by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona
Now Available: Exclusive Saratoga betting strategies and unlimited TimeformUS PPs for the Saratoga meet!
On every Friday through Sunday at the Saratoga meet, get exclusive access to betting tickets for David Aragona’s Top Plays, including multi-race bet constructions and other exotic tickets. Also get exclusive access to David's Highlight Horses, as well as opinions on all stakes races. Learn more
Race 1: 1 - 2 - 4 - 5
Race 2: 9 - 8 - 6 - 2
Race 3: 2 - 5 - 7 - 1
Race 4: 5 - 1 - 8 - 6
Race 5: 9 - 1 - 2 - 4
Race 6: 9 - 1 - 5 - 2
Race 7: 2 - 8 - 1A - 4
Race 8: 8 - 3 - 7 - 1
Race 9: 3 - 7 - 2 - 6
Race 10: 13 - 7 - 4 - 1
RACE 1: BIG MARA (#1)
Big Mara has never been a fan of wet racetracks, so I can excuse her last two efforts over muddy and sloppy surfaces. Her prior races over dry dirt would beat just about everyone in this field, and she figures to appreciate the class relief that she gets here. Her main rival is Madam Aarmoura, who figures to be on the lead early. The Pace Projector is predicting a situation that favors runners near the pace, but Big Mara shouldn’t be far off that rival early and I think she can run her down. Anything close to her morning line price of 9/2 would be more than fair.
RACE 2: NONEEDTOFLATTERME (#9)
Professor Snape figures to go off as one of the favorites in this race, but I’m concerned he may not get the trip that he needs. He’s been most effective when he’s been able to control the pace up front, and there are a number of horses in this field – Right Ben, Dark as Midnight, and even Lightning Buzz – that appear to be faster than him early. He’s a contender, but I think others will offer better value. My top pick is Noneedtoflatterme. This horse ran better than it appears in a few starts at the beginning of his career, hanging on well after chasing fast paces (indicated by red color-coding in the PPs). He’s run on turf in his two starts for the Ray Handal barn, but he’s clearly more of a dirt horse, and should appreciate this switch back to his preferred surface. He doesn’t need the lead, and can stalk the contested pace that figures to develop ahead of him.
RACE 3: BODIE’S VALENTINE (#2)
Is Double Cast a horse that’s been unlucky, or is she starting to run out of chances? She brings the strongest form into this race after losses by a nose and a head in two straight starts. Furthermore, she might have won either of those races – especially two back – had she gotten more patient rides and not made the lead so early. I’m afraid of her, but her form is now exposed, so I want to look for a runner that figures to go off at a more attractive price. The filly that I want is Bodie’s Valentine, who stretches out after making one start at Churchill Downs. I don’t think she ever got into full gear that day as she had to maneuver her way through traffic in the stretch. I liked the way she was striding out across the wire before galloping out strongly. Over the past five years, Mike Maker is 12 for 46 (26 percent, $3.19 ROI) in turf races at 10 furlongs or farther on the NYRA circuit.
RACE 7: TALE OF S’AVALL (#2)
Economic Model is a deserving favorite in this spot as he drops out of the Grade 1 Metropolitan Handicap, where he actually put forth a decent effort to be fifth. There is not that much speed signed on to set up his late run, but it’s not as if he’s some deep closer that is terribly dependent on pace. I view him as the most likely winner, but I’m concerned that he, like so many Chad Brown runners at this meet, is going to be overbet. That’s why I’m making Tale of S’avall my top pick. I acknowledge that he’s not quite as likely to win this race, but he’s finished relatively close to Economic Model on a few occasions and does not deserve to be a significantly higher price. This Barclay Tagg trainee returned in strong form at Gulfstream this winter before proving no match for some of the top sprinters in the country in the Commonwealth at Keeneland. He, too, can use his tactical speed to avoid getting outrun in the early going, and this seems like a good spot for his return.
RACE 9: SMALL BEAR (#3)
The horse to beat is Outplay, who contested the pace in the Easy Goer on Belmont Stakes Day. I was not a big fan of him going into that race, and I’m still skeptical of him coming out of that effort. Outplay had been beating up on weaker fields in his prior two starts, and was no match in the Easy Goer for winner West Coast, who had trouble at the start of that race and proved far superior to his rivals. The Pace Projector is predicting that Outplay will be able to control the pace on the front end, but I still think he’s beatable here. The runner that I’m most interested in using against him is Small Bear. I know that he beat an off-the-turf field last time, but there were some solid runners in that race and he made a mockery of them. This horse has improved by leaps and bounds since the winter, and he already owns a win at this distance. If Dylan Davis can keep him relatively close to the pace, I think he can use his strong late kick to run down the favorite.