PICKS

Race 1:   7 - 8 - 3 - 5
Race 2:   4 - 1A - 5
Race 3:   13 - 1 - 7
Race 4:   4 - 1 - 2 - 6
Race 5:   11 - 2 - 3 - 10
Race 6:   3 - 1A - 11 - 8
Race 7:   6 - 7 - 2 - 8
Race 8:   11 - 1 - 6 - 7
Race 9:   3 - 4 - 5 - 7
Race 10:   12 - 10 - 16 - 15

PLAYS

RACE 7: WINTER POOL (#6)
I’m somewhat against both Joe Sharp horses in this field, as they each figure to take money off blowout victories at Churchill Downs. The one that I want no part of is Runnin’ Ray. This horse did come home pretty fast when taking a one-turn mile event at Churchill Downs last time, but he was beating a much weaker field that day. Horses have not come back out of that race to run particularly well, and I’m skeptical that he can repeat that effort stepping up in class and stretching out in distance. Hombrazo is a little more appealing, as he achieved his last victory going two turns against slightly better company. That was his first start for Joe Sharp, and he won during a time when the Sharp barn was sending a series of live runners at Churchill. The stable has since cooled off a bit, and I think there are other more appealing options in this field. My top pick is Winter Pool. This gelding tried this level at Churchill last time and put in a strong effort to just miss. He was steadied badly coming out of the starting gate and did well to make a sweeping move to the lead in upper stretch before he was passed in the late stages. A repeat of that performance with a clean break should make him pretty tough to beat, and he seems like one who should relish this 9-furlong distance. I would also use Beachwalker at a price. This horse is obviously a little slow on speed figures, but he was hindered by a slow pace last time and has handled distances this far and beyond in the past.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 2,7,8
Trifecta: 6 with 2,7 with 2,4,7,8,10

RACE 9: HARVARD (#3)
First Captain is undoubtedly the horse to beat in this highly competitive edition of the Curlin, but he does have some questions to answer at a short price. This will be his first teset around two turns, and he needs to finally step up and run a faster TimeformUS Speed Figure than the 105 he earned for his workmanlike Dwyer victory. I believe can prove capable of conquering both challenges, but I’m not sure that I’m keen to take a short price finding out. If looking beyond the favorite, there are a variety of appealing options. I’ve become a big fan of Parx shipper Beren, who rides a three-race winning streak into the Curlin. He handled his first two-turn test last time, but I’m not sure that I believe he’s a true router. I’d personally prefer to see him in the Amsterdam this upcoming Sunday. Dynamic One is a difficult read as he drops in class for Todd Pletcher. He obviously ran a winning race in the Wood Memorial and is competitive here off that performance. However, his surrounding races aren’t nearly as encouraging. My top pick is Harvard, who makes his stakes debut after reeling off two consecutive victories in the Midwest. This full-brother to champion Classic Empire really delivered going this distance at Churchill Downs last time. He set an honest pace while racing well within himself early before kicking for home nicely, gamely fending off a pair of talented older runners. Dack Janiel’s and Claytonthelionheart returned from their defeats in that race to complete the exacta in a fast N1X heat at Saratoga on opening week. Furthermore, Rodolphe Brisset is 8 for 31 (26%, $4.45 ROI) with last-out winners in dirt routes over 5 years. I’m hoping Harvard can control the pace under an aggressive Luis Saez and outstay them late.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 4,5,7
Trifecta: 3,4 with 3,4 with 1,2,5,7