PICKS

Race 1:   3 - 5 - 4 - 6
Race 2:   1 - 7 - 4 - 5
Race 3:   2 - 3 - 5 - 1
Race 4:   4 - 8 - 6 - 2
Race 5:   9 - 6 - 10 - 8
Race 6:   4 - 10 - 7 - 6
Race 7:   1 - 6 - 4 - 3
Race 8:   6 - 8 - 5 - 2
Race 9:   16 - 1 - 13 - 9

TOP PLAYS

RACE 1: TRUE CHARM (#3)
The horse to beat is Battlement, who made a strong late rally to just miss behind Animal Appeal last time at Belmont. While she did put in an improved effort that day, it is worth nothing that the pace of that race was very fast, which aided her late run. This time, the Pace Projector is predicting a situation that favors horses on or near the lead, so the race flow may not be in her favor. I still think she must be used, but I’m trying to beat her with True Charm. I know that this filly’s recent form is awful, but she’s had excuses. She’s just not a horse who handles fast dirt, so you can throw out her last three efforts, and her most recent turf start at a mile was too far for her. Her turf-sprint efforts prior to that are actually fine, and I think she’s quick enough to go with Miss Kentucky in the early going. I prefer her to the other alternative, Pray for Bourbon, who got a perfect trip when facing weaker at Monmouth last time.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 4,5,6

RACE 2: FUNTASTIC (#1)
This is a pretty fun race since there are things to like about a slew of contenders. The horse to beat is Now in a Drive, who has had valid excuses in a number of recent starts and has actually run winning races on a few occasions. That said, he has had plenty of chances, and his form is exposed, so he’s unlikely to offer value. Mohican and Oiseau de Guerre are interesting as they return from long layoffs after showing talent as juveniles. I’ll include both of them, but my top selection is Funtastic, who gets on turf for the first time. While his most notable sibling is Horse of the Year Saint Liam, he’s actually a half-brother to four turf winners and may like this surface switch. He showed brief speed before fading in his debut, and he should be able to work out a nice stalking trip along the rail.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 4,5,7,10

RACE 3: BLENHEIM PALACE (#2)
Moana is a deserving favorite off her solid third-place finish behind top 3-year-old filly Unchained Melody in the Mother Goose. A repeat of that performance would make her formidable here. While I’ll certainly use her, I’ve been waiting for Blenheim Palace to get a chance in a dirt route. This 4-year-old filly actually showed plenty of ability racing over dirt in her debut last summer, making a strong late bid through the stretch going six furlongs. Her next two efforts, also sprinting, were somewhat dull, and she was subsequently switched to turf. She’s improved recently as the distances have gotten longer, which makes me wonder what she could have done had she ever gotten the chance to stretch out on dirt. Well, today we get to find out, and she should be a square price with Moana in the field.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 3,5

RACE 7: ROYAL EKATI (#1)
I’m not necessarily against Minsky Moment, who deserves to be the favorite in this race. However, I’m concerned that the “Chad Brown factor” could drive his price down to underlay territory. I’m a little skeptical that he can get back to the large speed figure that he earned two races back in the mud, and some of the runners in this race have an outside chance to beat him if he merely repeats his last speed figure. I’m going to take a small shot against him with Royal Ekati. This horse has had some minor excuses this year – he was against a speed-favoring track three back and then did not care for the mud two races ago. Last time, he was in a much tougher spot, and now he gets some class relief. I’ve always felt that longer distances would suit this horse, and he now gets to stretch out around two turns for the first time.

Win: 1
Exacta Box: 1,6
Trifecta: 1,6 with 1,6 with ALL

RACE 8: EPPING FOREST (#6)
I’m inclined to stick with the proven turf sprinters in this spot. I’m afraid of a horse like India Mantuana, but I’m concerned that 5 1/2 furlongs may be too short for her. Morticia is clearly the one to beat as she is 3 for 3 at distances between five and 5 1/2 furlongs and comes into this race in top form. There isn’t that much speed in the race, so she figures to be sitting a great trip perched just outside of No More Babies early. I’m using her, but I think the runner who will offer the best value is Epping Forest. I know she’s only beaten New York-breds recently, but she ran extremely well in both of those sprint starts this year in New York. Last time, she just couldn’t quite get the mile after making a premature bid for the lead at the top of the stretch. Jose Ortiz can sit just in behind the leaders and pounce.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 2,4,5,8