PICKS

Race 1:   6 - 10 - 5 - 1
Race 2:   3 - 5 - 2 - 6
Race 3:   1 - 3 - 4 - 2
Race 4:   4 - 8 - 7 - 5
Race 5:   4 - 6 - 1 - 7
Race 6:   5 - 10 - 2 - 3
Race 7:   5 - 1 - 3 - 9
Race 8:   2 - 5 - 3 - 1
Race 9:   10 - 6 - 2 - 3
Race 10:   6 - 9 - 5 - 8

PLAYS

(Guide - WIN: recommended win/key horse at fair odds; UPGRADE: value horses I picked underneath to consider upgrading in vertical/horizontal wagers; USE: runners to include in vertical exotic wagers with Win horse)

RACE 3: GOOD MEDICINE (#1)

Both Most Wanted Man (#2) and Tiz a Giant (#3) exit the same race at this level going 1 3/16 miles. The former arguably had the tougher trip since he had to go wider on the far turn. However, Most Wanted Man had his chance to get up for second in the lane and just didn’t really finish off the race. I don’t exactly get the vibe that more ground suits him as much as I do from Tiz a Giant. This Michael Trombetta trainee handled 11 furlongs when running a good second at this level two back. I like him stretching back out and won’t be surprised if he shows a bit more tactical speed this time. Todd Pletcher has the two other runners with considering. I thought Outperform (#4) ran fine in his turf debut, just hitting his best stride a little too late. However, I have some doubts about the quality of that affair and there’s no guarantee that added ground will suit him. My top pick is Pletcher’s other runner Good Medicine (#1). I thought he really improved with the stretch-out in distance in his two starts going longer at Belmont. He held on well for second behind the talented Balthus on May 20 and then made a nice run into the trifecta on June 18 despite breaking slowly and getting a wide trip. They did risk him for a tag last time, but I thought he again stayed on well that day, and it’s not as if this field came up much tougher than that one. Flavien Prat has ridden well for the Pletcher barn, and I thought this one would be a fair price.

WIN: #1 Good Medicine, at 5-2 or greater
USE: 3,4

RACE 5: CONTROL FUNCTION (#4)

Christophe Clement holds a strong hand here, as he sends out a pair of contenders who could vie for favoritism. Eylara (#1) has been short prices in all three of her U.S. starts, and is still searching for her first victory in this country. I didn’t think she had a major excuse in either of her last two starts, and she’s arguably stepping up to meet a tougher field this time. I prefer the other Clement runner Classic Colors (#6). She closed impressively to get up for the win two back, defeating next-out winner Marvelous Maude. She wasn’t as effective last time when finishing behind Eylara, but she just didn’t seem to handle the added distance in that 11-furlong affair. I like this cutback for her, and I think she’s still not fully exposed as a lightly raced 4-year-old. I could say the same about my top pick, Control Function (#4). I know she looks a little slow coming into this, as she earned an inferior speed figure in her only turf start against maiden claiming company last year. However, she won that race like one who had greater potential than the level would suggest. She was protected in her next start on Tapeta at Gulfstream, but could never reel in the gate-to-wire winner. She’s been off for a long time since then, but she’s been training very well for her return. It appears that this daughter of Kitten’s Joy has taken a step forward since we last saw her compete, and I think she could actually be a fair price despite going out for the Chad Brown barn.

WIN: #4 Control Function, at 4-1 or greater
USE: 6

RACE 6: BANTERRA (#5)

This New York-bred maiden event looks like a matchup between two fillies who finished second on debut. Security Code (#10) exits the faster race, having finished second to next-out stakes winner Maple Leaf Mel. I thought she put in a game try that day, chasing the winner with determination while well clear of the rest of the field. She’s obviously going to be tough to beat if able to produce a similar effort, but I wonder how much she upside she has coming out of that race given how professional she seemed on debut. I prefer Banterra (#5), who also finished second to a talented winner when crossing the wire 6 lengths behind Miracle. That foe returned to disappoint slightly when she faced stakes company next time out. However, I nevertheless think Banterra has room for improvement off that debut. She got a somewhat educational trip, as she broke from the outside post position and was wide into the turn before tucking in behind some rivals. She ultimately ended up moving wide at the three-eighths pole before flattening out in the late stages. Steve Asmussen does typically have his runners ready to win on debut, but this one may do better with a start under her belt. She’s trained well out of that race and I don’t mind the rider switch to Flavien Prat. A first time starter would have to be pretty good to beat either of these runners, but Stonewall Star (#2) seems like a candidate to get into the mix. She’s trained well for her debut and Horacio DePaz can certainly win with a first time starter. I’ll use her with the pick.

WIN: #5 Banterra, at 9-5 or greater
USE: 2,10

RACE 9: UNION LAKE (#10)

The expected scratch of Smash Ticket takes some of the speed out of this race, but they still figure to be moving up front. That makes the task of Hot Peppers (#2) a little more difficult, since she appears to be committed to setting the pace from her inside post. She’s one of the few runners from her barn to have success at this meet when she finished an excellent second in the Grade 1 Test. I thought she was game to fend off heavy favorite Matareya for second after setting a fast pace in a race that fell apart. There was some bumping in the stretch, but it didn’t appear to significantly affect the outcome. She’s awfully tough to pass when she makes the lead, and looks like the one to beat. Angitude (#6) could also take some money off her third-place finish in the Wilton Stakes. That was going a mile, but she’s been effective sprinting in the past and just seems to be an improving sort. She set the pace last time, but Joel Rosario will likely have to adapt to a stalking role this time. She’s a contender, though I preferred another. Union Lake (#10) showed promise as a 2-year-old, and has seemingly come back in strong form since returning from the layoff this year. She was game to sneak up the rail to break her maiden two back, and improved upon that performance when stepped up against winners last time. Third-place finisher Repealing returned to win out of that race, as did today’s rival Bank On Anna. She’s working well coming into this and should sit the right trip from her outside slot.

WIN: #10 Union Lake, at 3-1 or greater