by David Aragona
 

Get the wagering strategy for this card in this year’s TimeformUS Saratoga Betting Strategies package, which includes PPs for each day of the meet, exclusive access to the daily Highlight Horse, multi-race ticket constructions, and additional analysis of every stakes race at the meet. More info ›

PICKS

 
Race 1:   2 - 11 - 7 - 4
Race 2:   6 - 4 - 2 - 5
Race 3:   8 - 7 - 2 - 3
Race 4:   4 - 7 - 6 - 5
Race 5:   2 - 4 - 13 - 1
Race 6:   8 - 6 - 1 - 9
Race 7:   6 - 10 - 3 - 2
Race 8:   8 - 7 - 3 - 9
Race 9:   2 - 6 - 3 - 1
Race 10:   3 - 4 - 7 - 1
Race 11:   8 - 3 - 11 - 7

PLAYS

 
RACE 2: MANIFEST DESTINY (#6)
With the scratch of Battle Station, Mo Diddley is likely to inherit the favorite's role. The dropdown on this horse is not terribly difficult to justify given the purse of the race, but it’s still not a positive sign. He was claimed for $40,000 by Joe Sharp last time and is now in for $25,000. Some barns run horses for less than their worth to get a win at Saratoga. However, this horse’s recent form would appear to suggest that he’s capable of winning a tougher race. I’m using both of these runners defensively, but I want to go in a different direction. My top pick is Manifest Destiny. This gelding made his first start off the claim for Rudy Rodriguez at the same level last time. He took no money, going off at a preposterous 15-1, and he performed in accordance with that lack of support. Yet now he’s coming back at the same level with Irad Ortiz named instead of Santana. Furthermore, given how untrustworthy the two favorites seem, this may be an easier spot than that last trace. Manifest Destiny had been in career form for his prior barn and one would imagine that Rudy Rodriguez would be capable of improving a runner like this. There isn’t a ton of speed in this field and he should be able to attain a stalking position. I’d also throw in Big Thicket underneath. This horse is best on the dirt and he may be improving for the Rob Atras barn.
 

RACE 4: EKHTIBAAR (#4)
If Candy Promises is the half of the entry that participates in this race, he’s likely to go off at a fairly short price. I was skeptical of him getting the 1 1/8 miles last time, but he did well to only lose by a nose at a higher class level. He was claimed out of that spot by Rudy Rodriguez, and is now dropping back down in class to the $25,000 tier. He’s a major player if he repeats his last effort, but that race going nine furlongs was significantly slower than his prior two efforts around one turn. He’s predicted to be out in front again and he’s a deserving favorite, but I prefer the other horse likely to take money, Ekhtibaar. This Ray Handal trainee has curiously raced on turf in half of his starts for the new barn even though that’s clearly not his preferred surface. His last two dirt efforts were quite solid, as he won with ease at Belmont three back and then bested a solid field at Laurel on July 4. Both of those races came around one turn, but I actually think he might be at his best going the two-turn 1 1/8 miles. It’s great to see Irad Ortiz climb back aboard, and I think he’s going to work out a great stalking trip in this affair. I would also throw in some of the recent claims, such as the Danny Gargan-trained Chief Know It All, and the recent Linda rice claim Heavy Roller. Both horses are obviously proficient going this far.
 

RACE 8: PUFFERY (#8)
Hay Field will probably win this race if she improves at all off the claim for Jason Servis. She was already running fast enough to win a race like this for her prior barns, and she actually has won at this level in the past. The only possible knock on this horse is the fact that they’re running her for $40,000 again instead of moving her up in class. That said, Michael Dubb likes to win races at Saratoga, so perhaps it’s nothing to be concerned about. Hay Field may just be better than these. That said, this is a competitive field around her and some horses figure to get a little lost in the wagering. I’m taking a shot against the favorite with Puffery, who is one of a few wild cards in this race. This filly wasn’t quite competitive at this level when she was in Mark Hennig’s barn, but this is the kind of horse who is supposed to move forward off the claim for sharp connections like trainer Rudy Rodriguez and owner Vincent Scuderi. However, we never got a chance to see what she can do for the new connections in that open N1X race last time since she completely blew the break. That spot may have been too tough for her anyway, as it’s somewhat interesting that the new connections even chose to run her above the New York-bred condition for which she’s eligible. She’s back down to that level here and I think she’s a viable alternative to the favorite if she takes the step forward that we expected to see last time. I’m not a big fan of Newport Breeze, who got a perfect trip when she won last fall at Belmont and may need a start off the layoff. Timely Tradition always shows up for this new barn, but I think she’s a cut below Hay Field. I would even throw in Shelley Ann underneath, since she’s won sprinting in the past and appears to be training well for her return.
 

RACE 9: EMARAATY (#2)
You can make a case for almost every horse in this competitive Bernard Baruch field. Qurbaan and March to the Arch faced off in the Forbidden Apple, finishing third and fifth, respectively, that day. Qurbaan was the favorite in that spot, and he did his usual act, hanging in deep stretch. This horse is obviously the class of the race, but his inability to seal the deal regardless of class level is a major concern. March to the Arch returned to improve in the Fourstardave last time, but he was never a serious threat to winner Get Stormy and was just passing tiring horses late. I’m using both of these defensively, but I want to focus on the Chad Brown runners here. Sacred Life may go off as the favorite after losing a close decision to the classy Lucullan in the Lure last time. That was only a restricted stakes, but the winner is a graded stakes type and Sacred Life was making his first start in nearly five months. If he steps forward at all out of that effort, he’s going to be a handful here. However, I slightly prefer Brown’s other horse at what is likely to be a square price. Emaraaty only beat optional claiming foes last time, but Dream Friend is turning into a decent turf runner and runner-up Frontier Market returned to win impressively. Emaraaty’s British form was fairly spotty, but he did record an impressive 120 Timeform Rating in the Netbet Sport Handicap in May 2018, and he nearly matched that performance in his U.S. debut. Perhaps getting firm turf and Lasix has allowed him to gain some much-needed consistency. Furthermore, he traveled very keenly in that stateside appearance last time, and he figures to settle better with that run under his belt.
 

RACE 10: GREEN LIGHT GO (#3)
This Hopeful drew an excellent field, as it features the winners of both major stakes for 2-year-olds at this meet, the Sanford and Saratoga Special, as well as a handful of impressive maiden winners. While I think you can make a valid case for a number of horses, I’m not trying to beat the likely favorite Green Light Go. I’ve been a fan of this horse since his debut, when he easily defeated the subsequent stakes winner Another Miracle. He won going 5 1/2 furlongs that day, but he’s built like a horse who wants to run longer distances, towering over many of his rivals. He relished the added furlong of the Saratoga Special, and he also got a good schooling that day. Junior Alvarado put him in behind horses in the early going, yet he seamlessly swung out at the top of the stretch and took command. He showed some greenness in the lane, ducking in as he pulled away, but he finished up strongly once Alvarado straightened him out. I don’t see him having any issue with the seven furlongs, and no one in this field has run faster than the 107 TimeformUS Speed Figure he earned last time out. As long as he continues moving forward, I doubt any of these can beat him. However, there are some maiden winners with ability in this field. Gozilla looks like the real deal off his visually impressive debut one race prior to Green Light Go’s Saratoga Special. He got a clear lead that day and was able to slow down the pace a bit before pulling away. However, there may not be any competitors as fast as him in the early going here, either. He has to get the seven furlongs, which is a question mark, but he’s the one who scares me most. I would also use Shoplifted, another one who got a decent education in his last-out win, and Basin, who hasn’t been as flashy as the other two Asmussen runners but nevertheless beat a strong field last time.