by David Aragona
Get the wagering strategy for this card in this year’s TimeformUS Saratoga Betting Strategies package, which includes PPs for each day of the meet, exclusive access to the daily Highlight Horse, multi-race ticket constructions, and additional analysis of every stakes race at the meet. More info ›
Race 1: 5 - 1 - 8 - 9
Race 2: 1 - 4 - 3 - 6
Race 3: 6 - 1 - 3 - 7
Race 4: 4 - 3 - 5 - 7
Race 5: 6 - 4 - 2 - 3
Race 6: 8 - 1 - 3 - 11
Race 7: 4 - 9 - 6 - 5
Race 8: 5 - 7 - 1 - 8
Race 9: 4 - 5 - 1 - 6
Race 10: 5 - 1 - 7 - 8
Race 11: 6 - 5 - 2 - 3
RACE 1: LEADING WEST (#5)
With this race coming off the turf, we’re likely to lose a few well-meant firsters who were intended for grass. However, among those with experience, there are a few options that are worth upgrading now that this race has been transferred to the main track. Of the first time starters left in this field, the ones worth considering are the two Main Track Only entrants, Market Impact and Fort McHenry. Of the two, I prefer Market Impact. This colt hasn’t shown a ton of speed in the mornings, but he’s always been staying on well at the end of his drills, hinting at possessing the stamina necessary to handle this 7 furlong distance. That makes sense given his pedigree, since he’s a half-brother to Travers winner West Coast. Fort McHenry is also bred to go longer distances as a Tapit-sired half-brother to California Chrome. He’s also been working along steadily, though he was no match for his highly-touted stablemate Candy Tycoon when the duo drilled in company on Aug. 3. I’m interested in some of those who have run. I had picked Yankee Empire on turf, and while he does have the dirt form to be considered a contender in this field, I really thought he was likely to do better with the surface switch. I did not like the way he finished off his 6-furlong race last time, and I’m skeptical about him having the stamina to go an extra furlong on the main track. I instead prefer horses out of that 4th race on July 27. That was Jim Dandy day and the rail was totally dead that weekend. Few horses who raced down inside for a significant amount of time had anything left at the finish. Therefore, I think it’s worth upgrading the performances of both Leading West and Acre, who were each down inside at different portions of their trips. In my opinion, Leading West ran the better race since he was inside all the way around the turn and was still running on strongly in the lane while just one path off the rail. He also galloped out much better than Acre, giving some hope that added distance won’t be a problem. Leading West doesn’t have much turf pedigree, so staying in this off-the-turf event makes a lot of sense.
RACE 3: GAME BOY BENNY (#6)
This race totally changes with it being transferred to the dirt, though I still like the same horse. The only difference now is that Game Boy Benny is likely to be a much shorter price. This horse had some pedigree to make the surface switch, but he’s obviously fine racing over the dirt. This horse earned some eye-catching triple-digit TimeformUS Speed Figures in his last two starts, primarily due to the fast paces of those races. He seems like a horse that possesses the quickness to win going 5 1/2 furlongs, since she’s displayed an abundance of early speed in his last few starts. Mike Dini has proven that he can win with a price at this meet and I just think this horse makes the most sense with this event moving to dirt. It's a little curious that they've left likely favorite All About It in this dirt race, and I think it's probably a bad sign. This is a horse who once had the talent to win a maiden special weight on turf at this level, so it's concering that they're risking him for a tag while running over a surface that he probably doesn't prefer. Storm Tower has the pedigree to handle the dirt being out of a half-sister to Afleet Alex. Yet he is not exactly the most convincing option going this distance. I also wouldn’t totally discount High Rider, whose lone dirt sprint effort actually puts him in the mix, and he might be the best price of all of these.
RACE 5: NAKAMURA (#6)
Devamani is probably going to be a short price in this race based on his series of superior speed figures. I’ve never been this horse’s greatest fan, though I do acknowledge that his recent form is superior to this group. He faced a tougher field a the N3X allowance level last time and now his connections are getting realistic as they drop him in for a $62,500 tag. That said, I’m not convinced that he’s actually best going this far and he’s never been a horse who has displayed a strong will to win races, especially when they turn into tests of stamina. There are some others to consider at better prices. Cape Angel has steadily been improving again for Joe Sharp and he clearly runs his best races at Saratoga. I thought he got a pretty good trip last time, closing in a race that fell apart, but I think he has a chance to run another good one. Stella d’Oro is an intriguing wild card as he makes his second start in this country. He won on turf going a mile and a half in Ireland, so added distance should be no problem. He didn’t run fast enough to compete against these when he made his stateside debut at Arlington, but that was over synthetic. His connections have shown some confidence by nominating him to the Grade 1 Sword Dancer, so there’s a reasonably expectation that he will improve here. I’m using all of these, but my top pick is Nakamura. This Graham Motion trainee has been facing weaker competition in his two victories thus far in 2019, but he’s won each of those races with much greater ease than the final margins would indicate. Furthermore, those were over shorter distances, and now he’s stretching out to 1 3/8 miles. He showed an affinity for longer distances as a 3-year-old while taking on some tougher competition than he meets here. Motion hasn’t been shipping runners like this to NYRA in recent months unless they’re doing well and he’s also getting a positive rider switch to Jose Ortiz. I expect him to show improvement and outrun his odds.
RACE 7: CANDY TYCOON (#4)
In most situations, a horse like Irish Mias would be the clear favorite to break his maiden off such a strong debut performance. He closed well to be second behind the highly-regarded Another Miracle after a troubled start while earning an impressive 102 TimeformUS Speed Figure. He’s also bred to stretch out in distance, being out of a half-sister to Wood Memorial winner Irish War Cry. I expect him to run well in his second start, but there are some firsters in this field who seem like they’re ready to put forth efforts that could make things difficult for Irish Mias. The most notable of those is Todd Pletcher’s firster Candy Tycoon. This horse looked like a real athlete working a quarter in 21 1/5 seconds at the OBS April sale and he’s bred to have ability, being by a good debut sire from a classy female family. Since he’s come into Pletcher’s barn, he’s done some nice things in the mornings, especially during the past few weeks. He easily outworked the well-regarded Fort McHenry in a gate drill on Aug. 3 and then he embarrassed a workmate last week while getting 5 furlongs in a very impressive 59 2/5 seconds. That last workout was arguably the most impressive gate drill we’ve seen from a 2-year-old at this meet. The Todd Pletcher barn had struggled with its juveniles for a couple of seasons, but it seems like things might be starting to turn around after a few 2-year-old wins in recent weeks. I expect this horse to be very difficult to beat. The other firster that I want to use is Feisty Bird. This colt has a stellar pedigree, being by Curlin out of a half-sister to Birdstone and Bird Town. He seems like one that may need a race, as many Ian Wilkes firsters do, but he’s shown some talent in the morning. He figures to be slowly away from the gate based on his July 27 gate drill, but look for him to come running late.
RACE 8: MORTICIA (#5)
Morticia was terribly unlucky to lose the Caress as the even-money favorite, and I’m not really trying to beat her in this Smart N Fancy. Previous rider Gaffalione didn’t make use of her early speed last time and found himself bottled up behind a wall of horses coming to the top of the stretch. He then couldn’t find a clear path until the final sixteenth when it was too late. I would expect her to be more forwardly placed this time given the rider switch and lack of early speed in this field. She looked as good as ever in that allowance win at Churchill two back and I wouldn’t be surprised at all if she bounced back with a dominant win here. She’s hard to get past, but there are a few potential backups to consider. Oleksandra only got up to win by a neck in her two victories at Belmont, but she was far superior to her competition on each occasion. She overcame a ridiculously slow pace when soaring from last to first in the final furlong of that May 24 win, running a final quarter in a spectacular 21.41 seconds. She then beat males in that June score, again overcoming an unfavorable race shape to get up. Notably, Joel Rosario was aboard for those two efforts and he seems like a perfect fit for a mare who can be a little difficult to ride. She didn’t put forth her best effort at Woodbine last time, but getting back to New York with Rosario may make a big difference. She’s the main threat. Fire Key and Broadway Run are also not impossible, but it seems unlikely that they’ll beat Morticia if all get fair trips this time.
RACE 9: BLOWOUT (#4)
Chad Brown has the two likely favorites in this Lake Placid, both of whom are exiting the 3-horse Lake George, in which Brown trained the entire field. Regal Glory got the better of stablemate Blowout that day, but I think the trips may have had something to do with the result. The race actually set up very well for Regal Glory, who rated off an honest pace and got to make the last move in the stretch. That’s her preferred running style and she got to use it despite the race drawing such a small field. That was not the case for Blowout, who was forced to employ front-running tactics. She’s really more of a stalking, grinder type, lacking a great turn of foot, so Regal Glory’s blitz to the lead at the head of the stretch may have caught her off guard. Blowout fought on gamely to the wire, as she always does, but Regal Glory’s momentum carried her to victory. This time, Blowout should find herself stalking a couple of fillies to her ins ide, as both Amandrea and Vow to Recover possess decent tactical speed. I believe this daughter of Dansili is a little better with a target. She certainly tries hard to win when she’s still in contention in deep stretch, as she showed two back in that gritty Wild Applause victory. If she runs back to that kind of effort in this spot, I believe she’ll be tough to beat. The other runner to consider is Varenka, who is coming off an allowance score over the well-regarded Catch a Bid. She’s competitive with these based on her best effort, but she’s more dependent on pace than Regal Glory and Blowout.
RACE 10: STREET BAND (#5)
Dunbar Road and Point of Honor are going to attract the bulk of support in this Alabama, and I would readily concede that the y are the two most likely winners. Dunbar Road was visually impressive when taking down the Mother Goose over 5 overmatched rivals. She didn’t run a fast speed figure, but that was primarily due to the unusually slow pace of the race. Point of Honor gave heavy favorite Guarana a scare in the CCA Oaks last, cutting the margin to 1 length at the wire. Both of these fillies appear to be improving with experience and I don’t think either one is going to have a serious issue handling the stretch -out to 1 1/4 miles. However, there’s a narrative developing that this is merely a match-race between these two fillies, and I don’t think that’s exactly true. This is a competitive affair in which the two favorites do not possess a significant speed figure edge on their nearest rivals. If these fillies are in the range of 2- 1 or less on the tote board, I think that represents bad value. There are other fillies in this field who have run speed figures that put them squarely in the mix. Those include Lady Apple and Ulule, both of whom exit the Iowa Oaks. However, I have my doubts about each of them improving going this distance. My top pick is Street Band. This filly had started to show signs of turning a corner prior to the Kentucky Oaks in that dominant Fair Grounds Oaks score. The form of that race was quite strong, as runner-up Liora returned to finish second in the Kentucky Oaks, albeit with a good trip. Street Band was not so lucky on the first Friday in May as she was rank and steadied multiple times during the first 3 furlongs while traveling wide every step of the way. She bounced back nicely in the Indiana Oaks last time, winning with great ease while earning a 112 TimeformUS Speed Figure. That number puts her on par with the two favorites and she’s likely to be a much bigger price. Furthermore, her tactical speed should ensure that she works out a favorable trip in a race that doesn’t feature a ton of pace.