by David Aragona
Now Available: TimeformUS Saratoga PPs and Betting Strategies
Gain access to TimeformUS PPs for all 40 days of the Saratoga meet, plus betting strategies – recommended wagers for each of David Aragona's daily Top Plays, fully constructed multi-race tickets including daily Pick-4s and Pick-5s, and additional strategic information around playing every card. You will also receive exclusive access to David's Highlight Horses, as well as opinions on all stakes races. Learn more ›
Race 1: 4 - 6 - 5 - 2
Race 2: 7 - 6 - 2 - 5
Race 3: 8 - 1 - 7 - 3
Race 4: 5 - 9 - 3 - 10
Race 5: 2 - 7 - 4 - 3
Race 6: 8 - 7 - 1 - 2
Race 7: 5 - 4 - 2 - 3
Race 8: 3 - 7 - 5 - 4
Race 9: 12 - 13 - 2 - 8
RACE 2: ANNA RAE (#7)
Asian’s Way has to be considered the horse to beat off her last two efforts, both of which might be good enough to take down this bunch. She was probably aided by a muddy track two back when she destroyed a field of conditioned claimers, but she backed up that performance last time with her troubled third place finish. Joel Rosario had a ton of horse underneath him as he entered the stretch on Asian’s Way, and he made the risky decision to try to knife through a hole on the inside. It briefly appeared as if there was room, but the hole quickly shut on him and Asian’s Way got completely sawed off. Considering that she lost all of her momentum, she actually gathered herself remarkably well to nearly get up for second. This time, there is little speed signed on, so it might be wise to revert to the front-running tactics that worked two back. I’m using her, but I think she faces some legitimate rivals. The horse that I prefer is Anna Rae. This filly just got the wrong trip last time when she had to break from the rail. There was no clear speed in that race, and she ended up getting into a duel with another rival, speeding up after the first quarter to register an unreasonably taxing interior fraction. She understandably tired late, but it was encouraging to see the mare that she dueled with, Archumybaby, return to win at this meet. Anna Rae was claimed out of that spot by Robertino Diodoro, who has compiled an outstanding record with these cheaper types. He is 10 for 28 (36 percent, $2.46 ROI) first off the claim with horses running for tags of $25,000 or less at NYRA in dirt sprints. Anna Rae now draws an ideal outside post position and the seven furlong distance should be perfect. One other runner that I want to include is Blaze Star. She got a nightmare of a trip last time as she was always losing momentum behind runners. She’s run competitively on occasion and should not be completely dismissed.
RACE 3: UNION PATRIOT (#8)
I was actually hoping that this race would come off the turf because I have a stronger opinion now that it will be contested over the main track. Horses like Hit a Provisional and Grand Banks are still going to take money in this spot off their solid turf performances. While both of them have some pedigree to suggest they may handle the dirt, they’ve already proven that they are quite proficient over grass, so accepting a short price on either one of them in a dirt race seems unwise. I’ve been waiting for MTO entrant Union Patriot to be entered in a dirt race. I realize that this filly, too, has been meant for turf so far in her career, but I think she’s yet another example of how sire Union Rags tricks connections into running on turf. For whatever reason, we have seen a plethora of Union Rags progeny being pointed for turf careers despite the fact that he is a terrible turf sire. Since the start of his stud career, Union Rags’ progeny are just 13 for 279 in their turf starts – a win rate of only 4.7%. By comparison, even a poor turf influence like Utopia wins with 7% of his turf starters. Trainer Tom Morley certainly knows what he’s doing, but it appears that there’s something about these Union Rags sons and daughters that makes trainers want to try them on turf. Union Patriot doesn’t even have much turf pedigree on her female side, as her lone sibling to handle grass was by Cape Blanco. Actually, this is a much stronger dirt family, as her dam is a half-sister to millionaire dirt router Summer Colony.
RACE 5: TEQUILA SUNDAY (#2)
This is not the kind of race that I’d usually want to play, but I think there’s a horse in here that is significantly superior to this field in the talent department. If Tequila Sunday can ever work out a decent trip, she’s going to break her maiden at this level. I know that she was advantaged by an unfair start when she crossed the wire field on June 23, but she still ran a legitimately fast speed figure that day. Since then, things have not gone her way. She was shuffled back in the early going of that July 14 race, and actually ran on well against a tougher field than the one she’s meeting here. Then last time she got an impossible trip over a speed-favoring surface. A 14-horse field is never going to be kind to a filly who doesn’t perform well when she has to run in traffic and despises a wet track. Considering that, I thought she closed valiantly after getting shuffled back to last soon after the start. Today, it’s only a field of eight runners, and she should be able to work her way into the clear early, given the number of participants that are just uncompetitive. I strongly prefer her to horses such as Long Eyelashes, who is untrustworthy, and Party in the Sand, who has done no significant running in her races. Tequila Sunday is a large, robust filly who will have no trouble handling the seven furlongs, and I think today is the day that she finally earns that well-deserved victory. The other horse that I want to use most prominently behind the top selection is Promise Me Roses. She faced tougher company in her first two starts as a 2-year-old and had some trouble breaking from the rail second time out. She registered a fast workout in late July for this return.
RACE 8: SHE’S DELIGHTFUL (#3)
I suppose My Roxy Girl brings the strongest credentials into this race, but she’s not an easy horse to pick on top. She’s now finished second in 5 consecutive races and just doesn’t appear to have that winning instinct. I don’t dispute that she’s run well in her races, but I just feel that she’s likely to pick up another minor award here. Take Charge Aubrey has some more appeal among the favorites. I thought she ran well to win when stretched out in distance two back, and she just couldn’t quite handle the rise in class in the New York Oaks last time out. I don’t mind the turnback to seven furlongs for her and she’s drawn well on the outside. I’m certainly using her, but this is a very competitive race, so I think we can get a little more creative. A few horses are coming out of the race at this level on July 28. That was a much stronger field than this one, as each of the top two finishers, Satisfy and Fair Regis, would be heavy favorites in this race. Out of Orbit finished ahead of the two other fillies exiting that race after contesting the pace, but I thought that She’s Delightful ran the stronger race. This filly was caught wide exiting the backstretch, and had to race in the 5-path all the way around the far turn. According to Trakus, she ran 20 feet farther than Out of Orbit and lost to that rival by only a length. I thought She’s Delightful took a step forward off her return race on the turf, and there’s a strong chance than she can do even better here. There is no clear front-runner in this race, and Javier Castellano figures to be more aggressive this time, as she ran her better races when she was able to stalk from close range over the winter.