by David Aragona
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Race 1: 1/1A - 8 - 6 - 5
Race 2: 4 - 6 - 1 - 7
Race 3: 8 - 2 - 9 - 6
Race 4: 5 - 11 - 8 - 9
Race 5: 1 - 3 - 4 - 6
Race 6: 2 - 7 - 5 - 4
Race 7: 1 - 6 - 4 - 8
Race 8: 7 - 3 - 4 - 9
Race 9: 5 - 4 - 1 - 6
Race 10: 9 - 7 - 8 - 6
Race 11: 9 - 6 - 1 - 3
Race 12: 2 - 13 - 9 - 11
Race 13: 5 - 3 - 2 - 10
RACE 3: MADAME ORBE (#8)
This is a fascinating maiden affair, in which you can make a case for any number of contenders. A horse like First Wave is probably going to attract plenty of support, and I’m a bit skeptical of her translating her turf sprint form to this two-turn route. While she’s bred to handle the distance, she appears to be a quick, compact type of runner who may be better suited to shorter distances. Among the short prices, Charreada is a more reliable option. It appears that there is some pace in this race, so she should get an honest setup ahead of her. This daughter of Kitten’s Joy can be a little one-paced at times, but she seemed to wake up with the addition of blinkers last time and Joel Rosario rides her well. I’m using her prominently, but my top pick is Madame Orbe. This filly figures to be a big price after failing to make much of an impact in her first two starts. However, I think she’s one who still has plenty of room for further development. She was very green in her debut, as she goofed around while loafing along at the back of the pack. She was actually doing a bit of running in the late but was never going to seriously threaten the leaders. They stretched her out to 10 furlongs last time, and I’m just not sure she actually wants to go that far. She was more aggressively ridden in the early stages, and then lost momentum when she took a hard bump approaching the eighth pole. This time, Luis Saez should be able to take back and make one run. If this race comes apart a bit at the end, she figures to be charging. With the presence of two Chad Brown trainees, neither of which I’m particularly enthusiastic about, Madame Orbe figures to get lost in the wagering.
RACE 4: OFF THE RECORD (#5)
It will be interesting to see if Performer runs here or in the Better Talk Now on turf on Sunday. This seems like the far more logical spot, since he’s already proven that he’s a proficient dirt sprinter. This colt obviously possesses a ton of talent. He has a regal pedigree, and he’s worked in company with Travers contender Code of Honor for this race. The slight stretch-out to 6 1/2 furlongs is a good progression for him. However, he will have to improve slightly to beat this field, and you may have to accept a pretty short price on him. I definitely respect this horse, but others figure to offer better value. I’m not a fan of Payne, who was very disappointing as the favorite last time out. There’s no doubt that he ran well when he was second behind Rowayton two back, but this horse has needed time between starts in the past and it’s fair to wonder if he just hasn’t gone on with further training. You also have to include T Loves a Fight, who has been a revelation for his new connections after looking like his career might be finished over the winter. He lost the John Morrissey by less than 2 lengths to some very talented New York-breds and must be respected off that effort. I’m using all of these in some capacity, but my top pick is the second time starter Off the Record. Like Performer, this horse is going to have to improve off his maiden victory in order to beat this field, but I think that’s likely. Jose Ortiz rode this horse like he was giving him an education in his debut, deliberately reining him in take some dirt while sitting behind the leaders. He then asked him to come through a narrow opening in upper stretch, and the horse responded well. He must prove it on a fast track here, but Rodolphe Brisset’s statistics in this situation suggest that these horses routinely improve. Since he started training, he is a remarkable 8 for 12 (67%, $6.98 ROI) with last-out maiden winners on the dirt.
RACE 5: PROMISES FULFILLED (#1)
Can Mitole rebound off his troubled loss in the Vanderbilt? His seven-race winning streak was snapped by circumstances, as he was forced to race down on a deal rail after breaking from the inside post position. He may have never beaten Imperial Hint anyway, given how well that horse ran to break the track record. However, Mitole was certainly cost a chance to be second and make it close. This time the scenario is completely different. He’s drawn outside of his main pace rival and he can work out a perfect stalking trip. He once appeared to be a 6-furlong specialist, but he’s since proven that seven-eighths is no problem for him. I think he’s the horse to beat, but I doubt you’re going to get much value given how well-publicized that Jim Dandy Day track bias was. I also am not convinced that the gap in ability between him and Promises Fulfilled is as wide as the results of the Churchill Downs Stakes and Met Mile would have you believe. Promises Fulfilled did not have ideal trips in either of those races. He had to duel for the lead in his first start back from Dubai at Churchill and then he was wide while rated off the pace in the Met. I think we saw the real Promises Fulfilled last time out in the Nerud. While he did control the pace through slow fractions, he nevertheless earned an impressive 124 TimeformUS Speed Figure in victory. He’s trained well out of that race, and I actually like this rail draw for him. It’s going to force Luis Saez to use him aggressive in the early going, just as he did in his two stellar Saratoga performances last year. If these two hook up early, I think Mitole’s going to have a real battle on his hands. Promises Fulfilled figures to offer better value, so he’s my pick. I’d also use Firenze Fire defensively, but I’m just not sure that he’s quite as good as the top two contenders. I’d also throw in Killybegs Captain underneath, since he’s been badly compromised by circumstances in his last two starts.
RACE 6: COME DANCING (#2)
I’m a big fan of Come Dancing, and continue to hold out hope that she can turn into the top filly or mare sprinter in the country. However, her form has been totally exposed ever since that jaw-dropping victory in the Distaff Handicap, in which she earned a 132 TimeformUS Speed Figure. She ran well to win the Ruffian two back and then she was just a little overhyped heading in the Ogden Phipps, getting bet down to 4-5 odds over Midnight Bisou. While she didn’t run particularly well that day, especially considering she was on the gold rail, that distance may be a bit far for her. I like the cutback to 7 furlongs, the distance at which she earned that massive figure earlier in the year. However, it is slightly worrisome that the Pace Projector is predicting that she’s only fourth fastest in the early going, especially since she’s been known to break slowly on occasion. That combination of factors makes her slightly less appealing at what figures to be a very short price. On the other hand, she’s reportedly been working in a fashion that suggests she’s in career form right now, and she’s never been the type that necessarily needs a clear lead. I have some reservations, but she’s my top pick. Her main rival appears to be Separationofpowers, but I think she might be slightly overrated. She rode that gold rail that was present on Belmont Stakes week when coasting to victory in the Bed O Roses. She had never run quite that fast before and she also may have benefited from a favorable pace scenario. She’s in for a very different trip this time with Mia Mischief and Minit to Stardom in the lineup. If I’m going to take a horse out of the Bed O Roses, I would strongly prefer Dawn the Destroyer. I know that she doesn’t seem nearly fast enough to win a race at this level off her recent efforts, but she’s had excuses. She was badly hindered by slow paces in the Distaff and Vagrancy, and then last time she was extremely wide over that rail-biased course. She appears to be working with better energy off the layoff and she’s supposed to get a more honest setup this time. I’ll use her prominently underneath.
RACE 7: SHANCELOT (#1)
Shancelot’s 131 TimeformUS Speed Figure in the Amsterdam stands out as a beacon of light across a landscape of less-than-inspiring 3-year-old sprint performances. It was far and away the best effort of his career, but that was hardly some aberration – this horse has been exceptional from the start. If he delivers as expected on Saturday, we could be calling him the best sprinter in the country – and some already are. It should be fascinating to compare his 7-furlong time to the Forego run two races earlier. All of that assumes a victory is a foregone conclusion, but it’s pretty hard to build a case against this horse. Some may be concerned about the rail draw, but Shancelot has been a rocketship from the stalls in his prior starts. His only potential pace rival is Call Paul, but he doesn’t seem quick enough to seriously threaten this horse. I’m not trying to beat him, but I will use a few others underneath. Mind Control has a right to rebound after getting steadied in the stretch of the Woody Stephens. The Concern at Laurel last time was a total disaster as Trevor McCarthy repeatedly guided him into traffic. He’s getting John Velazquez back aboard here and he would be a top candidate to fill out the exacta if he gets back to his Bay Shore effort. I also want to use Borracho, who got in a perfect prep and might be the best of the closers. Rowayton is also mildly interesting, but I’m concerned that those recent route efforts may have dulled some of his speed.
RACE 8: SCOTTISH JIG (#7)
I don’t really have anything against the morning line favorite Secret Message. She was pretty unlucky in the Diana last time, as Trevor McCarthy rode her right into the backs of some tiring runners at the top of the stretch. She arguably could have hit the board that day with a clear run, though she was never in danger of beating the top two. She’s just come back in the best form of her career as a 4-year-old for Graham Motion, and she figures to be tough if she shows up with another good effort. Chad Brown has entered a trio of runners. Mascha figures to attract the most support following her visually impressive stateside debut in July. While she unleashed a dazzling turn of foot to win that race, it’s unclear if she was beating rivals of much quality. There’s upside with her, but she’s going to have to run a lot better to beat this field. Significant Form is probably worth another chance as she gets back out to a more appropriate distance. She wanted no part of a true turf sprint last time, but her prior effort in the Intercontinental suggests that she still has some good efforts left in her. I’m using all of these, but my top pick is Scottish Jig. I think this filly’s connections may have misjudged her a bit during her first few months in this country. She won going 10 furlongs in England, but she did so over good-to-firm ground while making late burst to the lead. She had also been quite effective going as short as a mile, so it’s a little odd that she’s been campaigned over here as if she’s a marathon runner. They started off in a 10-furlong race, which she won impressively, but then she wanted no part of a testing 1 1/2 miles last time. This turnback to 1 1/16 miles may seem pretty drastic, but I think it’s what she needs. After all, she’s by Speightstown and is a full-sister to the top miler Seek Again, who previously held the track record for one-mile at Saratoga. I also wouldn’t be surprised to see new jockey Joel Rosario ride her a bit differently. She’s not a need-the-lead type, so I wouldn’t mind it if she’s sitting just off the pace. There’s more quality to this filly than is apparent from a quick glance at her form.
RACE 9: WOW CAT (#5)
Many will regard this Personal Ensign as a two-horse race between Midnight Bisou and Elate, and perhaps I’m overcomplicating things by suggesting otherwise. I won’t extoll the virtues of these two awesome racehorses, since their merits are readily apparent. Midnight Bisou has been rock solid so far during her undefeated season, and Elate’s recent efforts suggest that she’s finally gotten back to her best form. There has been much discussion about the distance of this race, and how it will favor Elate. I think that’s true to an extent. Midnight Bisou is probably best between a mile and 1 1/16 miles, but she can obviously get this 9-furlong trip under the right circumstances. Elate’s true calling is 10 furlongs, so I don’t think it’s exactly true that she has a huge advantage over her rival going this distance. Rather, they’re each meeting halfway. If each one puts forth a top effort, they’ll finish first and second. But I wouldn’t totally dismiss some of their main competitors. The two horses exiting the Shuvee are interesting. That race did not earn a particularly fast speed figure, but that was primarily due to the slow pace of the race. Golden Award was dominant in victory, but she benefited from the moderate tempo, and her task was made much easier when She’s a Julie threw in the towel early. The horse that was compromised by the flow of that race was Wow Cat. Not only was she behind the slow pace, but she made a move approaching the quarter pole into the fastest part of the race. She flattened out a bit at the end, but she certainly had a right to do so off the long layoff. She’s now logged a steady series of drills, most of them in company with the freaky 3-year-old filly Guarana, and I think she should be ready to take a step forward. This is clearly her best distance, and she might still be slightly underrated in relation to the others in this field. She was arguably best in last fall’s Breeders’ Cup Distaff, and she still hasn’t gotten the respect that she deserves for that stellar effort. She improved with racing last year, and I think the same could be true this time around.
RACE 10: SADLER’S JOY (#9)
It’s no surprised that Chad Brown holds a strong hand in this Sword Dancer. He sends out the morning line favorite Annals of Time, who is supposed to get a little bit of help from his stablemate Proven Reserves. That runner is in the race to ensure an honest early pace, and he should get some company up front with horses like Tiz Morning, Channel Cat, and Channel Maker all possessing some positional speed. I don’t think there’s any denying that Annals of Time is one of the most talented horses in this field when’s right. The major question for him is the distance, since he’s never raced beyond 1 3/16 miles. His pedigree indicates that he map handle it, since his sire Temple City can get marathon runners. There is stamina in his female family, but there isn’t concrete evidence that he’s going to be at his best going this distance. That said, if he’s ridden properly, he can use that effective late kick to overcome any stamina deficiencies. I think he’s a horse you have to use, but I wouldn’t want to make him my top pick at a very short price. Four horses exit the Bowling Green, and it was a tale of many different trips. Channel Cat obviously benefited from the moderate pace in a race that was dominated by horses near the lead. He’s in great form right now, but I’ll be surprised if he repeats the feat given a more honest pace. Ya Primo had little excuse after racing close to the pace and saving ground much of the way. He can improve in his second start off the layoff, but I wasn’t blown away by his U.S. debut. The horse that I want out of the Bowling Green is my old friend Sadler’s Joy. He was actually ready to run a big race off the layoff, but he was buried inside for his entire trip and encountered traffic trouble at a critical juncture in the stretch. While it’s clear that Javier Castellano has chosen to ride Annals of Time, I actually don’t mind that he’s getting off this horse. Castellano is a great rider but some horses and riders just don’t lick, and he routinely had trouble putting this horse in the right spot or timing his move correctly. Jose Lezcano rides the turf very well and he should be an ample replacement. Sadler’s Joy is best going this 1 1/2 miles distance and he should be ready to move forward in his second start off the layoff. The rabbit won’t just help Annals of Time, since he, too, would benefit from a fast pace.
The 150th running of the Runhappy Travers is as wide open as any in recent memory. Given the absence of all three winners of the Triple Crown races, this 3-year-old class is in search of a leader for the second half of the season. Maximum Security remains a formidable presence following his Haskell victory, but any number of horses in this Travers lineup could leap past him with a decisive triumph on Saturday.
Morning-line favorite Tacitus (#6) is a horse who has sparked much debate. His supporters will tell you that he’s clearly superior to this group and just requires a clean trip to fulfill his ample potential. I will not dispute that he was compromised by trips in both the Belmont Stakes and Jim Dandy. Track biases played a major role on each of those race days, and Tacitus was a victim. The rail was a significant advantage all week leading into the Belmont Stakes, yet Tacitus was forced to race wide every step of the way en route to his runner-up finish. Then on Jim Dandy Day, not only was Tacitus guided down towards a dead rail for much of his trip, he also completely blew the start, stumbling badly out of the gate. There’s little doubt that he would have won under different circumstances, but the excuses are starting to pile up. Bill Mott is adding blinkers in an attempt to avoid any potential lack of focus on the part of the horse, but Tacitus still needs to work out the right trip in a crowded 12-horse field. His 123 TimeformUS Speed Figure in the Jim Dandy is among the highest in the field, so if he is able to avoid trouble, he may be poised to ascend to a level that the rest of these have yet to attain. Yet that’s still conjecture at this point, and I’m reluctant to take too positive a view of a favorite in a race as competitive as this one.
The likely second choice is Code of Honor (#2), who finished just ahead of Tacitus in the Kentucky Derby. I was impressed by his recent victory in the Dwyer, but I get the sense that races around that distance – one mile – are ideal for him. I’m leaning in another direction.
Owendale (#1) should not be dismissed at a mid-level price. He burst onto the scene with a surprising victory in the Lexington this spring, and he’s maintained that high level of performance ever since. There was nothing wrong with his late-running third-place effort in the Preakness, and he did exactly what was asked of him last time in the Ohio Derby. While he won that race by only a half-length over an inferior rival, he had to wait for room around the far turn while stymied in behind tiring rivals. Once he found a seam, he burst through impressively, earning a TimeformUS Speed Figure of 122, which puts him squarely in the mix.
The one problem with the aforementioned runners is that they share a common running style: all prefer to settle in the second half of the pack and launch a late rally. The TimeformUS Pace Projector is not characterizing this Travers as a race that will feature a fast pace, as is often the case when dealing with fields of this size, so these closers may not get much help up front.
The Pace Projector depicts Looking at Bikinis as the clear leader. While any number of the stalkers in this field could apply some token pressure, Looking at Bikinis’ speed should still make him very dangerous. Even if a horse like Tax is sent to the front, Looking at Bikinis would be perfectly content to stalk the pace. The main question for this lightly raced son of Lookin at Lucky is one of talent. He’s never earned a speed figure that suggests he can take down the major players and he was beaten by two of today’s rivals in the Curlin, including his stablemate Highest Honors (#3), an intriguing contender in his own right.
Yet, I still think there are some reasons to be optimistic about Looking at Bikini’s chances. The 115 TimeformUS Speed Figure that he earned in that allowance score was excellent for his first start in over nine months, especially given the fact that he worked out an uncomfortable trip that day. Adopting a negative view of his Curlin effort would be a serious mistake. The rail on July 26 – one day prior to the Jim Dandy – was as dead as I’ve ever seen it at Saratoga. Rain had fallen before they had a chance to seal the track, creating a situation where the rail was essentially quicksand. For whatever reason, Looking at Bikinis was steered down to the inside path soon after the start of the Curlin while all of his main rivals remained well off the rail. The colt actually ran a fantastic race to hang on for third, showing some real stamina to not give up in the lane on a day where many horses who rode the rail were eased across the wire. LOOKING AT BIKINIS (#9) has continued to train well out of that race, and I believe he possesses the stamina to get this distance, especially if the pace is moderate. He’s my Travers pick.