by David Aragona
Now Available: TimeformUS Saratoga PPs and Betting Strategies
Gain access to TimeformUS PPs for all 40 days of the Saratoga meet, plus betting strategies – recommended wagers for each of David Aragona's daily Top Plays, fully constructed multi-race tickets including daily Pick-4s and Pick-5s, and additional strategic information around playing every card. You will also receive exclusive access to David's Highlight Horses, as well as opinions on all stakes races. Learn more ›
Race 1: 8 - 12 - 13 - 10
Race 2: 13 - 4 - 12 - 11
Race 3: 6 - 4 - 7 - 5
Race 4: 7 - 2 - 8 - 6
Race 5: 7 - 5 - 4 - 3
Race 6: 5 - 10 - 8 - 2
Race 7: 10 - 13 - 8 - 3
Race 8: 4 - 2 - 6 - 1
Race 9: 4 - 3 - 2 - 8
Race 10: 6 - 16 - 13 - 10
RACE 3: DADDY D T (#6)
This is a very tricky race featuring horses coming together from a variety of races and class levels. The two who figure to attract the most support are coming out of the same $40,000 claimer on July 21. Forge finished second and was claimed out of that spot by Mike Maker, who does not have the strongest numbers off the claim with dirt horses. I thought that Forge had every chance to win last time, as he was able to stalk the slow pace from close range outside. He got there in the lane and just couldn’t quite seal the deal. Now he has to stretch out to seven furlongs, which would appear to suit his rival J S Bach better. The latter runner got a weird trip last time, as he was up close early, dropped back, and came again outside. I believe he’s the horse to beat today as he goes out for top trainer Jason Servis. I’m using him, but there are others to consider at better prices. The one I prefer is Daddy D T, who gets some needed class relief after facing tougher in his last two starts. It took a few races for Charlton Baker to get this horse back on track after claiming him at Aqueduct, but he has been in excellent form in recent months. He ran well to win at this level in May and then put forth a solid effort against much tougher company in June. I know his last race looks like a step in the wrong direction, but he lost all chance when he broke poorly, putting him at the back of a compact field behind a slow pace. This time, he’s drawn well outside, and he should be forwardly placed in a situation where the Pace Projector is favoring runners on or near the lead.
RACE 5: GYPSY JANIE (#7)
Even though the Pace Projector is not predicting a fast pace, there does appear to be a fair amount of early speed in this race. Shanghai Glory, Richie’slilwildcat, and Tee Up have all done their best work on the front end, so they figure to hook up in the early going. A few fillies exit the July 21 race won by Tee Up, but I think this is a tougher spot than that one, so I am looking to new faces. Richie’slilwildcat may be the speed of the speed as she ships in from Arlington for the dangerous Larry Rivelli barn. I have some overall concerns about her stamina, but she’s one that must be used. Shape Shifter has faced slightly tougher company in her recent starts and has earned competitive speed figures out of town. However, Michael Pino doesn’t have strong numbers on this circuit. I’m using both of these fillies, but the horse that I think is best suited today’s situation is Gyspy Janie. She’s a filly that prefers to rally from off the pace and she’s going to get the pace that she requires in this spot. Furthermore, there is plenty of rain in the forecast ahead of Saturady’s card, and she appears to really move up over a wet track. While her prior connections did a good job with her, this is nevertheless a very positive claim. Owner Jimmy Riccio and trainer Jeremiah Englehart have had plenty of success with their recent claims and if they can improve this filly at all, I think she’ll beat this bunch.
RACE 8: SIGNIFICANT FORM (#4)
The Lake Placid features the return of last year’s top juvenile turf filly, Rushing Fall. She’s only lost once in five career starts, as she got run down last time out in the Edgewood. While she arguably ran one of her best races in defeat, that race came more than three months ago, and you have to be a little concerned about the time off. This layoff was not planned, as she was originally being considered for Royal Ascot, then the Belmont Oaks, and finally, she missed the Lake George with a fever. She’s been training steadily for this return, but it’s the toughest field she’s met yet in 2018, and I think this is the time to take a shot against her. A few horses exit the Belmont Oaks, which featured a number of fillies who didn’t really want to go 10 furlongs. The pace of that race was actually pretty fast for the distance (indicated by red color-coded pace figures in TimeformUS PPs), and Significant Form was the only filly involved early who was around at the finish. In fact, the two others with whom she was contesting that pace – La Signare and Toinette – were the final two to cross the finish line. Significant Form battled on gamely to the wire that day, and she will appreciate the slight cutback to nine furlongs. There isn’t much pace in this race, so she should get first run on likely leader Go Noni Go, and I believe that will make her tough to beat. Thewayiam did well to be second in the Belmont Oaks, but she also got a fantastic trip, sneaking up the rail when Significant Form vacated that position. She always tries hard, but may find one or two to be too tough for her once again. Daddy Is a Legend scares me more, as she always hinted at having potential but rarely worked out the right trip. She finally put it all together last time and is a threat if she can work out a similar trip and build on that effort.
RACE 9: SHE’S A JULIE (#4)
Stamina is the primary question for all of the fillies contesting the Grade 1 Alabama. None of them have gone this far before and few figure to be at their best going this demanding classic distance. Midnight Bisou will be the favorite off her runner-up effort in the Coaching Club American Oaks behind division leader Monomoy Girl. While she earned a top speed figure and got the two-turn trip, I still thought her overall performance was somewhat dull, as she didn’t show the same kick that she had displayed in her prior two starts. She’s raced much closer to the pace in her two starts for Steve Asmussen, so I wonder if they will revert to the closing tactics that worked for her earlier in the year. The Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, so such a strategy could pay off. My bigger concern with Midnight Bisou is that she just may not want to go this far. The same can be said of Talk Veuve to Me. She stretched out successfully in the Acorn, but that came around one turn. She passed the two-turn test in the Indiana Oaks last time against an inferior field, but she certainly looked good doing it. The talent is certainly there, but it will be interesting to see if Julien Leparoux can ration out her ample speed going this distance. The talent is certainly there, but it will be interesting to see if Leparoux can ration out her ample speed going this distance. I’m taking a shot with She’s a Julie. Her Iowa Oaks win was similar to Talk Veuve to Me’s last performance, as they both ran fast races in winning by large margins against inferior fields. The difference is that She’s a Julie is going to be a better price, and I have more confidence that she can handle the distance. It took a while for her to get back into form when she came back off the layoff last winter at Fair Grounds, but she has really come to hand in the last few months. I loved the way she finished off that Iowa Oaks, as she appeared to get stronger the farther they went. Steve Asmussen has an excellent record in this situation, as he is 10 for 26 (38 percent, $2.91 ROI) over the past five years with 3-year-old fillies coming off wins in dirt graded stakes. There’s plenty of stamina on the bottom side of her pedigree, as her dam is by excellent sire Dubai Millennium and is a half-sister to the dam of Bodemeister.