by David Aragona
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Race 1: 2 - 1 - 5 - 6
Race 2: 4 - 1 - 2 - 5
Race 3: 8 - 1 - 6 - 4
Race 4: 8 - 3 - 9 - 4
Race 5: 1 - 5 - 4 - 2
Race 6: 1 - 8 - 3 - 2
Race 7: 6 - 1 - 4 - 5
Race 8: 7 - 9 - 5 - 6
Race 9: 8 - 3 - 1 - 5
Race 10: 10 - 2 - 4 - 9
Race 11: 3 - 9 - 11 - 4
Race 12: 5 - 1 - 4 - 6
Race 13: 10 - 4 - 5 - 9
RACE 3: SILVER DUST (#8)
A few of the runners in this race return from the July 29 allowance race won by longshot Uno Mas Modelo. Tommy T finished a good second that day in his first start since January, as he gamely chased the winner home after briefly striking the front in the stretch. This 4-year-old gelding had himself fit for that race off a strong morning worktab. He just always seems to show up with a solid effort, but I’m not sure we can expect any massive improvement out of him second off the layoff. I also thought that Tommy T had the slightly easier trip than today’s rival Silver Dust in that race. Silver Dust had to break from the rail last time in a race with a murky pace scenario. I don’t blame Ricardo Santana, Jr. for sending him so aggressively, as it seemed like the right thing to do. However, he was a bit quicker than anticipated in his first start with blinkers added and he ended up getting tired late. This time, the positions are reversed, as Tommy T has the rail and Silver Dust is drawn in the outside slot. I think Luis Saez should be able to work out a more comfortable stalking trip, and that may be all this horse needs to come out on top today. At a bigger price, I would also want to throw in Hollywood Star underneath. This 3-year-old has yet to run a particularly fast speed figure, but the pace held together in his last race and he’s worked well since then.
RACE 4: AMERICANO (#8)
Digital Footprint is obviously the horse to beat off his encouraging debut. Some may view it as a disappointment that he lost as the 6-5 favorite, but I thought this horse made a favorable impression for a first time starter. He didn’t have the most comfortable trip as he was wide for much of his trip. Things got a little tight in the stretch, but he gamely rallied to daylight and was finishing up best of all. If he steps forward off that effort, he is a likely winner. However, you are not going to get much of a price once again. There are some intriguing first time turfers to consider. The one that figures to attract the most attention is Moon Colony, who is a son of good turf influence Uncle Mo. He was a closing fourth behind the stakes-bound Mucho last time and he is one that figures to improve with added ground. I’m definitely using him, but I’m most interested in Americano at a better price. This colt had worked decently into his debut and disappointed, as he showed little despite going off at 8-1 in a loaded race. That said, it appeared that his connections may have just been giving him a race, as Julien Leparoux showed no urgency to get early position and allowed this horse to race extremely wide into the turn. Ultimately, I don’t care that much about his performance, because he’s bred to be better on the turf. Tiznow is a decent turf influence, and the female side of his pedigree is all grass. His dam, Moment of Majesty was an accomplished stakes horse, earning over $600,000 racing exclusively on turf and synthetic surfaces. There are also plenty of other grass influences coursing through these bloodlines, tracing to this colt’s third dam, Fiji, who was the 1998 Champion U.S. Turf Female. I love this rider switch to Jose Ortiz and I would expect this one to show much more early speed this time.
RACE 5: TATHQEEF (#1)
This is one of many wide-open races during the pre-stakes portion of this card. Bill Mott holds a strong hand in this race, as he sends out the two shortest prices on the morning line. Red Knight is a likeable sort, as he is just two noses shy of going undefeated though 6 career starts. He successfully handled the transition out of New York-bred company this year, and he’s proven that this distance is ideal for him. I really have no knocks against the races he’s run, but I do think this is a much tougher spot. Classic Covey has been somewhat of a disappointment after hinting that he might be capable of better things in his Pan American performance. He hasn’t run to that level in either start since returning to New York, but I wonder if distance may have something to do with that. He handled that initial attempt at 1 1/2 miles, but his two recent performances suggest that this turnback to a two-turn race may be appropriate. I’m using both of these horses, but the one that I want to bet is returnee Tathqeef. This horse ran a few races last year that would make him competitive with this group. He did well to beat Gaugin and Rocketry going a comparable distance to today when he made his return to turf in July 2017. After that, he struggled with consistency, but he also got some poor trips, as was certainly the case when he was unlucky to lose on Travers day last year. Now he comes back off a lengthy break, but Kiaran McLaughlin actually has fanastic numbers in this situation. Over the past five years, he is 10 for 35 (29 percent, $3.36 ROI) with horses coming off layoffs of 180 days or more in turf routes. I love the rail draw for this horse and he figures to be a square price.
RACE 6: PROMISES FULFILLED (#1)
I think the TimeformUS Pace Projector tells the story in this race, as Promises Fulfilled is predicted to clearly in front in a situation favoring the early leader. It’s highly unlikely that he will have to run nearly as fast as he did in either the Woody Stephens or the Amsterdam, since there just aren’t any other true speed horses to go with him. Horses like Telekinesis and Gidu may try to chase him, but I don’t think that either one possesses the gas to stay within range of Promises Fulfilled early. This horse has earned TimeformUS Speed Figures of 128 and 132 in his last two starts, numbers that suggest he’ll be one of the top contenders for the Breeders’ Cup Sprint. If he shows up, I don’t see how anyone in this field can beat him. The main threat is Firenze Fire, but I don’t know what to expect from this horse. His Dwyer win was arguably more impressive than either of Promises Fulfilled’s last two starts, but can he repeat it? That race was run at a time when Jason Servis’s horses were unstoppable, as they were routinely improving by leaps and bounds throughout the Belmont meet. He’s continued to have some success at Saratoga, but we haven’t seen him necessarily improving horses to the same degree. I do think this is the right spot for this horse, going 7 furlongs around one turn, but I have trouble envisioning him overcoming what is likely to be an unfavorable pace scenario.
RACE 10: SADLER’S JOY (#10)
This older turf male division has produced some truly exciting races so far this year, as both the Manhattan and Bowling Green ended in blanket finishes. There are many horses that can win this race, and I think you really need to spread here if you’re playing multi-race sequences that go through this race. I landed on the runners that did well in the Manhattan. I think Sadler’s Joy ran the best race that day and he is the horse to beat here. He clearly didn’t love the turf conditions in the Bowling Green last time but he nevertheless ran an admirable race to nearly get up. It’s difficult to time his move correctly, and Javier Castellano has had a tendency to hit the front too soon in the races that he’s ridden him. That’s what happened in the Manhattan when he made a far turn blitz to the lead. This time, he really needs to wait and just trust that Sadler’s Joy will get him there late over a course and distance that he loves. I think Spring Quality is also dangerous. He doesn’t have to come from nearly as far back as he did in the Manhattan, as he’s drawn a much more favorable inside post position this time. This race wasn’t originally in the cards, but it’s a good sign that he’s running here after getting sick. Hi Happy will appreciate getting back on firmer turf, but I feel that others may be more talented. At a big price, I also want to use Revved Up in some capacity. This horse has run his best races at marathon distances, but he’s rarely been given the chance to go this far. He could make some noise in exotics.
RACE 11: GRONKOWSKI (#3)
Good Magic enters this Travers off the heels of a convincing win in the Grade 1 Haskell at Monmouth four weeks ago. In what was his first start since a grueling spring campaign, he did exactly what was expected of him. Good Magic stalked an honest pace and opened up with authority on Bravazo at the top of the stretch before cruising to the line. The major concern for this favorite is the added furlong of the Travers. While Good Magic can handle 1 1/4 miles, as he demonstrated in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes, he appears to stall somewhat in the last furlong of his races at nine furlongs and beyond. In fairness, some of that has been a product of race dynamics. After all, he was the only one to really test Justify in the first two legs of the Triple Crown, and he never threw in the towel despite getting turned away. On the other hand, he showed the same tendency in the Blue Grass, and he even seemed to be flattening out late in the Haskell. Furthermore, the TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting that he will be chasing a fast pace, which could make him all the more vulnerable in the late stages.
Fortunately for Chad Brown, he also sends out the second choice on the morning line, Gronkowski. I had been among this colt’s many doubters heading into the Belmont Stakes. Yet, with a single performance he proved to me that he’s among the most talented 3-year-old dirt horses in training. After plummeting to the back of the pack in the early going of the Belmont, Gronkowski slowly worked his way into contention heading down the backstretch before commencing a stunning rally. Jose Ortiz deftly steered him inside for the run around the far turn, and the colt showed a remarkable willingness to accelerate despite racing in tight quarters. It even briefly appeared as if he’d pose a threat to Justify in the late stages, but he could not quite sustain his bid after making such an elongated run. In retrospect, perhaps it should not come as a major surprise that Gronkowski handled added distance on the dirt. Despite being a son of turf sire Lonhro, Gronkowski has a ton of dirt route pedigree stemming from his female family, and he acts like a horse that should appreciate this classic distance. Some may view it as a negative that he loses Jose Ortiz to Good Magic, but I actually think Joel Rosario is the perfect substitute for a horse with his running style. Based on Gronkowski’s improved work in the morning, Brown doesn’t believe he will come from quite as far back this time, but a projected fast pace certainly would not hinder him. In my opinion, Gronkowski is just as likely to win this race as his stablemate, and he figures to offer better value. He’s my top selection.
Catholic Boy will attempt to win back-to-back Grade 1 races on different surfaces after gamely prevailing in the Belmont Derby on turf. While he’s been most successful on grass, I’m not yet ready to write him off as an inferior dirt horse. His Remsen win still stands out as the one of the best dirt performances by a 2-year-old last year. Some will say that Catholic Boy was a disappointment on the Derby trail earlier this year, but I feel that he did not get ideal trips or setups in either of his dirt races in Florida. His two performances at Belmont this summer were far stronger than any of his turf efforts as a 2-year-old, so it’s possible that he’s just turned a corner for his capable trainer. I don’t quite trust him enough to pick him on top, but it would be unwise to dismiss him due to the surface switch. I’ll be using him in exotics, and I also want to throw in the reliable Bravazo underneath. I don’t think the Lukas trainee is quite up to the task of winning this race, but he’s always around at the end and he’s probably going to get ignored in the wagering this time.
RACE 12: QUIDURA (#6)
This race is all about the Chad Brown trainees. A Raving Beauty is clearly the horse to beat after a rough trip in the Diana. Irad Ortiz seemed to get a bit too impatient coming to the top of the stretch, as he sent her forward despite not having any real room to run. She lost momentum, and then could never get fully clear when trying to re-rally through the stretch. This slight cutback to 1 1/16 miles suits her, and she’s simply the horse to beat. Her biggest threats figure to come from her two stablemates. Off Limits would be dangerous if she could get back to her 2017 form, but she’s disappointed recently and the pace of this race may not work in her favor. I’m actually most interested in Quidura, who makes her second start off the layoff. She lost to her inferior stablemate Fifty Five last time, but she was running over a turf course that she clearly doesn’t like. This daughter of Dubawi wants firm going, and she’s going to get that on Saturday. She proved her quality last year when finishing a strong second to Lady Eli in the Diana, and I would not be surprised to see her get right back to that level in this second start for Chad Brown. She figures to get the jump on A Raving Beauty today, and that may make the difference.
RACE 13: UNCLE LARRY (#10) / A I INITIATIVE (#4)
I think you want to take a shot against the likely favorite Azzedine. This horse has obviously run the fastest speed figures, but he has plenty of hang in him and he was supposed to offer up more of a finishing kick when dropped in for a tag last time. Beyond him, this race is totally wide open, so I think it’s a race where we can go shopping for a price. My top pick is Uncle Larry, who deserves another chance on turf after his disastrous debut over this surface back in June. He was traveling well along the rail that day, appearing to handle the going pretty well – that is, until the half-mile pole when he was pushed into the rail and abruptly checked out of position. The incident was so severe that Tyler Gaffalione almost came out of the irons, and he understandably just eased him home after that. He certainly deserves another chance on the grass, since he’s by Uncle Mo and his dam was strictly a turf/synthetic performer. Among those at bigger prices, I also want to throw in A I Initiative off the lengthy layoff. This horse made one start as a 2-year-old at Saratoga last year, and it was a disaster. He had a meltdown in the gate, got off slowly, and was basically never asked for serious run by Javier Castellano. This runner was clearly unprepared for that debut and it’s taken him a long time to get back to the races. Given the antics on display that day, it’s not surprising to see him return as a new gelding. He’s always been transferred into the barn of Jorge Abreu, who has done a good job with his small stable at this meet.