by David Aragona
Now Available: TimeformUS Saratoga PPs and Betting Strategies
Gain access to TimeformUS PPs for all 40 days of the Saratoga meet, plus betting strategies – recommended wagers for each of David Aragona's daily Top Plays, fully constructed multi-race tickets including daily Pick-4s and Pick-5s, and additional strategic information around playing every card. You will also receive exclusive access to David's Highlight Horses, as well as opinions on all stakes races. Learn more ›
Race 1: 1 - 5 - 3 - 2
Race 2: 4 - 1 - 3 - 7
Race 3: 4 - 5 - 8 - 7
Race 4: 4 - 1 - 6 - 7
Race 5: 5 - 7 - 10 - 2
Race 6: 3 - 2 - 9 - 5
Race 7: 2 - 5 - 4 - 7
Race 8: 7 - 1 - 3 - 8
Race 9: 4 - 1 - 10 - 7
Race 10: 3 - 12 - 1 - 2
RACE 3: YUMMY BEAR (#4)
There are many to consider in this race, as all of the potential short prices appear to be somewhat evenly-matched. Most of the top contenders in this field are coming out of a pair of Belmont allowance races at this level on June 15 and July 8. Battle Station and Pagliacci lost by a neck as they dead-heated in June, and New York Song also was second by a neck in the July race. While these horses were all on the cusp of breaking through this N1X allowance condition in those respective races, they got great trips in those efforts. I actually prefer the horse that was subtly up against it from a trip standpoint in each of those races. Yummy Bear never got to save ground and did well to finish fourth on each occasion. On June 15, the pace of that race was actually quite somewhat slow relative to the final time, as horses had trouble making up ground. Yummy Bear did well to nearly win that race. Then last time he was hung out 3-wide all the way around the turn in a race that was dominated by horses that stayed inside. I know that he has lost a string of races, but I think he’s been in very good form. I’m hoping that he can work out a ground-saving trip this time, as there appears to be some speed in this spot that can help spread out the field. I’ll also use Hangman, who may appreciate the turnback in distance after running so well in his first couple of starts. He was simply overmatched last time.
RACE 4: MAGNIFIER (#4)
This is yet another highly competitive event. Lightning Buzz figures to attract support off the claim by Jeremiah Englehart and James Riccio. This horse has had trouble getting to the winner’s circle, but he clearly fits well at this level and there’s a strong possibility that the new connections could move him up. Zap Zap Zap has run races that would easily beat this field, but I’m getting bad vibes from this Todd Pletcher reject who now gets dropped to the bottom level off the claim by Brad Cox. While there are a few potential speeds in this race, like Nut Nut and Appealing Henry, they are hardly formidable pace presences. As long as Magnifier breaks cleanly, I have to think that Kendrick Carmouche is going to send him to the front. Danny Gargan acquired this horse in Florida and kept him there for a few starts. He put an inexperienced apprentice aboard this horse in two straight starts – one of which was successful, the other disappointing. However, in that last race, I thought this speedy horse wasn’t aggressively ridden away from the gate and ended up getting an uncomfortable trip while buried down inside for much of the race. He’s clearly better than that, and I think it’s meaningful that Gargan is bringing this one up to Saratoga, since he’s a trainer that is typically very selective about which horses he starts at this elite meet.
RACE 6: HIGH PROMISE (#3)
Course Correction is likely to take a significant amount of money off two solid efforts for Chad Brown. While he earned a much higher TimeformUS Speed Figure in his last race, I actually thought his debut at Keeneland was the better effort. He made a solid late move in that April 7 race, nearly catching his stablemate Vegas Kitten, who is a decent runner in his own right. He was sent off as the 4-5 choice last time out at Belmont, and I was somewhat disappointed with this performance. He got a good trip in the early going, reached contention, and just could not seal the deal. Perhaps something went wrong that day as it’s taken him nearly three months to return to the races, but I don’t need him at a very short price. I’m interested in some of the runners coming out of the fourth race on July 5. Midnight Tea Time had late trouble in that spot, where he was potentially going to win. I think he must be respected, but the horse who interests me most out of that spot is Prompt. He just was too far back right from the start and never got into the race. I’m using him prominently, but the horse I want to bet in this spot is High Promise. I’ve admittedly been a fan of this horse, and I like him getting another chance to stretch out to this marathon distance. He actually ran one of his best races when they let him go 10 furlongs at Belmont last year, and I think his recent form suggests that he’s doing very well. Luis Saez let him get totally out of position last time after he broke well. There was no pace in that race, and High Promise ended up getting shuffled all the way back to last by the top of the stretch. This horse has trained aggressively in the morning, and I hope Brian Lynch lets this horse use his speed today.
RACE 7: BRATTATA (#2) / TESORA (#5)
This race is extremely competitive. Mominou is probably the horse to beat off her solid efforts against older horses recently. I know others have been facing stakes company, but this filly has shown that she’s classy enough to stack up against this field, and I love this turnback in distance for her. She showed an explosive kick going five furlongs at Gulfstream when she won her maiden, and I think she’ll be tough to run down if she can run back to that effort. However, she’s also going to be one of the shorter prices in here, and I’m interested in others. I’ve been waiting for Brattata to get a chance going shorter. I thought this filly ran deceptively well sprinting early in her career, yet they’ve run her over longer distances in all of her subsequent starts. I had liked the one turn for her in the Wild Applause last time, but that race ended up featuring a very slow pace, and she was unable to make late headway. This race is supposed to feature an honest pace, as horses like Closer Still, Mominou, and Lady Suebee are all likely to show speed. Brattata has actually run fine in many of her two-turn races, and I think this turnback will intensify her late kick. She’s my top pick, but the other horse I want to use at a bigger price is Tesora. This filly’s five-furlong debut at Gulfstream was extremely impressive as she made a wild late run to get up to win while rallying from the back of the pack – something that isn’t easy to do at Gulfstream. They’ve tried going long with her in two subsequent starts, and she’s run well, but I think this turnback in a race with a bit of pace is what’s really going to work for her.
RACE 9: FOCUS GROUP (#4)
Soglio is likely to go favored here off a solid performance in the Stars and Stripes last time out at Arlington. This horse really put it all together two back when he finally broke through the N1X allowance condition at Churchill Downs after a number of tries, and he confirmed that forward move was legitimate with his effort last time. On the other hand, he did work out a fantastic trip at Arlington and I thought he hung a bit at the end of that race after nearly getting on even terms with the winner past mid-stretch. I’m using him, but I think you also need to consider the other Maker runner, Bronson, who had a much tougher trip in that same race. He got taken back to last early and made an ill-advised premature move while racing very wide into the far turn. He appears to be a horse that’s heading in the right direction, but I don’t fully trust him. Channel Cat can’t be dismissed off his fourth place effort in the Belmont Derby. This horse has been a massive longshot in his recent stakes efforts and he’s actually outrun expectations every time. He appears to be improving with added distance and now he’s landing in a more realistic spot. I’m using him. However, I can’t resist making Focus Group my top selection as he stretches out around three turns for this marathon. I’ve always maintained that the farther this horse gets to go, the better, so this 1 3/8 miles should be to his liking. I know he was defeated by Snap Decision last time, but Focus Group was up against a moderate pace that day and he had to alter course late when attempting to gather momentum. Each time he rides him, Jose Ortiz seems to learn a bit more about this horse and I still think he has a right to turn into a solid marathon performer for Chad Brown. The only problem with him is that he’s almost always a shorter price than he should be. Nevertheless, I won’t be swayed.
RACE 10: LADY CAMILLE (#3) / FROSTY LINZ (#12)
I think Lady Camille is a horse you can lean on in this finale. It’s worth watching her turf debut at Belmont last time, as she ran an exceptional race in defeat. The early pace of that race was fast for the distance, as all of the TimeformUS Pace Figures are color-coded red. Lady Camille was sent up to attack that pace soon after the start and was sent up four wide around the far turn. According to Trakus, she covered the most ground of any horse in that race, traveling 34 more feet than today’s rival Merlins Muse, who finished fourth. That was Lady Camille’s first start off a long layoff, and she figures to be fitter for this second start back. Michelle Nevin has done far better work with her turf horses in recent years, and I think this filly is clearly the one to beat in an otherwise competitive affair. While I think Lady Camille is the most likely winner, I also want to use Frosty Linz at a huge price. She has run better than it appears in each of her turf starts, as she got shuffled back two races ago, and then chased a runoff leader through suicidal fractions last time. This filly has really improved on turf, and now she gets a jockey switch to Ricardo Santana, Jr., who has been riding very well. I’ll use these fillies with Unparalleled, who has faced tougher horses in her prior starts, all of which came against maiden special weight company. She hasn’t quite run back to that solid third-place finish that ended her 2-year-old season in a pair of starts in 2018, so this drop in class is needed.