by David Aragona
Now Available: TimeformUS Saratoga PPs and Betting Strategies
Gain access to TimeformUS PPs for all 40 days of the Saratoga meet, plus betting strategies – recommended wagers for each of David Aragona's daily Top Plays, fully constructed multi-race tickets including daily Pick-4s and Pick-5s, and additional strategic information around playing every card. You will also receive exclusive access to David's Highlight Horses, as well as opinions on all stakes races. Learn more ›
Race 1: 3 - 6 - 8 - 1
Race 2: 4 - 1A - 8 - 6
Race 3: 5 - 3 - 6 - 2
Race 4: 14 - 3 - 5 - 6
Race 5: 5 - 9 - 3 - 13
Race 6: 7 - 5 - 8 - 6
Race 7: 1 - 12 - 8 - 5
Race 8: 7 - 5 - 4 - 6
Race 9: 5 - 3 - 1 - 2
Race 10: 2 - 3 - 1 - 6
Race 11: 1 - 4 - 3 - 7
RACE 3: VIRGINIA ELOISE (#5)
Lyrical Lady is likely to go favored in this Adirondack off her visually impressive score on opening day at this meet. That appeared to be a loaded field of maidens, and she absolutely dusted them, opening up an advantage at the start and widening with authority once set down in the lane. However, that was going 5 ½ furlongs, and now she must stretch out an extra panel while dealing with some series pace rivals. Horses like Mucho Amor and Grandma Gertie were quickly away from the blocks in their respective debuts and they could make Lyrical Lady work harder to secure the front. I think she’s the horse to beat, but I believe she may find herself vulnerable in the final furlong. The horse that appears most likely to pose a late threat is Virginia Eloise and she’s my pick in this race. I loved what John Velazquez did with her in her debut. Sent off as the 3/5 favorite, he rode her with the intention of giving her an education. Putting her down on the rail in an uncomfortable spot just behind the leaders, she had to relax, wait for room, and then shoot through a narrow opening on the inside in the lane. I thought she handled it all professionally, and I liked the way she opened up at the end of that race. I recognize that she wasn’t beating any killers in that spot, but it seems like the perfect stepping stone to a race like this. She’s the one horse in this field that is really bred to relish added distance, as a daughter of Curlin out of an A. P. Indy half-sister to Liam’s Map and Not This Time.
RACE 7: A GREAT TIME (#1)
I found this to be one of the trickiest races on the card, as you can build a solid case for most of the participants. I guess most people will view Munchkin Money as the horse to beat given her superior speed figures, but I don’t want this horse at a short price. She’s really more of a 7-furlong specialist, even though she won that finale at Aqueduct last year going shorter. I think the speed figure of that last race came up a bit fast and her prior form doesn’t make her too formidable here. A few fillies exit a race at this level on July 21. I somewhat prefer La Naturel over Conquest Tizfire among the horses coming out of that race, but I generally want to search for new faces in this spot. Sister Sophia interests me as she turns back in distance. I thought she ran well going six furlongs two back, and I like that she’s finally putting races together. However, it’s hard to pick a deep closer like her in the top slot. Queen Mum is another price that I want to use. She has the pedigree to be successful on turf and I think her grass debut last time may not be a true indication of her ability. She was put into the difficult position of having to chase a run-off leader, and she just got tired at the end. I think she may actually want to go shorter, and she deserves another chance on this surface. I’m using both of the aforementioned fillies, but my top pick is A Great Time. I want to see Ricardo Santana, Jr. blast off from the inside post position with this filly in an attempt to wire the field. This horse is a true 5 1/2 furlong turf sprinter and her best weapon is her speed. That was taken away from her last time when her rider inexplicably rated her off the pace. He ended up having to steady behind a tiring runner on the turn and lost all chance. I wouldn’t put too much stock in that performance. If she can get back to her first start off the layoff in May, in which she just got run down by the talented Fear No Evil, I think she’s a threat to beat this bunch. Mike Trombetta can be dangerous in these races and I think he comes in with a sneaky contender here.
RACE 8: YOSHIDA (#7)
The Fourstardave Handicap drew only six runners, but it’s a stellar field. Heart to Heart is likely to be favored as he has enjoyed a fantastic season. He is just a neck shy of having won three Grade 1 races this year, but this is undeniably the toughest group he has taken on in 2018. The run-up to the first turn will be critical for this speedster, as Voodoo Song is drawn just to his outside. While I respect Heart to Heart, I don’t want him as the favorite from a stalking position. Voodoo Song will be dangerous if Heart to Heart lets him go on with it. However, he’s the type of runner who likes to hear his feet rattle, and rain earlier in the week could compromise his chances. That said, he has been in stellar form this year. Made You Look finished just ahead of Voodoo Song in the Poker back in June, and he has really improved for Chad Brown. I thought he did well to hang on two back after moving a little too soon against Inspector Lynley. Last time, while he never threatened the winner, he nevertheless finished well to be second in arguably the toughest one-mile turf race contested this year. I’m definitely using him, but my top pick is Yoshida. I know that they’re asking a lot of this horse to make a trip to Royal Ascot and come back to contest a Grade 1 less than two months later, but I believe he’s up to the challenge. I loved the way this runner progressed through his 3-year-old season, and I actually think this slight turnback to one mile is ideal for him. He clearly doesn’t mind a little give in the ground, and he possesses a versatile running style that should allow him to adapt to whatever pace scenario develops.
RACE 9: BREAKING THE RULES (#5)
Patternrecognition is likely to be the favorite given his string of fast speed figures and many solid efforts against future stakes horses. I’m not against him, but I just think this horse has had his chances, and I’m not convinced that he’s returned in top form this year. He was supposed to win last time in what appeared to be an easier spot, and now he faces a couple of intriguing, up-and-coming 3-year-olds. His stablemate Mask is an interesting turnback in this spot, as he ran well sprinting in his career debut. I thought he got a somewhat uncomfortable trip last time out in the Easy Goer, but he was also somewhat disappointing as the 7-5 favorite. Chad Brown has had trouble getting this oncepromising runner back on track, but this seems like an ideal spot. I’m using him, but I actually prefer the other runner out of the Easy Goer. Nothing went right for Breaking the Rules in that race, as he got shuffled out of position early and had to make a wide move into the lane. I’m not convinced that he wants to go that far anyway, so his connections did the right thing by running him shorter last time. However, he again got into trouble, as Jose Ortiz inexplicably steadied him out of position on the backstretch after he had broken sharply. I thought he did well to get back into the race despite having to alter course in the lane. I’ve been impressed with this runner’s tenacity, and I think he has another forward move in him.
RACE 10: BLACKTYPE (#2)
The redrawn version of this Lure looks to be even more competitive than the originally scheduled race. Projected is a new addition, and he has to be considered the horse to beat based on his recent form against tougher company. He’s the class of this field, but Projected was coming into this same race last year off similar efforts, and he disappointed as the 6-5 favorite. I just get the feeling that he doesn’t possess that killer instinct in the lane, and I won’t be surprised if someone beats him in a tight finish. I’m far more skeptical of Zennor, who beat Projected when winning the Lure last year and hasn’t been seen since. Zennor strongly prefers very firm going, and he’s unlikely to get that this time. I’m most interested in Inspector Lynley and Blacktype, and I’ll make the latter my top selection at what should be a more enticing price. Inspector Lynley has yet to win this year, but he’s run very well every time. I thought he was a little unlucky to lose to the vastly improved Made You Look two back, and then he would have won the Wise Dan at Churchill Downs had he found a clear path at the top of the stretch. I’m using him heavily, but I also think Blacktype has a big shot in this race. Blacktype has never been hindered by courses with some give to them, and he possesses tactical speed, which could be a major asset in this race. Some may say that his form has deteriorated as a 7-year-old, and that’s hard to refute. However, he got a needed confidence boost last time, and Christophe Clement appears to have found an ideal spot for this likeable gelding. This is his favorite distance, and he has drawn a much more favorable inside post position this time around.