by David Aragona
 

Get the wagering strategy for this card in this year’s TimeformUS Saratoga Betting Strategies package, which includes PPs for each day of the meet, exclusive access to the daily Highlight Horse, multi-race ticket constructions, and additional analysis of every stakes race at the meet. More info ›

PICKS

 
Race 1:   7 - 2 - 6 - 5
Race 2:   7 - 9 - 2 - 8
Race 3:   4 - 7 - 8 - 10
Race 4:   2 - 1 - 9 - 8
Race 5:   7 - 2 - 8 - 1
Race 6:   7 - 4 - 5 - 2
Race 7:   7 - 2 - 6 - 1A
Race 8:   3 - 2 - 1 - 4
Race 9:   3 - 4 - 9 - 8
Race 10:   4 - 3 - 8 - 2
Race 11:   9 - 2 - 5 - 3

PLAYS

 
RACE 1: CLOONTIA (#7)
Startup Nation is obviously the horse to beat, but he’s not one that you can trust as he returns from a 21-month layoff. While he ran well when last seen in 2017, many layoffs had preceded that appearance as well. He hasn’t actually won a race since his 2-year-old season in 2014. He will obviously win this race if he returns in top form, but Chad Brown is clearly trying to get him off his hands by dropping him in for $25,000. Furthermore, it’s fair to be somewhat concerned about his running style, since he’s a deep-closing plodder in a race that doesn’t feature much early speed. Many will consider the horses coming out of the July 7 race won by The J Y as alternatives. I could use Blame the Thief, who has done well going longer in the past and did seem to improve off the claim by Rob Atras. However, my top pick is Cloontia, who just seems to fit the conditions of this race better than any of his rivals. He’s a turf router who is clearly best around two turns, so I’m not at all concerned about the 1 1/16 miles distance. He wanted no part of 5 1/2 furlongs last time, and he was compromised by a slow break. He actually ran quite well two back behind the talented Everyonelovesjames, and he also put in a good effort in his first start off the claim for these connections all the way back in April. I think he’s well-spotted here and he possesses the tactical speed to be close to the pace, so he shouldn’t be compromised by a slow tempo. The Steve Klesaris barn won a turf race earlier this week and they may get another here.
 

RACE 3: MY SACRED PLACE (#4)
The horse to beat in this race is Decorated Invader. The speed figures for his debut –both Beyer and TimeformUS –did not come back particularly fast, but that’s primarily due to the slow pace of that race. We saw fourth-place finisher Our Country return to win last week with a vastly improved speed figure. Perhaps he just took a big step forward, or maybe that July 11 affair is better than it seems. Decorated Invader ran far better than Our Country that day, since he was far behind the slow early pace and was closing best of all at the end. If he steps forward with routine improvement, he’ll be tough to beat. Fame to Famous ran faster in his debut, mostly because he was part of a faster race. He probably would have finished closer had he not been cut off by a drifting rival in the last eighth, but he ha d gotten a good trip up until that point. He’s a contender, but it’s just harder to trust this low-percentage barn. I’ll use both, but I’m interested in My Sacred Place in his turf debut. This horse doesn’t have overwhelming turf pedigree on the dam’s side, but his dam was a capable synthetic runner. However, he’s by good turf route influence Temple City, so I’m encouraged that he’s going to handle added ground on the grass. I liked the way he was finishing in his debut, with long, reaching strides, indicative of turf proclivity. He didn’t run as well last time, but he was also meeting a much tougher field, since winner Meru seems like a potential stakes horse. Servis has solid statistics with horses switching surfaces, so he figures to move forward here.
 

RACE 5: TUMBLING SKY (#7)
There are a pair of two-year-old maiden races at 6 furlongs on the dirt on this card, and it appears that this may be the stronger division. A number of the first time starters seem live, led by the $1.4 million yearling purchase Kittansett, who makes his debut for Chad Brown. This American Pharoah colt is a half-brother to turf winner Vigilante, and he may ultimately do well on that surface. However, he’s worked very well on the dirt for his debut, recording some fast times. Most recently, he easily handled an unraced horse named Structor on August 3 and was striding out very well past the wire. He should be dangerous, but there are some others to consider for very good barns. That includes Irish Front, who also has more of a turf pedigree, but seems to be doing well in his morning preparation for Todd Pletcher. I would even use Bellavia prominently, despite the fact that he goes out for the low-percentage Jena Antonucci barn. This son of Honor Code has a nice pedigree as a half-brother to Grade 2 winner Live Lively. I’ve watched a few of his workouts – mostly solo drills – and he appears to be some ability. All of these horses are part of my play, but my top pick is Tumbling Sky. Steve Asmussen has brought a good string of 2-year-olds to Saratoga this meet, and he’s starting a pair of live-looking runners in maiden races on Saturday. Tumbling Sky is by breakout freshman sire Competitive Edge and is from a sprint family that includes stakes winner Forest Music, the dam of Maclean’s Music. I really liked the long, reaching stride that was on display in his sales workout at the Fasig-Tipton Timonium sale in May. Since then, he seems to be preparing well in the mornings here at Saratoga. He easily dispatched of a workmate in a gate drill on July 28, looking like a quick horse who can win first time out.
 

RACE 8: GREEN LIGHT GO (#3)
This Saratoga Special drew a field of promising runners, many of whom seem capable of stepping forward off their maiden win. However, I believe they’ll all be hard-pressed to overhaul the likely favorite Green Light Go. I’m not one to heavily endorse horses at short prices, but I find it hard to go against this favorite. Green Light Go made his debut at Belmont, and he had some things go his way. He was allowed to set a slow pace on the front end in a race where some others had a bit of trouble in behind him. Yet I don’t think there was ever any doubt that he was winning that race, as he easily drew away in the final furlong under light handling with powerful strides. This horse is bred to be fast since he’s out of the dam Light Green, who was second in the Grade 1 Prioress going 6 furlongs. In his debut, he just appeared to be physically superior to the other 2-year-olds, as he towered over his rivals. That race was flattered when runner-up Another Miracle returned to win, improving his TimeformUS Speed Figure by 9 points. Green Light Go led all the way in that race, but he strikes me as one that can also sit off rivals. He may need to do so in a race loaded with speed. The Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace with Tuggle and King Snake predicted to be the main pace rivals. Tuggle ran well to win his debut in fast time, but he’s really bred to be a turf horse, so I wonder if he’ll be as effective over a fast dirt surface. Noose was visually impressive in his debut, but the race came back fairly slow. That said, at least he proved that he can rate behind horses and finish, so he should be charging late.
 

RACE 9: UNI (#3)
It’s not really my style to default to favorites, but I find it pretty hard to get past the 5-year-old mare Uni as she steps up in this Fourstardave. At first glance, it might seem like a tall order for a filly to compete against males in a Grade 1 race. Yet this is not the toughest division at this point in time, with no dominant force, especially since Bricks and Mortar is targeting longer races for the time being. When you remove the two females from this field, the group resembles the same ones that we saw in two Grade 3 events this spring, the Forbidden Apple and the Poker. The only real new face is Raging Bull, who is cutting back in distance after finishing behind Bricks and Mortar in two straight starts. I’ve always felt that a mile was probably his best distance, so I like this spot for him. He’s coming into this race in solid form and is clearly the one to beat among the males. However, it’s interesting that his regular rider Joel Rosario has opted to get off him and instead ride his new mount Uni. A mile is the best distance for her as well and she appears to be in the best form of her career right now. When she’s ready to run a top race, she is able to unleash a furious stretch rally that may be superior to every other runner in this field. Indeed, her TimeformUS Late Pace Rating of 124 is the highest in this field by 9 points. That’s especially significant in races that are likely to feature some pace, and that could be the case here with Dr. Edgar, Gidu, and Ostilio all likely to show speed in this spot. I realize that Uni will probably get overbet due to her fan following in this situation, but I also think that she’s the most likely winner.
 

RACE 10: LA CHANCLA (#4)
I’m not trying to beat likely favorite La Chancla, who seems like a filly with real quality in an otherwise lackluster N1X allowance race. This $775,000 juvenile purchase has all the upside after beating a solid maiden field at Belmont last time. She was off slowly and pushed in at the start of her debut, yet she still ran on well to be fourth. She was much more professional last time, showing improved early speed, coming through inside, and running down a loose early leader. Rodolphe Brisset is an amazing 7-for-11 (73%, $7.14 ROI) with last-out maiden winners on the dirt, so he clearly gets these horses to keep improving with maturity. A moderate pace seems likely so she'll have to avoid getting outrun early, but that's the only knock against this favorite. If she continues improving, I predict she’ll be too tough for this field to handle. Her main rival may be the potential speed Alisio. This Godolphin homebred filly was much the best over a muddy surface with the addition of blinkers back in December. As a 2-year-old, she earned speed figure that puts her squarely in the mix in this allowance field 8 months later, so she would be formidable with routine improvement. McLaughlin is 8-for-46 (17%, $1.53 ROI) off layoffs of 180 days or more in dirt sprints over 5 years. She is bred to be a nice one since her dam is a half-sister to $1.2 million-earner Better Lucky. Furthermore, the TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting that this race will favor horses on or near the lead and she could be the speed. I’m using her prominently as the main alternative. I’ll also throw in Havre de Grace’s daughter Graceful Princess, but I’m starting to wonder if she just hasn’t panned out after an auspicious start to her career. She was against a slow pace last time and the turnback may help her, but I wouldn’t accept too short of a price on that one.