PICKS

Race 1:   6 - 2 - 5 - 1
Race 2:   13 - 2 - 4 - 5
Race 3:   7 - 6 - 3 - 2
Race 4:   4 - 1 - 10 - 11
Race 5:   7 - 4 - 10 - 5
Race 6:   7 - 4 - 9 - 10
Race 7:   8 - 1 - 7 - 9
Race 8:   11 - 4 - 5 - 12
Race 9:   3 - 9 - 5 - 4
Race 10:   7 - 4 - 6 - 10

PLAYS

(Guide - WIN: recommended win/key horse at fair odds; UPGRADE: value horses I picked underneath to consider upgrading in vertical/horizontal wagers; USE: runners to include in vertical exotic wagers with Win horse)

RACE 1: BOLD LOOKER (#6)

#5 Sidekick will attract plenty of support for Shug McGaughey as he stretches out around two turns for the first time. He looked like one that would appreciate added ground when closing in his sprint debut, and he did take a step forward going a mile last time. However, he also got a pretty good trip and was one-paced through the lane while riding the rail. The upset winner of that race does have real ability, and the speed figure came up strong. I won’t be surprised when he wins at a short price, but I’m intrigued by some others. #2 Golden Alchemist debuted in a salty maiden event at Belmont last month and put in a good effort to get up for second behind talented debut winner Saint Tapit. This son of Nyquist looks like one that shouldn’t mind some extra distance, and Chad Brown is wasting no time getting him all the way out to 9 furlongs. He seems perfectly logical and I slightly prefer him to Sidekick. My top pick at a bigger price is #6 Bold Looker. This horse debuted going two turns as a two-year-old and ran like one who needed the experience. He was a bit sluggish early and was trying to make up ground while racing through traffic, a bit green in behind horses. He was off for a long time after that, but I liked the way he was finishing in his sprint return last time out. This lumbering son of Arrogate feels like one that is much better suited to two turns, so I’m expecting him to step forward as he stretches out.

WIN: #6 Bold Looker, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 4: BLAME IT ON MARY (#4)

#10 Tis a Pity could possibly go favored in this spot as she moves back up to the New York-bred allowance level. I actually thought she put in one of her better efforts to win last time over U Should B Dancing, who has been in career form. However, now she has to turnback to 5 1/2 furlongs, and she arguably found this distance to be a little short for her when she tried it last summer. I think the distance will prove perfect for her main rival #4 Blame It On Mary. Though this filly is just 1 for 16 during her career, she’s made just 4 turf starts and they’ve been some of her best efforts. She nearly got the job done in the final race on Belmont Stakes day when just unable to hold off a resurgent Palace Gossip in the last furlong. A repeat of that effort will make her awfully tough here, and she strikes me as one that will appreciate the slight cutback to 5 1/2 furlongs given her propensity to fade late in her races longer. She has plenty of speed and is drawn well outside of some main pace rivals. The other horse that I want to use at a much bigger price is #1 Patria. This filly possesses speed from the rail and could find herself on the front end early. While she’s never earned a competitive speed figure racing on dirt, she does have some turf in her pedigree. Sire Bustin Stones gets a strong 15% turf sprint winners, and the dam is a half-sister to some runners who had success on grass.

WIN: #4 Blame It On Mary, at 5-2 or greater
UPGRADE: #1 Patria, at 20-1 or greater

RACE 5: SEBARAY (#7)

#10 Sweeping Giant figures to be a prohibitive favorite in this maiden claimer as he drops in for a tag for the first time. He showed some ability in his first couple of starts up here last summer, closing to be second behind the talented Limited Liability on debut before putting in another good effort in August. He’s been on the shelf for a long time since trying a stakes at Monmouth last year and this drop upon return doesn’t inspire confidence. I’m going in a different direction with a couple of first time turfers. #4 Mad Magic showed some ability in his sprint debut at Churchill. That was just a $20k maiden claimer, but he was staying on well in the latter stages of that race and earned a respectable speed figure. He was claimed out of that spot by Ian Wilkes, who switches him immediately over to grass. He has pedigree to handle this surface, as his dam is a half-sister to Globetrotter, who was G1-placed on turf. My top pick is #7 Sebaray. This horse showed significant improvement off the trainer switch to Ray Handal in his last start, traveling well before losing some momentum in behind tiring runners in upper stretch. He was intended for turf that day and I like him getting on this surface. His dam has produced 4 turf winners, including stakes winner English Affair and Seruni, who was G2-placed grass. He has the tactical speed to be prominent throughout in a race that features a murky pace scenario.

WIN: #7 Sebaray, at 6-1 or greater
USE: 4

RACE 7: BE BETTER (#8)

I’m a little skeptical of #7 Creative Minister as the likely favorite in this Curlin. He’ll be awfully tough for this field to handle if he runs back to his third-place finish in the Preakness. And I suppose one can forgive his Belmont since he doesn’t necessarily have to be a 12-furlong animal. Yet they asked an awful lot of this horse in a short period of time during the Triple Crown season, and I wonder if it’s taken a toll on him. He’s looked a little dull in his recent workouts, actually having to be asked a bit more than today’s uncoupled stablemate Wolfe Country in a couple of their recent drills. I want to look elsewhere at a short price. Chad Brown and Todd Pletcher both have entered some promising prospects. #9 Artorius has a stellar pedigree, by Arrogate out of top sprinter Paulassilverlining. He ran well to win a strong maiden event at Belmont Park last time, but I’m a little skeptical of him stretching out further in distance. I think this spot is a great fit for #8 Be Better. This son of Uncle Mo showed some hints of ability closing behind Jack Christopher in his sprint debut last summer. He needed plenty of time off after that, but he’s returned in strong form at Monmouth this season. He overcame a slow pace to break his maiden two back, and took a big step forward to beat a solid allowance field last time, drawing off impressively at the end. He gives the impression that more ground will suit him and Luis Saez should be a good fit for a horse that can take a while to hit top gear. The other runner I would use is #1 Western River, who will obviously have no problems handling the distance, exiting a 1 1/2 mile allowance win last time. I worry about a lack of pace, but he’s moving in the right direction.

WIN: #8 Be Better, at 2-1 or greater
USE: 1

RACE 10: SHAOLIN (#7)

The likely favorite does very little for me in this confusing starter allowance finale. #10 Built Different looks somewhat appealing at first glance as she drops out of a much tougher optional claimer. However, she was never a serious threat that day and I didn’t see anything overly positive in her only other turf start against weaker company. If she’s a short price, I’d rather look elsewhere. #4 Rosemary Potatoeshas to be considered off her trip last time. She was going to win that June 30 claiming affair, but was repeatedly steadied through the lane when locked inside behind the leaders. She also ran deceptively well two back when against a track bias. She may have to improve slightly to beat this group, but she’s in better form than it appears for a low-profile barn. My top pick is first time turfer #7 Shaolin. I find it somewhat interesting that Jordan Wycoff dipped in to purchase this filly for $60k at Keeneland this month after she won a $30k maiden claiming race at Churchill. There’s obviously some intention to get this filly on the turf, and she has pedigree for it. The dam achieved her only victory on turf and has produced 2 grass winners. The dam is a half-sister to Sweet and Flawless, who was G3-placed on turf. I think this one can improve with the surface switch and she picks up Flavien Prat.

WIN: #7 Shaolin, at 6-1 or greater
USE: 4