by David Aragona
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Today's picks and plays have been updated for all races except the featured Caress (Race 7) coming off the turf.
Race 1: 5 - 1 - 6 - 2
Race 2: 12 - 8 - 2 - 1
Race 3: 2 - 5 - 1 - 3
Race 4: 14 - 13 - 4 - 1
Race 5: 9 - 8 - 6 - 11
Race 6: 6 - 4 - 1 - 2
Race 7: 9 - 3 - 4 - 6
Race 8: 3 - 7 - 6 - 9
Race 9: 12 - 3 - 7 - 10
RACE 3: MAZMANIA (#2)
I think there’s an opportunity to catch some value in this spot because I do not love either favorite. I have a little more confidence in Seam, who has paired up competitive speed figures in her last two starts, albeit against maidens. I thought she should have won two races back when she had every chance to go by a rival, and last time she took advantage of a very weak field. The horse I want to take a stand against is Overbrook. Her last speed figure makes her a standout, but I am suspicious of that race. Even though it came up relatively fast, the horses she defeated had run much slower in their surrounding starts, leading me to believe that it was a weaker race than the numbers suggest. I actually think Stormy Change is more dangerous off her dominant win against similar company at Monmouth. I’ll use her, but the horse I want to bet at what figures to be an enticing price is Mazmania. She’s had more chances than any other horse in this race, but she has really improved in recent months. She signaled that she was heading in the right direction three back and then solidified that improvement with her off-the-turf win in May. They got way too ambitious last time, and she actually didn’t run that badly relative to her superior competition despite finishing last. This race features some pace, so I don’t mind the turnback, and a potential wet track wouldn’t compromise her chances.
RACE 7: CHANTELINE (#9)
The two horses likely to attract the most support are Triple Chelsea and Lull. The former has turned into one of the best female turf sprinters in the country after reeling off four stakes wins through the first half of the season. She’s not a filly who needs to carry her racetrack around with her, and she seemingly can win using almost any running style. She actually broke dead last in her most recent start at Churchill and still was able to run down a good filly in Morticia late. Joe Sharp is so good at keeping these turf sprinters in top form. However, Lull may be just as talented. The question for her is the distance since she has run her best races going a bit longer than this. Both of her efforts this season have been stellar, as she did well to survive a fast pace at Gulfstream before losing the Just a Game by only 1 1/4 lengths to the top filly A Raving Beauty. If she can transfer that form to this sprint distance, she’ll be a handful. I’m using both, but the horse I want to bet is Chanteline, who should go off at a very generous price. This mare has only gotten the chance to run on turf four times, but she’s actually run exceptionally well in all of those races. Her turf debut came in a tough stakes race at Saratoga last summer, and she ran much better than her seventh-place finish would indicate. She showed speed through fast early fractions and got pushed out on the turn by a drifting rival. She was then even more unlucky in her subsequent start at Keeneland as she missed the break and put in a remarkable stretch run to get up for fourth. Since then, she’s won her last two turf starts, one of which was a win over Triple Chelsea. She beat weaker at Parx last time but was utterly dominant in doing so. I think Chanteline may be every bit as good as the top contenders here, and she’s flying under the radar.
RACE 8: HARANGUE (#3)
Sanavi looks like the horse to beat as he moves up in class off the claim. It appears that he was originally in Phil D’Amato’s barn coming out of that last race and trained in California until late June, but has since been transferred to Linda Rice. I always like to see Rice get aggressive with horses like this off a claim, and he’s one that should have no trouble handling the distance. He’s part of my play, but I’m taking a shot against him on the win end with Harangue. I thought this horse was somewhat interesting last time against a much tougher N1X allowance field, and he actually didn’t disgrace himself in defeat. This horse had been running against cheaper foes in the majority of his prior starts, so his new connections showed plenty of confidence stepping him up in class last time. He’s a horse that seems to run at a steady pace without making any wild moves, so the fast early pace of that race may not have suited him. He actually finished with some interest and quickly galloped out well ahead of the field after the wire. He clearly possesses the stamina to handle this 9 furlongs and I expect Ricardo Santana, Jr. to have him placed a bit closer to the pace this time. The other horse that I want to include prominently is Tiz No Bluff. I know that his New York form has been somewhat disappointing, but this horse may not care for a wet track, which he has encountered in his last two starts. Obviously the prospect of rain on Monday is a concern once again, but I really think that he’s a runner that will appreciate the stretch-out to 9 furlongs, and should not be dismissed.
RACE 9: ICY MANEUVERS (#12)
We’ll see how many horses entered for turf ultimately stay in this field, but this is a situation where I think the Main Track Only entrant may have these at her mercy. Of those within the main body of the field, Missbigtimes clearly owns the best dirt form, having placed in all three starts on that surface. She faded badly in her only start over a wet track two back, but she had a right to get tired that day after chasing a fast pace in her first start off a lengthy layoff. I think she’s one that you have to use, but I’m not convinced that she’s very good. Silencia should be another pace factor after showing brief speed in her debut, but she seems to be meant for turf. I’m against all of the others, including Mama Mary, who actually has some dirt pedigree but will get bet off turf form. I’m strongly in favor of the first time starter drawn to the outside, Icy Maneuvers. Rodrigo Ubillo can spring with a first time starter from time to time, as he did with Highway Star in a similar off-the-turf situation a few years ago. This filly’s dam wasn’t a very good racehorse, but she is a half-sister to Girlaboutown and Clutch Cargo, who both had some talent. Her workouts over at Belmont have been very impressive and she appears to be one with some ability in a race where the others may just not be intended to run on this surface.