PICKS

Race 1:   3 - 6 - 12 - 8
Race 2:   14 - 15 - 3 - 11
Race 3:   5 - 4 - 6
Race 4:   2 - 5 - 1 - 4
Race 5:   2 - 4 - 8 - 1
Race 6:   9 - 4 - 6 - 8
Race 7:   1 - 2 - 7 - 4
Race 8:   12 - 2 - 9 - 6
Race 9:   14 - 15 - 7 - 10

TOP PLAYS

RACE 1: THADDEUS (#3)
This is a classic Saratoga puzzle – a $20,000 maiden claiming race with a number of runners dropping in class as connections look to pick up a coveted win. The horse to beat is Your Secret’s Safe, who is skydiving out of maiden special weight races into this bottom-level claimer. He didn’t finish that far behind talented runners such as Donwell and Fayeq his last two starts and looks formidable here. However, I’m not sure that the turnback in distance really suits him, and his lack of speed is a concern. I’m taking a small shot against him with Thaddeus. He is also making a steep slide down the class ladder. However, unlike Your Secret’s Safe, his most recent performance was not good. That said, I think his rider made a tactical error that day by not sending him up to contest the pace. He’s run his best races when he’s been forwardly placed, and I think reverting to those tactics would serve him well here. At a big price, another horse that you might want to try to get into the exotics is British Bulldog. He’s run competitively in some tough races in the past and may actually be at his best as a closing sprinter.

Win/Place: 3
Exacta Box: 3,6,12
Trifecta: 3,6 with 3,6,8,12 with 3,6,8,12

RACE 7: SPANISH HARLEM (#1)
Blue Prize feels like the kind of runner that could be an underlay in this spot. This is a pretty confusing race with runners coming in from a multitude of directions, and Blue Prize’s lone U.S. start – in which she earned a respectable speed figure – sort of jumps off the screen. She was a Group 1 winner in Argentina, so she has every right to turn into a nice horse, but I don’t think she has much margin for error in this race. I’m trying to beat her with Spanish Harlem. This filly was simply in over her head in the Mother Goose last time. She actually took a run at Unchained Melody early before she was turned away coming to the top of the stretch. The margin of defeat looks bad, but she was basically eased late. Prior to that, she had shown that she can handle the dirt and appreciates a route of ground. There’s rain in the forecast, and a sloppy track would only enhance her chances. Furthermore, she has some tactical speed in a race that is predicted to favor runners racing on or near the lead.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,4,7
Trifecta: 1,2 with 1,2 with ALL

RACE 8: FAIR POINT (#12)
If this race stays on turf, it figures to be an all-out war, with about seven or eight horses who have serious chances to take down the top prize. It seems like there’s a fair amount of speed signed on, which could compromise the chances of horses such as Everything Lovely and Blue Bahia, both of whom are best going slightly shorter than today’s distance. Mississippi Delta is the horse to beat as she comes into this race in excellent form. While she’s at her best sprinting on turf, we got paid last time when she was an overlaid 6-1 in the Intercontinental. She can win, but I want others today. The horse that I want to bet is Fair Point. She loves this distance and is at her best when she gets an honest pace to close into. That was not the case in either of her two starts at Belmont when she was placed too close to the pace. This time, Jose Ortiz can let her drop back from this outside post position and make one run. Her morning line price of 9-2 would be fair.

Win: 12
Exacta Key Box: 12 with 2,6,7,9