by David Aragona
Get the wagering strategy for this card in this year’s TimeformUS Saratoga Betting Strategies package, which includes PPs for each day of the meet, exclusive access to the daily Highlight Horse, multi-race ticket constructions, and additional analysis of every stakes race at the meet. More info ›
Race 1: 3 - 5 - 1 - 2
Race 2: 1A - 2 - 8 - 5
Race 3: 2 - 7 - 10 - 11
Race 4: 1 - 3 - 6 - 2
Race 5: 8 - 9 - 4 - 1
Race 6: 7 - 9 - 3 - 8
Race 7: 5 - 7 - 9 - 6
Race 8: 8 - 11 - 6 - 5
Race 9: 3 - 8 - 1 - 7
Race 10: 6 - 2 - 10 - 1
RACE 5: IVY’S COLLEGE FUND (#8)
The horse to beat is Tiz R Bella, who steps up into open claiming company after two straight wins against conditioned foes. She has earned speed figures that suggest she’s superior to this group, but she’s going to have to keep her streak going for a new barn. John Toscano does not have great numbers off the claim and he’s getting this horse from a barn that has been firing at an excellent strike rate in recent months. I’m using her prominently, but I don’t want to take her at a short price in such a competitive field. I’m not thrilled with the other horses who have been competing at this level at Belmont. Runners like Moondance Joy and Wildcat Belle are honest enough, but I think they’re meeting some tougher foes in this spot. My top pick is Ivy’s College Fund, who tries to transfer her form from Monmouth back to New York. This mare ran a series of solid speed figures out of town last summer before her form tailed off. She’s now in Bruce Levin’s barn and has run deceptively well in a few starts as a 5-year-old. She dominated inferior foes in her firs start back from a layoff on June 2 and then she stepped up to impressively beat a tougher field last time with style. That conditioned race at Monmouth was arguably just as tough as this race and she may not have to run much better to beat this field. It’s a good sign that Jose Ortiz is taking the mount and she’s shown the ability to stalk in a race that features some pace.
RACE 6: OCEAN FIRE (#7)
Balon Rose figures to take money again despite losing as the 1-5 favorite in her debut. There was plenty of hype about this $1.6 million yearling purchase and she was not facing the strongest field that day, so it’s particularly disappointing that she was unable to get the job done. The winner, Xanthique, did return to beat winners next time out, but she did so against starter allowance foes. It’s certainly possible that Balon Rose did not appreciate the yielding conditions that day, but that better have been the excuse because she needs to run much better to beat this field. If she’s a short price again, I want to look elsewhere for my top pick. The two other second-time starters are also intriguing. Passive Investing, Chad Brown’s other horse, makes some sense after running on decently to be second in her unveiling in June. She was beaten by a classier, more experienced rival and she has the pedigree to improve with added ground. I’m definitely using her, but my top pick is the Bill Mott runner Ocean Fire. This filly is coming out of a very strong race, as winner Catch a Bid was extremely impressive and returned to finish a good second to the graded stakes-placed Varenka next time out. While the winner came home with a rush, the early pace was quite strong, sapping the late energy of some others, Ocean Fire included. I thought she actually stayed on very well to be third. The horse that she had been racing alongside early, Five Alarm Robin, returned to finish a good third next time out with an improved speed figure. Ocean Fire appears to be training well out of that race and she’s bred to handle added ground.
RACE 8: BANANA THIEF (#8)
New York’s Finest is a deserving favorite in this race as he drops back down to New York-bred company after meeting tougher open foes in a series of races dating back to 2017. He clearly loves Saratoga, having won 4 of 5 starts over this course and distance, so perhaps getting back to this venue will wake him up. While he’s finished off the board in both starts so far this season, those efforts are not nearly as bad as they seem. He was meeting a particularly tough field in the King T. Leatherbury two back, and then last time he got a strange trip when shuffled back in the early going before passing tired horses late. My one reservation with this horse is the fact that he has trouble handling any give in the ground and Saratoga got a ton of rain in the afternoon on Thursday. I’m using him, but I prefer some others. Two horses coming out of the 6th race on May 17 interest me. The winner Fear makes plenty of sense as he comes back at the same level while cutting back to 5 1/2 furlongs. He handles the distance and he proved last time that a little cut in the ground doesn’t both him. He’s not totally trustworthy since his prior form from the winter was poor, but Jeremiah Englehart is pretty good at keeping these older runners going. Yet I want to take Banana Thief out of that race. His inexperienced rider gave up too much position in the early going that day, as this horse was shuffled back to last leaving the backstretch. He ran on well to be fourth in a race where the pace mostly held together. Banana Thief then stepped up to run a strong race against open N1X foes last time, earning a speed figure that would make him formidable here. He’s always been dangerous at this distance and Santana rode him to victory up here last summer. If he gets the right trip, he’s capable of repeating that feat.
RACE 9: LOOKING AT BIKINIS (#3)
This Curlin drew a fantastic field, featuring some exciting, lightly raced colts stepping up to face off against a few horses who have already tested graded stakes waters. While there are many options to consider, I can’t get past the likely favorite Looking at Bikinis. This horse showed a ton of ability right from the start, as he demolished a good maiden field in the slop at Belmont last fall. He had a minor setback after that and it took Chad Brown a long time to get him back to the races. Yet he looked better than ever in his return at Belmont in June, rating for the first time in his career and overcoming some minor traffic trouble to win in style. The horse he defeated, Not That Brady, is a seasoned runner who has previously been competitive in graded stakes. Looking at Bikinis merely needs to repeat that 118 TimeformUS Speed Figure to win this race. The stretch-out around two turns is a question mark, but progeny of Lookin at Lucky typically relish added distance and his dam was a router. Furthermore, the Pace Projector is predicting he will be racing up close to the early pace in a situation favoring the leaders. While he’s the most likely winner, there are a number of others to consider. I’m starting to lose faith in Intrepid Heart, who just hasn’t really stepped forward off his first two starts. Perhaps the drop in class helps him, but I prefer some others. Rowayton’s speed makes him dangerous, but I’m highly skeptical of him getting this 9-furlong distance. The biggest threat to Looking at Bikinis may in fact be his stablemate Highest Honors. This horse has only beaten maidens thus far, but he’s faced very good fields in both starts and has only been beaten by Winning Number, who recently crossed the wire first in the Iowa Derby.