by David Aragona
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Race 1: 5 - 4 - 6 - 1
Race 2: 3 - 6 - 2 - 9
Race 3: 3 - 6 - 5 - 7
Race 4: 3 - 11 - 5 - 7
Race 5: 8 - 1 - 5 - 2
Race 6: 2 - 3 - 9 - 5
Race 7: 4 - 8 - 1 - 5
Race 8: 3 - 1 - 4 - 6
Race 9: 6 - 4 - 8 - 5
Race 10: 1 - 8 - 4 - 2
RACE 6: HOWDYOUMAKEURMONEY (#2)
The two fillies drawn down towards the inside both have a right to take to this surface after fading in their debuts on dirt. Doc Doc Rock was sent off as the even-money favorite that day and didn’t have much to offer after showing brief speed. However, she seems like one that is destined to do better on this surface. She had a bit of a turfy look to her prior to her debut, and her pedigree indicates that she should handle this surface. Her dam was Grade 3 placed on the turf and this filly is a half-sister to multiple turf winner Daring Duchess. I’d use her, but I’m more interested in the filly to her inside who finished just ahead of her last time. Howdyoumakeurmoney showed excellent early speed in that dirt start before coming to a stop in the final furlong. While she doesn’t have a ton of obvious turf pedigree, she’s by Freud and her dam is a half-sister to some Texas-bred turf horses, including a multiple stakes winner on that surface. This filly had worked like she had some ability prior to her debut and I think she may just now be getting on the right surface.
Win: 2
Exacta: 2 with 3,5,9
RACE 7: VOODOO ZIP (#4)
Between the two Chad Brown runners, I prefer Emaraaty and think he is the horse to beat in this spot. He looked like a horse with a real future when he made his U.S. debut at Saratoga two years ago and he’s arguably been a bit of a disappointment since then. However, I thought he was significantly compromised last time at Aqueduct when he got caught behind a slow pace while racing wide around both turns and had little chance to make up ground. I’m not too concerned about the layoff since he’s been rained off the turf multiple times since then. He’s not a horse that I’d be running to the windows to bet at a short price, but I do think he’s the most likely winner. The other Brown runner Principled Stand does have upside in just his third career start but he needs to run a lot faster than he did last time, when he barely bested the inferior Red Storm Risen. I’m taking a shot against these Brown runners with Voodoo Zip. This horse has really stepped forward over the course of his last 3 starts. He was a dominant maiden winner at Gulfstream, and then had a poor trip in his first start against winners at Belmont. He got caught inside at a point when the race was falling apart and lost all momentum steadying in traffic. Even with that trouble he almost beat Red Storm Risen, who just missed to Principled Stand. Voodoo Zip came out of that race to beat a N1X allowance field last time going 7 furlongs and he did so while closing on a day when speed seemed to have an advantage on the turf. I don’t mind the stretch-out to a mile and he can use his tactical speed to work out the right trip.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,3,5,8
Trifecta: 4,8 with 4,8 with 1,3,5,9
RACE 8: PRINCE OF PHAROAHS (#3)
Gold Panda and Big Bobby figure to vie for favoritism in this New York-bred allowance event. The former showed ability in his debut when staying on well behind the promising duo for Water’s Edge and King Angelo. He then took a significant step forward in his second start, showing vastly improved early speed to wire a field in the slop. He earned a strong 106 TimeformUS Speed Figure for that performance and a repeat of that number will make him tough. However, he is coming back just 15 days after that maiden win. Big Bobby was no match for the impressive Judge N Jury at this level last time but he still ran a respectable speed figure to be second. I do wonder if this horse was just ready to fire on debut because he really hasn’t moved forward at all since that unveiling. He’s obviously a major player once again, but I thought Gold Panda had more upside between the two favorites. Anotehr 3-year-old to consider at a better price is Work Out. He never had a chance last time after dumping his rider and running off prior to the start, and probably should have been scratched. My top pick, who should also be a square price, is Prince of Pharoahs. This 4-year-old gelding returns for Linda Rice with prior form that makes him competitive here. He ran poorly as a heavy favorite when last seen in February at Aqueduct, but he was off for a long time after that so something may have gone wrong. He had previously run well going this distance on Jan. 8 and I love the way he’s training for his return. Furthermore, Linda Rice is a strong 5 for 13 (38%, $4.30 ROI) off layoffs of 120 to 240 days on dirt at Saratoga over the past 5 years.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,4,6
Trifecta: 3 with 1,4 with 1,4,6,7
RACE 9: BACKTOHISROOTS (#6)
Maven is arguably the horse to beat in this Lucky Coin as he returns from Royal Ascot for Wesley Ward. He wasn’t particularly competitive in that King’s Stand and now finds himself in a more realistic spot back on domestic soil. However, he’s going to take money off his victory at Keeneland back in April and I have some doubts about the quality of that race. Runner-up Boldor is an accomplished dirt horse who hasn’t run quite as well on the turf since that runner-up finish to Maven, and third-place finisher Joker On Jack is an inferior Wesley Ward stablemate who ran poorly up here earlier in the meet. Maven has thrown in his fair share of clunkers in his career, including as the favorite in the Mahony Stakes over this course and distance last year. He’s not for me. I actually think Pulsate might be the horse to beat as he gets back on turf. He just missed in this race last year, and it appears that he’s returned in top form as a 5-year-old. They took a shot on dirt last time, but now he’s back on his preferred surface and he has the tactical speed to work out the right trip. My top pick is Backtohisroots. We haven’t seen this 5-year-old for a long time, but he was in career form when he last completed a race at Saratoga just over a year ago. He was an impressive allowance winner at the 2020 meet and took money in the G3 Belmont Turf Sprint Invitational off that score. He lost his rider at the start and never participated that day. However, now he returns for John Terranova, who is 6 for 19 (32%, $3.21 ROI) off 240+ day layoffs over the past 5 years.
Win: 6
Exacta Box: 4,6
Trifecta: 6 with 4,8 with 4,5,7,8
RACE 10: GAILHORSEWIND (#1)
Lady Valentine is probably the horse to beat in this race, but I’m not thrilled with her at a short price. She got a great trip stalking Pathetique last time and was going nowhere in the stretch, only getting close late because the winner hit a wall in the last sixteenth of a mile. She handled the turf well enough, but that was the weaker division of two maiden races run on that July 24 card. I think there are more interesting options at better prices. I am interested in Pruning as she makes her NYRA debut for Shug McGaughey. This filly took a nice step forward in her second start at Colonial Downs last time when she arguably moved to soon and was reeled in late. She’s clearly still a work in progress but I like that she has some tactical speed and I think she fits nicely in this field. My top pick is Gailhorsewind on the stretch-out. I admit that I don’t know much about this trainer, other than the fact that he’s briefly had stakes horses like Alwaysmining and The Critical Way in his barn at different points in the past. This is just a filly who I’ve been waiting to see stretched out since her debut. It probably isn’t ideal that it took her connections three additional starts to make this move, but I do think she will appreciate the added ground. She’s a daughter of Flintshire out of a dam who did win going two turns on grass. She doesn’t give off the vibe of a sprinter, as she’s not quick on her feet and often hits her best stride too late in her races. I find it interesting that the connections are adding blinkers this time, which may be a sign that she will be more forwardly placed stretch-out. I don’t mind the switch to Ricardo Santana, who has been known to get aggressive in turf races.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,3,4,8