by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

Now Available: Exclusive Saratoga betting strategies and unlimited TimeformUS PPs for the Saratoga meet!
On every Friday through Sunday at the Saratoga meet, get exclusive access to betting tickets for David Aragona’s Top Plays, including multi-race bet constructions and other exotic tickets. Also get exclusive access to David's Highlight Horses, as well as opinions on all stakes races. Learn more

PICKS

 
Race 1:   2 - 5 - 1 - 7
Race 2:   6 - 2 - 10 - 4
Race 3:   8 - 6 - 3 - 4
Race 4:   5 - 2 - 4 - 1
Race 5:   7 - 1 - 5 - 4
Race 6:   6 - 2 - 5 - 7
Race 7:   5 - 8 - 2 - 4
Race 8:   4 - 2 - 3 - 8
Race 9:   4 - 6 - 2 - 11
Race 10:   2 - 5 - 8 - 4
Race 11:   9 - 12 - 1 - 8

TOP PLAYS

 
RACE 2: TALK SOFTLY (#6)
There are plenty of fillies with interesting turf pedigrees in this race. Radiant Beauty and Brattata are both out of dams that were stakes winner on the turf, Lyrical Tale is a half-sister to Thundering Sky, and Chipolina’s dam is a half-sister to talented turf horses like Sea Queen, Nereid, and Gioia Stella. They're all worth a look, but my top pick is Talk Softly, who flashed brief speed on dirt in both of her starts, but figures to move way up with this surface switch. Her dam was a confirmed turf sprinter who won 5 of 10 starts on grass, including a stakes. I liked Talk Softly’s Fasig-Tipton sales workout, in which she went a furlong in 10 2/5 seconds while displaying more of a turf action, and I think we're going to see a different filly this time.

RACE 5: GIANTINTHEMOONLITE (#7)
This is an interesting affair in which horses that are dropping in class, like Deep Sea, are meeting runners that are moving up off strong efforts, like Scarf It Down. I think race flow is going to play a major role in the outcome, since the Pace Projector is predicting a situation that favors horses on or near the lead. The expected front-runner is longshot Giantinthemoonlite, and I think he's very dangerous here. Charlton Baker has excellent numbers with layoff horses. Over the past five years, he is 7 for 32 (22%, $2.81 ROI) with horses coming off layoffs of greater than 180 days in NYRA dirt sprints. He actually didn't run that badly in his two starts at Aqueduct over the winter and may just be faster than these if he's sent early.

RACE 6: DESERT DUCHESS (#6)
A few horses in this field are coming out of the race at this level that was run on August 9. The runner that I really don't want this time is runner-up Madame Uno, I know that she defeated some of today's rivals in that event, but she got an absolutely perfect trip, setting a slow pace (indicated by blue color-coding in the PPs) in a race that was dominated by horses that rode the rail. I thought the unluckiest horse in that race was Desert Duchess, who got a very peculiar ride. Despite the fact that she's been more of a speed type in the past, she was wrangled to the back of the pack by Joel Rosario, and just was never able to make much of a late impact as the early leaders sprinted home. All things considered, she actually did quite well to even get up for fourth. This rider switch signals to me that they're looking to have her more forwardly placed once again.

RACE 7: DR. SHANE (#5)
Of all the runners coming out of the first race July 22, the one that may have run the best race after winner Grand Sky is Dr. Shane. After all, the pace of that race was quite slow for the distance (indicated by blue color-coding in the PPs), and few horses made strong rallies from the back of the pack. Despite having to swing widest of all into the lane, Dr. Shane was actually making up good ground late and did well to nearly get up for second. This horse has definitely taken a step forward on turf and the 5 1/2 furlong distance really seemed to suit him after he had flattened out going 7 furlongs in his prior start. There is plenty of early speed in this race, since New York's Finest, Saratoga Giro, Uncle Youdge, and D'funnything all prefer to be forwardly placed in the early going.

RACE 8: TOMMY T (#4)
This is a pretty competitive maiden field full of possibly well-meant first-time starters, but I think there's a clear deserving favorite in this group. Tommy T goes out for a low-profile trainer, which may give some handicappers reservations, but this horse deserves serious respect based on his debut effort. He was well bet that day, going off at 3-1 odds for connections that don't usually take that much money. Though not noted in the short comment, he was off about a length slowly in that first start, and did well to rush up into contention on the backstretch. From there, he made a good run down inside approaching the stretch before having to angle out off the heels of eventual winner Phi Beta Express in the lane. Phi Beta Express ran 6 Beyer points and 10 TimeformUS Speed Figure points faster when winning his subsequent start. Weather Wiz, the third-place finisher from Tommy T’s debut, also came back to put forth a respectable effort when stretched out to two turns.

RACE 9: ALABAMA BOUND (#4)
This race presents an interesting situation. The top contenders in this race look pretty evenly matched, so trips are likely to play an important role in the outcome. The Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, but I'm somewhat skeptical. While I agree that Alabama Bound is going to be the early leader, I just don't see where the other speed is coming from. She is the only confirmed front-runner in this race, and I just have trouble believing that runners like Bree's Got Heart and Frosty Lady are going to be sent that hard in an effort to press her. Alabama Bound had no excuse to lose when she was overbet in a similar spot two back, but now she's coming into this race off an effort that muddies her form. In her last start, there was a ton of speed on paper, so Javier Castellano had no choice but to rate her from her far outside post position. That's just not the sort of trip that is going to work for this mare, as she went wide around both turns and couldn't pass runners late.

RACE 10: READY FOR RYE (#2)
I find it puzzling that Ready for Rye's connections have focused so intently on running this horse in dirt races throughout this career despite the fact that some of his best efforts have come on the turf. His overall record on turf is just 2 for 5, but his three losses came at the hands of some of the most talented turf sprinters in the country. He set the pace before fading in the 2015 Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint. Then he made just two starts on grass in 2016, but they were both excellent. He was a close third behind Pure Sensation and Disco Partner in the Jaipur, and then he was beaten by only a couple of lengths by similar foes in the Belmont Turf Sprint in the fall. There is not that much early speed in this field, so he should work out a great trip stalking the pace along the rail.