PICKS

Race 1:   4 - 6 - 1 - 5
Race 2:   2 - 5 - 4 - 6
Race 3:   5 - 1 - 3 - 2
Race 4:   4 - 6 - 7 - 2
Race 5:   5 - 8 - 2 - 1
Race 6:   5 - 4 - 7 - 10
Race 7:   7 - 3 - 4 - 6
Race 8:   1 - 4 - 6 - 2
Race 9:   8 - 1 - 3 - 10

TOP PLAYS

RACE 4: TOM’S MUSIC (#4)
Gidu and Pocket Book are likely to go off as co-favorites in this spot. The former, a Pletcher-trained son of Frankel, has the pedigree to be a real runner and must be respected, while the latter is the only horse in the race with positive turf experience to her credit. I have no major knocks against them, but I just want to call attention to a longshot that could outrun his odds. Tom’s Music didn’t do much running in his first start, but it is worth noting that the track was quite speed-favoring on that afternoon, which may have compromised whatever late kick he might have offered. He was claimed out of that race by Carlos Martin, and is immediately switched to turf. It makes sense, since his dam was a two-time turf winner and he is a half-brother to a winner on this surface. His prior trainer, D. Wayne Lukas, is not known for winning with his debut runners, so it’s likely that he needed that start anyway. Perhaps this is too tough a spot for him to win, but he’s definitely one to use in trifectas and such.

Win/Place: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 2,6,7
Trifecta: 6,7 with 1,2,6,7 with 4

RACE 6: ANY QUESTIONS (#5)
Win With Pride is the horse to beat, but I don’t think he has any kind of major edge on this field, even as he drops slightly in class. I prefer him to Keepingitquiet, who gets a mildly negative trainer change to Gary Gullo, who has poor numbers with his turf starters (46 Trainer Rating). I’m trying to beat them with Any Questions. I know that his last race was somewhat disappointing, but I think he ran a bit better than it seems at first glance. Kantune was the lone speed in that race, and Any Questions had to be sacrificed to any extent, going after him around the far turn through a third quarter in a snappy 23.14 seconds. He got passed in the stretch, but never gave up and was even trying to re-rally as they approached the finish. Now he gets a trainer change to Jeremiah Englehart, who has been doing well with turf starters in recent months.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 4,7,9,10

RACE 7: ORECCHIETTE (#7)
Battlement figures to go favored here, but I’m a bit skeptical about her repeating her last race. She faced a very different situation that day as she got yielding ground to run over and a fast pace to close into. This time, the turf should be firm and the Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring runners on or near the lead. That could benefit Heavenly Score, who possesses good tactical speed and put forth a respectable showing in the Coronation Cup last time. She’s definitely on my tickets, but my top pick is Orecchiette. This filly ran well in her debut at the Spa last summer, and I think her two turf sprints as a 3-year-old are a bit better than they appear. She was green when winning her maiden two back, switching leads multiple times through the lane, and then last time she was held up in traffic on the turn before angling into the clear for the drive. I’m not sure we’ve seen the best of this runner just yet, and I think her recent speed figures could have been higher considering the form of her competition.

Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 3,4,6