Trifecta: 3 with 2,6 with 2,6,7
RACE 4: COLD HEARTED PEARL (#3)
Stay Fond is probably the horse to beat as she attempts to win her second consecutive race since being claimed by Mike Miceli. She got the job done going 7 furlongs at Belmont last time despite getting badly outrun in the early going. The race did fall apart at the end, but Stay Fond came with her reliable late run to get up. Mike Miceli is an excellent 9 for 32 (28%, $2.64 ROI) with horses coming off wins on dirt. The one potential knock against this mare is her running style, since the main track at Saratoga hasn’t really been conducive to her style over the past week or so. I’m using her prominently, but I want to look for some rivals with more speed. Blunt Force figures to attract some support, but I’m a little skeptical of the race she exits. She won going this distance in comfortable fashion, but this seems like a tougher spot. I wan to go in a different direction, so I’m taking a shot with the speedy Cold Hearted Pearl. For whatever reason, Kendrick Carmouche was not aggressive with her last time. She broke a bit slowly but then was restrained off the pace thereafter over a sloppy, speed-favoring strip. She got out a bit on the turn and was never a factor. Obviously she hasn’t run well since returning from the layoff, but she does have prior form that makes her a major contender in this spot if she can bounce back. I wouldn’t be worried about the 7-furlong distance since she’s won going as far as a mile within the past year.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,5,6,8
RACE 6: OVERJOYED (#3)
From a speed figure standpoint, Cap de Creus is a clear standout in this field. Almost all of her recent numbers are higher than those her competitors have achieved, and she’s primarily earned those figures against superior competition. The major issue with this filly is that she just doesn’t win. She’s been stuck at this N1X level for a while and has lost some close decisions along the way. That said, she was probably going to get the job done last time if she hadn’t gotten stymied in traffic in upper stretch. That effort was flattered when Civil Union returned to win the River Memories, and the added distance shouldn’t hinder her. It does feel like this may finally be the day for Cap de Creus, but it’s hard to swallow a very short price on a horse like this. I want to look elsewhere, and the best alternative that I can find is the 3-year-old filly Overjoyed. She broke her maiden on turf as a juvenile at Del Mar and subsequently tried some tougher fields in stakes after that. She returned from the layoff on dirt last time and put in a vastly improved performance. She was no match for winner Spice Is Nice, but that filly is graded stakes quality. Overjoyed earned a career-best 99 TimeformUS Speed Figure. She showed off a strong series of works coming into that return, so it’s very likely that she’s simply stepped forward with natural maturity. Now she’s getting back to what is arguably her best surface and she’s bred to run all day. Furthermore, Neil Drysdale is 7 for 12 (58%, $4.85 ROI) on the turf at NYRA over the past 5 years.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 6,7,9
Trifecta: 3,9 with 3,9 with 1,2,6,7
RACE 7: TOWERING GAZE (#2)
Snicket is the horse to beat after twice finishing second at this level at Belmont. She arguably should have been placed first last time after she was herded out significantly in the stretch of hat race and she’s obviously a major contender here with a repeat of that performance. Quantitativebreezin seems like one of her main rivals despite debuting for a tag. She ran well within the context of her debut race, as she launched a wide run at the quarter pole over a turf course that was favoring inside paths. She was never really a threat to Saratoga Love as the diminishing margin was partly a function of the winner being geared down late. I’m also a little concerned that some horses haven’t run back to the speed figures they earned in that race. Yet she obviously has some ability and should be around at the finish. My top pick is Towering Gaze. She ran pretty well behind Snicket in her debut as she made a strong late run up the rail before getting in tight quarters behind that rival late. They tried to stretch her out to 7 furlongs last time and I’m just not convinced that she wants to go that far. All of her siblings are confirmed turf sprinters, including one, Veterans Beach, who doesn’t want to go a step beyond 5 1/2 furlongs. I think she’s going to appreciate this slight cutback in distance and I also believe she’s more comfortable running at a target than racing freely on the front end, as she did last time. One other horse I'd throw into the mix at a big price is Robin Sparkles. I know she doesn't have much turf pedigree on her dam's side, but she's by Elusive Quality and flashed some impressive speed in the slop before fading last time.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,7,8,10
Trifecta: 2 with 8,10 with 1,7,8,9,10
RACE 8: ZOOMER (#6)
I’m against potential favorite Free Enterprise in this spot. This horse’s reputation is built on a couple of fast victories last fall in New York, but both of those races look somewhat less imposing in retrospect, as the fields have proven to be weaker than initially thought. He returned from a layoff last time at Churchill and his performance was dreadful. He worked out a great trip and just had nothing to offer as the even-money favorite against inferior rivals. Of the shorter prices, I prefer Mount Travers and Strike That. The former earned a competitive speed figure in the mud last time, but he has run solid races over dry tracks before. It’s possible that he’s just a new horse as a 4-year-old. And Strike That will attract some support due to the fact that he was second to up-and-coming brilliant sprinter Volatile last time. He’s drawn well on the outside of the other speed, but has to avoid chasing the very fast Chateau on the front end. The Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, and I do think there’s a chance this race could come apart given the presence of those main speeds Chateau and Ready to Escape. Therefore I want to take a shot with the best closer, Zoomer. This horse ran one of his best races off the layoff back in June, as he was caught towards the back of the pack early was the only horse to make up significant ground in a race dominated on the front end. He moved up to this level last time, but was unfortunate to catch some stakes-quality rivals in Fortin Hill and Amundson. I also think the 7-furlong distance may have tested his stamina. Now he’s cutting back to his best trip and he’s going to get more pace to close into.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,7,9
RACE 10: FROZEN ACCOUNT (#11)
The merits of the favorites in this race are fairly obvious. Aintitfunkynow gets needed class relief after picking up some checks against maiden special weight foes earlier in the year. I get the sense that we’ve already seen what he has to offer, and that might be good enough to win this race, but he doesn’t offer much value. Bricco will also attract support and has a right to take a step forward second off the layoff. Yet I think this is a slightly tougher field than the one he faced last time. Of the more logical runners, I’m more interested in Operative, who finished behind Aintitfunkynow in his last two turf starts. He was chasing a fast pace in the early stages two back and now gets a positive rider switch to Jose Ortiz. I’m using all of these, but I want to take a shot with a first time turfer that I’ve been waiting to bet.
Frozen Account finally gets on turf for the first time after getting rained off at this level last week. Some may be deterred by the fact that he’s returning on 7 days’ rest, but if you watch that last race it’s pretty clear that they were just using that effort as a means to an end. This horse showed ability in his debut over a sloppy, sealed track at Aqueduct, but has struggled to recapture that form ever since. I think this surface switch could be the answer since he’s by 11-percent turf sire Central Banker and is a half-brother to turf winner Miss Mystique. He’s going to be a big price here and I think he’s going to appreciate the grass.
Win/Place: 11
Exacta Key Box: 11 with 1,3,5
Trifecta: 1,3,5 with 1,3,5 with 11