by David Aragona
Now Available: TimeformUS Saratoga PPs and Betting Strategies
Gain access to TimeformUS PPs for all 40 days of the Saratoga meet, plus betting strategies – recommended wagers for each of David Aragona's daily Top Plays, fully constructed multi-race tickets including daily Pick-4s and Pick-5s, and additional strategic information around playing every card. You will also receive exclusive access to David's Highlight Horses, as well as opinions on all stakes races. Learn more ›
Race 1: 2 - 1A - 6 - 4
Race 2: 2 - 11 - 4 - 9
Race 3: 2 - 5 - 3 - 6
Race 4: 4 - 6 - 10 - 5
Race 5: 6 - 1 - 7 - 8
Race 6: 6 - 10 - 1 - 3
Race 7: 6 - 4 - 9 - 1
Race 8: 7 - 2 - 3 - 1
Race 9: 6 - 1 - 5 - 10
RACE 1: MINI MILES (#2)
With the scratch of likely favorite Belgian, Mohican probably moves into the role of public choice. This horse tried tougher company last time and now gets some needed class relief. I’m not his biggest fan, but I recognize that he can win. Canadian Flyer may be more dangerous second off the layoff after being left in to get a run over the dirt last time. I’m using both of these runners, but I’m taking a shot with Mini Miles. If you just isolate his turf sprints, he’s run a couple of races that would make him very competitive here. His career debut at Woodbine last year was an excellent effort, and he just didn’t appear to handle seven furlongs in his second start. I liked his maiden win at Aqueduct in November, and I’m willing to excuse his first start against winners at that track, as he failed to make the lead that day. Some may be turned off by the poor efforts in his last two starts, but he never had any shot at getting a mile two back and then didn’t handle the dirt last time. This horse is very fast in the early stages, and I think the slight turnback to 5 1/2 furlongs suits him perfectly. Eric Cancel needs to just blast out of there from this rail post position.
RACE 3: BIG MUDDY (#2)
The most reliable runner in this race is Point to Remember, who is supposed to be a significant favorite based on his July 22 effort going this distance. Some may argue that he hung in deep stretch of that race, but I just think he was defeated by a horse, Wooderson, who had everything his own way up front and is not without some talent. The top two came home the last three furlongs in 36 2/5 seconds, which is pretty fast for that distance. The horse I don’t want out of that race is Domain, who was right up on that very slow pace and had no excuse not to go on with the leaders in the last quarter-mile. I’m definitely using Point to Remember, but I think he might have run into another dangerous Todd Pletcher runner in Big Muddy. On paper, this horse’s debut looks unspectacular, as he earned by the far the slowest last-out speed figure in the field and never got within 10 lengths of the leader. However, the replay tells a different story. He lost contact with the field in the early going but kicked things into high gear for the final quarter-mile. The early pace of that race was fast, but speed was holding well on July 26, which somewhat mitigates the pace scenario. While some others were closing in that maiden race, none was doing so with the same vigor as Big Muddy. This colt flew across the wire and quickly galloped out ahead of even the winner by the time they hit the clubhouse turn. I’m not too concerned about the stretch-out in distance given his pedigree to handle it. Furthermore, Pletcher has a frighteningly strong record in this situation. Over the past five years, he is 11 for 20 (55 percent, $5.64 ROI) in nine-furlong dirt maiden races at Saratoga.
RACE 9: CUARENTA (#6)
This finale is a tricky race in which none of the likely short prices are all that appealing. Lemon Blitz may go off as the favorite, but I don’t trust this runner. He ran well two back in his first start for Jeremiah Englehart, but he failed badly in a dirt experiment last time and he’s been a vet scratch twice since that race. Clearly, something is keeping him off the racetrack, and I don’t trust him to get back to his best effort here. The two runners with the best recent turf form come out of the same race. Riendo and Millies Party Boy are both dropping out of maiden special weight company. I thought Riendo did well to stay involved for most of the 9-furlong journey last time after rushing up to contest the pace from a wide post position. Millies Party Boy never really got involved from the back of the pack in that same race, but he’s been keeping much tougher company in a number of spots and now he finally gets the class relief that he needs. I’m using both of these horses, but I think this is a race where a new face could make some noise. Cuarenta was risked for a tag in his dirt debut last time and he didn’t do much running. He was sluggish early and made up a bit of ground late before galloping out fairly well. His connections apparently don’t think much of him, but at least they do appear to be recognizing that he’s probably a turf horse. We don’t yet know much about Forty Tales as a sire, but he has gotten a turf winner. On the dam’s side of his pedigree, Cuarenta is clearly bred to prefer turf, as he is a half-sibling to runners that handled both turf and synthetic surfaces, and his dam was strictly a turf horse. Surprisingly, Todd Pletcher actually does very well with these runners. Over the past five years, he is 5 for 9 (56 percent, $7.13 ROI) with second time starters going from dirt to turf in maiden claiming races.