by David Aragona
 

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PICKS

 
Race 1:   3 - 1 - 5 - 2
Race 2:   5 - 9 - 4 - 8
Race 3:   2 - 1/1A - 8 - 4
Race 4:   2 - 1 - 4 - 3
Race 5:   5 - 6 - 2 - 3
Race 6:   4 - 6 - 9 - 3
Race 7:   3 - 5 - 9 - 1
Race 8:   3 - 7 - 1 - 9
Race 9:   8 - 6 - 1 - 11

TOP PLAYS

 
RACE 1: RED ZINGER (#3)
Just Right and Red Zinger finished a nose apart when they last met in an Aug. 6 maiden race, and they figure to be evenly matched in the wagering for this race. Just Right did well to rebound from his disappointing Belmont debut, in which he appeared to be unfocused while never lifting a hoof. Blinkers clearly got his mind on running last time. He chased a legitimate pace and held on well to be second, but the race was dominated by horses who raced toward the front end throughout. Given the race flow, I thought that Red Zinger actually ran the better race. Red Zinger was off a touch slowly and had to rush up into position early. While he never threatened the winner, I thought he did well to make up ground toward the end while rallying wide. It was a good step forward off his debut, in which he finished behind La Fuerza in the Rockville Centre after racing greenly. He strikes me as one who will continue improving with added distance, and I think he possesses more early speed than he’s shown in his two starts thus far.
 

RACE 3: BIG MISCHIEF (#2)
I’m not against either half of the Klaravich Stables entry. Merger Arbitrage is the one to beat, but she also has some questions to answer as she returns from a layoff dating back to last November. I’m not in love with her turf form overall, but she did hit her best stride when she was last seen in her final two starts of 2017. She’s going to attract plenty of support, and her price will be driven down even moreso by the presence of stablemate Supercommittee. This Rick Violette trainee fits at the level, and showed good versatility when rallying from well off the pace to be second last time. You can’t dismiss either one, but I hate picking entries like this at underlaid prices. I find many of the alternatives with prior turf experience tough to take, so I’m going with a first time turfer. Big Mischief showed a little ability in her debut at Monmouth, as she rallied determinedly to be third after dropping back around the far turn. She never changed leads in the stretch that day, but she still finished up reasonably well. I acknowledge that this filly doesn’t possess any significant turf pedigree to speak of in her female family, but she is a daughter of solid turf influence Into Mischief out of a Rock Hard Ten dam. That’s good enough for me, and Chad Brown actually has great numbers in this situation. Over the past five years, he is 5 for 14 with horses making their turf debuts while dropping into the maiden claiming ranks for the first time, and he is 3 for 4 ($7.80 ROI) doing it at Saratoga.
 

RACE 5: WITH EXULTATION (#5)
Mobridge is obviously the horse to beat despite losing his last start. Four runners come out of that July 12 race and return here, so it’s worth analyzing a few of the trips. Mobridge clearly should have won, as he made his typical premature, wide move to the lead on the turn. However, this time, instead of going on to a decisive win, he got to wandering about in the last eighth, and his drifting allowed Vincento to sneak up inside and grab the victory. Vincento is also a top contender here, but I feel that he was the beneficiary of circumstances last time and he will need to run better to beat Mobridge again. Danny Gargan claimed Mobridge out of that race and he’s shown he can be successful with turf runners in this situation. I’m definitely using him, but the horse that interests me most out of the July 12 race is With Exultation. This horse has run plenty of speed figures that would put him in the winner’s circle against this bunch, but he had trouble getting back into top form when he initially returned in 2018. Even though he failed to hit the board again last time, I think he took a step in the right direction. With Exultation was racing inside of Vincento in a tight spot along the rail for much of his trip. Yet, unlike the winner’s trip, things just never opened up for him in the lane. Jose Ortiz tried to angle him inside of the tiring speeds at the eight pole, but that quickly closed up and he was forced to steady to the wire. I recall NYRA paddock analyst Maggie Wolfendale feeling that With Exultation was finally starting to come around prior to that last race, and it’s possible he just never got the chance to show it. This time, he should get an honest pace to close into, and he’s run very well at Saratoga before. The other horse that I want to use prominently with my top pick is Changewilldoyagood. He may simply be faster than the other speeds in this field, and he gets an appropriate drop in class after running fairly well against tougher fields at Belmont.
 

RACE 6: DR. SHANE (#4)
This is among the most competitive races on the card, as you can make solid cases for almost all of the entrants in this 10-horse field. Bam Bam Blu may go favored after winning his turf debut against starter-allowance company in his most recent start. While he was beating a weaker field that day, he certainly did it the right way, forging past the loose-on-the-lead runner-up in the late stages. He’s a robust 6-yearold who appears physically capable of taking on tougher company. I’m using him, but others figure to offer better value. Stolen Pistol drops out of a salty 3-year-old stakes race, but I wish he had shown a stronger closing kick. If he can run back to his prior win at Belmont, he has a chance. A few of these contested the July 30 race at this level, and I think Pagliacci is the one you want out of that event. He had to wait for running room at the top of the stretch and had to alter course a few times while rallying. I’m using him, but I’m somewhat concerned about the pace of this race. While a few of these possess tactical speed, no one is as fast as Dr. Shane in the early going. This New York-bred will be making just his second start against open company, but I think he lands in a favorable spot. He ran well going this distance twice last summer despite not employing his favored aggressive running style on either occasion. I think shorter distances are better for him, and his dominant win going seven furlongs two back just speaks to how much he has improved under the care of Danny Gargan. Kendrick Carmouche will be taking no prisoners on the front end, and that approach has been very dangerous with the rails set at zero feet.
 

RACE 8: COMBATANT (#3)
This is one difficult handicapping puzzle. You have so many horses trying turf for the first time, coming off layoffs, or exiting poor performances. I suppose the classy Strike Power is the likely favorite as he makes his turf debut. On the surface, this looks like a good spot for him, as he won’t have to face the speedy Promises Fulfilled and he’s getting some class relief. He certainly has the pedigree to handle grass since he’s by Speightstown and is out of a dam who was best going long on turf. He seemed to take to the surface well in a recent workout over the Oklahoma course. I’m not against him in this spot, but he seems almost too obvious, and I don’t want to default to a horse like that just because the race is confusing. Rose’s Vision has run well while keeping solid company at Woodbine. He appears to handle turf and synthetic surfaces equally well, but I just get the sense that we’ve seen the best of him, and his best isn’t necessarily good enough to win this race. Three runners exit the Grade 2 Hall of Fame on Aug. 3. That race was run over a legitimately yielding turf course, as some handled the going and others did not. Furthermore, that was just a much tougher spot than this one, as the top four finishers in that race are all pretty talented horses. I think the horse you’re supposed to take out of that race is Combatant. Gidu set a legitimate pace as he basically ran off in the early going. It’s always difficult for the chasers in that situation, and Combatant was in the unenviable position of chasing three wide without cover. I thought he did well to reach contention at the top of the stretch before just flattening out in the late stages. As a son of Scat Daddy, he certainly had a right to not care for the yielding going. He’s bred to handle turf, and I think we’ll get a better performance out of him on a firm course. Furthermore, I’ve always thought that shorter distances might be better for him, so I like this slight cutback to a mile.
 

RACE 9: MARGIE CAT (#8)
Let’s say right off the bat that if Corey Scores draws into this race from the also-eligible list, she is clearly the horse to beat. For now, let’s assume that’s not the case. There are a number of first time starters from which to choose in this race but none possess overwhelming turf pedigrees. The one that interests me most is Short Pour, who is a daughter of good turf influence The Factor, and is out of dam that did best on synthetic and turf. This horse appears to be working reasonably well over the dirt for her debut, and it’s a positive sign that Jose Ortiz is named to ride. Among those with experience, I suppose Evan’s Nice Now can switch surfaces, and she actually showed some good speed in her debut. However, others appeal more at better prices. The one that I want to bet is Margie Cat. While she didn’t do any serious running in her debut, she performed like a horse that was struggling with the dirt. She has a quick, lawn-mower-like action to her stride, and that’s often indicative of a horse that will appreciate sprinting on turf. She certainly has the pedigree to handle this switch since she is a half-sister to Ghost Giant, who improved when switched to turf. Furthermore, there is plenty of turf breeding in her second generation, as her second dam was Grade 1-placed on this surface.