PICKS

Race 1:   5 - 4 - 7 - 1
Race 2:   9 - 2 - 3 - 4
Race 3:   8 - 4 - 9 - 2
Race 4:   8 - 6 - 3 - 1
Race 5:   8 - 4 - 9 - 12
Race 6:   9 - 8 - 7 - 3
Race 7:   1 - 9 - 2 - 5
Race 8:   1 - 8 - 4 - 5
Race 9:   4 - 9 - 10 - 5
Race 10:   7 - 3 - 5 - 6
Race 11:   8 - 11 - 5 - 2

TOP PLAYS

RACE 3: RAPID RED (#8)
This race is filled with runners stretching out in distance after running well in turf sprints. Generally, I’m against horses making that move and prefer the proven turf routers. Space Mountain is the logical runner with two-turn experience. He’s getting the class relief that he needs, but I’m not thrilled with his races overall, and he will take money with Javier Castellano named to ride. I’m trying to beat him with Rapid Red. He was outrun over a speed-favoring dirt surface in his Spa debut last time, but he should appreciate this switch to turf. He ran very well at Ellis Park two back, finishing behind a pair of runners who would be odds-on to win this race. He’s run some of his fastest speed figures going long, and he can rate off the pace.

RACE 6: HAVE AT IT (#9)
The runner who’s going to take all the money here is Sportswear for Chad Brown. These sons and daughters of Frankel have been all the rage when they make appearances in this country, and this colt is out of a dam who won the Group 1 Epsom Oaks. He has all the tools to win first out, but so do some others in this race. I’m taking a shot against him with Have At It. Christophe Clement has outstanding statistics with 2-year-old first-time starters on turf at Saratoga. Over the past five years, he is 7 for 18 (39 percent, $5.65 ROI). This colt is by turf influence Kitten’s Joy and out of a dam who was a Grade 3 winner on turf.

RACE 7: WYATT’S TOWN (#1)
I respect both of the Chad Brown and Todd Pletcher first-time starters, but they’re numbers in these situations are not quite as strong as you might guess. Pletcher in particular is much more dangerous in shorter races with this two-year-old debut runners. Over the past five years, Pletcher is 4 for 22 ($1.30 ROI) with two-year-olds making their first starts at Saratoga at distances between 6.5 and 7 furlongs. I usually prefer runners with experience in these situations, which is why I’ve gone with Wyatt’s Town. Over the past five years, Steve Asmussen is 9 for 20 (45 percent, $4.28 ROI) with two-year-olds making their second starts in dirt sprints at the Spa. This runner actually ran quite well in his debut despite having to alter course in the stretch, and he should appreciate the added ground.

RACE 8: SHAKE DOWN BABY (#1)
The horse to beat is Off Limits, but she’s going to have to overcome some adversity to win this race. She’s drawn in the far-outside post position, and she’s probably going to have to rally from the back of the pack in a race that is projected to favor horses racing on or near the lead. I’ll certainly use her prominently in my multirace wagers, but I’m taking a small shot against her with Shake Down Baby. It feels like this filly’s last outing at Woodbine may have been a prep for a race at Saratoga since she’s been training here all summer. Her 3-year-old form is actually solid, as she defeated the talented Thundering Sky at Woodbine in September and was hindered by a slow pace in her October finale. She has the tactical speed to take advantage of this ideal rail post position.

RACE 9: SPARTIATIS (#4)
The scratch of Gift Box certainly opens this race up to some other contenders. There is still a decent amount of speed signed on, so I’m hoping that things come apart enough in the late stages for longshot Spartiatis. This horse may be rounding back into form after getting a break earlier this summer. He had no chance in the Vanderbilt last time out but has run well over this course before. If he can get back to his winter form, he’ll be formidable.

RACE 10: WORLD APPROVAL (#7)
This is a deep Fourstardave field, but there’s one horse among this group whom I want to bet. That’s World Approval, who has never gone this one- mile distance but should find it to his liking. He’s always been at his best going slightly shorter and has been absolutely lethal at 1 1/16 miles. There isn’t much early zip in this race, so he can use his tactical speed to get a perfect stalking trip just outside of Sassy Little Lila. I trust him to hold off Time Test, who has shown some hang in his U.S. starts, and Disco Partner, who got the mile last time but may find two turns to be more troublesome.

RACE 11: OFF THE TURF