PICKS

Race 1:   2 - 5 - 6 - 3
Race 2:   2 - 8 - 5 - 3
Race 3:   6 - 5 - 4 - 1
Race 4:   3 - 4 - 8 - 6
Race 5:   2 - 3 - 4 - 10
Race 6:   10 - 1 - 4 - 2
Race 7:   3 - 8 - 7 - 2
Race 8:   1 - 2 - 7 - 3
Race 9:   8 - 9 - 2 - 10

TOP PLAYS

RACE 1: SPEIGHTFULL KITTEN (#2)
Discretionary Marq is likely to take all the money in this spot as he makes his second start after just missing in his debut at Belmont Park. He is, of course, a full brother to Grade 1 winner Discreet Marq, and figures to have a nice future for Christophe Clement. That said, I’m not sure that he ran quite as well as some may think in his debut, since he got a very fast pace to close into, and I believe he’s going to be an underlay. I’m trying to beat him with Speightful Kitten. This horse ran very well for Linda Rice in his first start back from a lengthy layoff last time, which was also his first start as a new gelding. The pace of that race was very fast (color-coded red in the PPs) and this runner just got tired in the late stages. I like this turnback 5 1/2 furlongs and I think he will take a step forward here.

Win: 2
Exacta Box: 2,5

RACE 2: ISOTOPE (#2)
Easy Way Out and North Eight Street are the two likely to take the most money here. The former has been a disappointment recently for Rudy Rodriguez after showing promise when she began her career. Easy Way Out showed nothing as the favorite last time, and now drops down the class ladder again. She’s not the kind of favorite I want to bet. I have similar feelings about North Eight Street, who did run a decent second on the class drop last time. However, I think she faces a better rival today in Isotope. I just have to get horses that were against the track on August 13, day that featured one of the strongest rail biases of this Saratoga meet. Not only was the rail the place to be, but the pace of that race was quite slow (indicated by blue color-coding), and she really never had a chance to close after a three-wide trip. That race’s runner-up, Friend of Liberty, who also got a three-wide trip, returned to run 9 Beyer points faster in her subsequent start. The pace isn’t predicted to be much faster here, but I think she can sit a bit closer early.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 5,8

RACE 4: BIXBY LOU (#3)
A few horses in this race have shown some decent turf form, but the one that interests me most is one that’s trying this surface for the first time. For whatever reason, Bixby Lou’s prior connections gave up on her before giving her a race on the grass, despite the fact that she has a turf pedigree. She is a half-sister to Laquesta, a two-time turf winner, and is sired by solid turf influence Harlan’s Holiday. Linda Rice does especially well in these situations. Over the past five years, she is 5 for 19 (26 percent, $3.12 ROI) first off the claim with maidens on the turf. This horse has speed, which is typically an advantage in one-mile races on the inner course.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 4,5,6,8

RACE 8: BLIND AMBITION (#1)
He may not be much of a price in this spot, but I just think Blind Ambition is a very likely winner of this race. I’m typically not a fan of horses stretching out in distance from sprints to routes on the turf. That said, I think 5 1/2 furlongs may have been too short for this horse, as he needed the length of the stretch to get up last time. His prior turf effort, which came around two turns at Gulfstream, was powerful. He’s always been bred to be a star on the grass, and his connections are just now finally focusing on the correct surface with him. Speed is so dangerous going a mile on this inner turf course, and I think he’ll find himself with a clear early lead against this group. Snap Decision is his main competition, but it’s hard for me to see him closing down my top selection given the likelihood of a slow pace.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 2,7
Trifecta: 1 with 2,7 with ALL