by David Aragona
Now Available: TimeformUS Saratoga PPs and Betting Strategies
Gain access to TimeformUS PPs for all 40 days of the Saratoga meet, plus betting strategies – recommended wagers for each of David Aragona's daily Top Plays, fully constructed multi-race tickets including daily Pick-4s and Pick-5s, and additional strategic information around playing every card. You will also receive exclusive access to David's Highlight Horses, as well as opinions on all stakes races. Learn more ›
Race 1: 1 - 3 - 4 - 7
Race 2: 7 - 2 - 4
Race 3: 2 - 6 - 4 - 3
Race 4: 8 - 7 - 3 - 5
Race 5: 7 - 4 - 8 - 9
Race 6: 8 - 9 - 6 - 4
Race 7: 1 - 5 - 3 - 6
Race 8: 3 - 7 - 10 - 8
Race 9: 6 - 7 - 2 - 13
RACE 1: OVER RIDER (#1)
I suppose that Bon Raison is likely to go favored as he drops to a bottom-level conditioned claiming race after facing much tougher foes in his recent starts at Gulfstream Park. However, when you dig through this runner’s form, I think there are some legitimate reasons to be concerned about taking this colt at a short price. First, he’s never run a particularly fast race on dirt. I know he was second to Vino Rosso once at Tampa Bay Downs, but Vino Rosso was basically participating in a public workout that day. Bon Raison improved on turf, which makes his last race pretty alarming. He was facing tougher foes, but I don’t like horses dropping off performances like that. The best alternative I can find is Over Rider. It’s worth watching his comeback race at Ellis Park last time because he was actually moving well coming to the quarter pole, but he lost all chance once the hole that he was attempting to go through closed up. Going back to his 2-year-old season, this horse had run multiple speed figures that make him a player in this race, and he did so going a mile. I think he can handle the two turns, and there’s also a chance that he could take a step forward off this juvenile performances now as a more mature racehorse. I love inside post positions going 1 1/8 miles on the main track, and jockey Ricardo Santana Jr. has been riding well.
RACE 2: COLLECTIVE EFFORT (#7)
Some may just concede this race to Therapist, who figures to go off as the heavy favorite. Therapist loves to win races, having crossed the line first in five of his seven starts. While he’s clearly kept the best company and run the fastest speed figures, I do think there are limits to this horse’s stamina. A mile is definitely within his grasp, but I do think he prefers one turn, as he’s undefeated over that race configuration. I wouldn’t argue with anyone who said that his best race ever came around two turns in the Cutler Bay, but he did get an honest pace to close into that day. I just think that the pace scenario of this race is going to be much different from the one he encountered at Belmont last time, and I believe that makes Collective Effort a viable alternative. Collective Effort was compromised at the start of that New York Stallion Series stakes, as a poor break put him toward the back of the pack. This runner is at this best when he can make use of his ample early speed, and I think the dynamics of this race will play in his favor. Forward Motion and Santo Antonio have some speed, but Collective Effort is just a superior horse. If Manny Franco can get him into a forward position, either on the lead or stalking, he figures to get the jump on Therapist, and I think that could make the difference. Collective Effort’s turf-route performances are better than they seem, as he had a tough trip back in April. I loved the race Collective Effort ran two back when he led wire to wire to win his maiden in his first start with blinkers.
RACE 5: MAJOR FORCE (#7)
The two turf sprints on this card are arguably the most difficult handicapping puzzles of the day. The scratch of likely favorite Captain Gaughen makes this one even more difficult to decipher. I definitely want to elevate Get a Valentine, who drops in class out of a much tougher optional claiming spot at Belmont. The pace of that race completely fell apart and he was attending it 3-wide, so I’m willing to excuse his performance. His prior form going this distance is quite good. I also want to use class dropper War Stroll, who turns back from a mile. This distance may be on the short side for him at this point in his career, but I think he’s one you have to include. My top selection is Major Force. Unlike some others in this race that are dropping off significantly better prior form, Linda Rice is probably just running this 4-year-old gelding where he belongs. They go a bit too ambitious last time when trying N1X allowance company, and are now wisely putting him back into a claimer. The thing to note about this horse is that he has yet to encounter a favorable pace scenario in any of his sprint races. He was able to overcome very slow paces two and three back, but he couldn’t pull off the same feat last time. It also didn’t help that Javier Castellano was unable to save ground and got spun out coming into the lane while others cut the corner. Given this horse’s potent late kick, I actually think 5 1/2 furlongs could be right up his alley, and he figures to be a fair price this time.
RACE 7: LADY MONTDORE (#1)
The two runners likely to attract the most support are Palinodie and Silver Shaker. These two actually traded decisions in a couple of races last fall in New York, but they have gone in different directions since then. Whereas Silver Shaker has lost twice at this level recently, Palinodie has tried her hand against graded stakes company in three straight starts, with some success. However, both are winless this year and thus still are eligible for this N1X allowance. While Palinodie does appear to have the class edge, Silver Shaker has been unlucky to lose both of her races this year. She moved a bit too soon in her first start off the layoff two back, as she was run down by her stablemate, who got to make the last run. Then last time, she beat a number of today’s rivals while making a late rush to get up for second despite being badly compromised by a slow pace. She seems like she should relish the stretch-out to 1 3/8 miles, and I slightly prefer her over the other likely favorite. However, there is an intriguing new face in this spot. Lady Montdore makes her first start in this country for the Tom Albertrani barn. I realize that Godolphin has not been sending its best European imports to this barn over the past few seasons, but it seems like it has acquired a very talented filly this time. The reality is that this horse would almost surely take significantly more money if she were going out for Kiaran McLaughlin, even though Albertrani does a good job with his turf routers. This filly wants to run all day, and she kept good company in France last year. As a daughter of Medaglia d’Oro with an American pedigree, she may really appreciate some firmer ground. Furthermore, I thought her recent blowout over the dirt last week was very encouraging.
RACE 8: MARCH X PRESS (#3)
Mentality is probably the most talented horse in this race, and I think the turnback works for her. Her three races so far this year have been excellent. She did well to close from the back of the pack into a slow pace in the Mizdirection, and then she survived a fast pace to win a tough allowance race two back. Last time, I thought she was a little unlucky to lose that stakes as probably the best horse, as closers did well there. I don’t mind the turnback in distance for her, but I am somewhat concerned that the pace of this race figures to be hot, with speeds Royal Inheritance, Awsum Roar, and Noble Freud drawn around her. I’m certainly using her, but I’m just a little concerned about her trip as the likely favorite. The horse that I want to bet is March X Press. I thought this filly was unlucky last time when she had subtle trouble on the far turn. She usually takes herself out of races in the early going, so I wasn’t surprised to see her at the back of the pack early. However, she got a bit keen heading into the turn, and Jose Ortiz allowed her to run up into a tight spot between horses. She ended up getting sawed off coming to the quarter pole, and had to duck inside for the drive. She didn’t finish up all that enthusiastically, but getting robbed of her momentum in upper stretch probably had something to do with that. I think she benefits most of all from this turnback in distance, as anything beyond 6 furlongs seems too far for her, and she’s likely to get a hot pace to close into.