by David Aragona
Now Available: TimeformUS Saratoga PPs and Betting Strategies
Gain access to TimeformUS PPs for all 40 days of the Saratoga meet, plus betting strategies – recommended wagers for each of David Aragona's daily Top Plays, fully constructed multi-race tickets including daily Pick-4s and Pick-5s, and additional strategic information around playing every card. You will also receive exclusive access to David's Highlight Horses, as well as opinions on all stakes races. Learn more ›
Race 1: 6 - 5 - 1A - 2B
Race 2: 2 - 7 - 5 - 8
Race 3: 1A - 5 - 3 - 8
Race 4: 2 - 7 - 6 - 1
Race 5: 11 - 5 - 1 - 3
Race 6: 3 - 4 - 7 - 6
Race 7: 1 - 11 - 3 - 10
Race 8: 1 - 8 - 4 - 5
Race 9: 1 - 2 - 3 - 4
Race 10: 4 - 10 - 11 - 3
RACE 2: RADIANT BEAUTY (#2)
After the scratches of the two favorites in this race, my original top selection Radiant Beauty looks pretty formidable. Radiant Beauty has been in some tough spots, and she’s actually had poor trips in a few of those races. This filly got completely caught up in traffic in the Chelsey Flower to end her season last year. She ran well in her seasonal debut this year, then she was compromised by pace and trips in her last two efforts. That was a deceptively fast pace two back on May 13, and she had every right to tire behind some stakes horses. Then last time, she got a ridiculous trip after stumbling at the start and making a premature four-wide move. Radiant Beauty has done her best work when she can get loose on the front end, and she is supposed to be the speed here.
RACE 3: WEGOTOLDYOUGOTSOLD (#1A)
Likely co-favorite Change of Venue was scratched, which makes my original top pick a much shorter price. Wegotoldyougotsold is the half of the entry that I prefer, but unfortunately his price will get dragged down by his coupled stablemate Engineers Report. I’m optimistic that Wegotoldyougotsold can return off the layoff with an improved effort. He ran deceptively well in his debut at Laurel, and followed that up with a dominant maiden win at Aqueduct. While the speed figure for that Dec. 21 win was not particularly fast, runner-up Im an Ocala Dude did return to run faster in a few subsequent starts. I can forgive Wegotoldyougotsold’s last appearance on Jan. 27, as he got shuffled back on the turn and ended up racing very wide over a racetrack that appeared to be favoring inside paths. Now he’s had plenty of time to recover, and he returns as a new gelding off an eye-catching series of workouts. He also gets a significant rider switch to Manny Franco.
RACE 5: CANDY ZIP (#11)
There’s a lot to dissect in this competitive affair. Charlie McCoy is probably the horse to beat off his runner-up finish at this level last time. He looked like a winner at the eighth pole, but he could never quite put away a very game Dezzer. That effort represented a substantial improvement on his slow maiden win, but it’s possible that this lightly-raced 3-year-old is just improving with racing. I’m not against him, but I do think others will offer better value. Stoney Bennett is a difficult runner to assess. He showed a great deal of promise as a 2-year-old last fall, impressively winning his debut before running a game fourth in the Sleepy Hollow after contesting a fast pace. However, things started to go awry after that. He lost as the heavy favorite in late November, and then was uncompetitive in two subsequent starts. Now he returns off a long layoff in the barn of Linda Rice. Over the past five years, she is 13 for 35 (37 percent, $2.99 ROI) off trainer switches in dirt sprints, so there’s reason to believe that she can coax a good effort out of this new gelding. I’m using him, but the horse that interests me most is Candy Zip. There is a ton of speed in this field, as It’s Hot Out, Stoney Bennett, and Wrong Ben all do their best work when racing on or near the lead. The Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, but there are few reliable closers in this field. I’m hoping that Candy Zip is the one that works out the right trip from off the pace as he returns from an extended layoff. Based on his 2-year-old maiden win, he’s too slow to beat these horses, but that may have been a better effort than it seems. We saw multiple horses return out of that race to do some nice things soon afterwards, including runner-up Dig That Mine, who won his next start with an improved speed figure. Candy Zip was well-bet before throwing the rider at the start of his debut last summer, so I wouldn’t be surprised if this one may have more to offer. Larry Rivelli has outstanding numbers in this situation. Over the past five years, he is 33 for 91 (36 percent, $2.50 ROI) off layoffs of 180 days or more in sprints.
RACE 8: SIR BALLANTINE (#1)
Uncle Mojo may go favored here as he drops out of the Grade 1 Stephen Foster. He was clearly overmatched that day and actually didn’t run badly to hang on for fifth. He obviously handles the distance, and it’s a feather in his cap that he owns a win over the track, but I have trouble accepting a short price on this runner. Aside from that runaway win in the slop at Pimlico, his efforts just don’t make him particularly formidable against this salty field. Flowers for Lisa and Virtual Machine exit the same race at Monmouth Park. The former, who is in for the tag this time, ran well to hang on for the win that day, but I’m somewhat skeptical about him bringing that form to New York. Virtual Machine is more appealing to me since he has run well at NYRA tracks before, and I think he’s well suited by this demanding nine-furlong distance. I’m using him, but my top selection is Sir Ballantine. Ever since this horse joined Danny Gargan’s barn, I’ve been waiting for him to stretch out around two turns. When this horse was trained by Ken McPeek, he wanted to run all day, as he had to stretch out to 1 1/4 miles to win his maiden. He has clearly improved for the new barn, and I think he will be awfully tough here if he can repeat his effort two back, where he ran down Exulting and Ekhtibaar despite not getting much pace to close into. Last time, I thought his rider placed him too close to a fast pace, which is not really his best style. This time, Kendrick Carmouche can sit back and make one run since horses like All About Ashley, Uncle Mojo, and Flowers for Lisa should ensure an honest early tempo.