by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona
Now Available: Exclusive Saratoga betting strategies and unlimited TimeformUS PPs for the Saratoga meet!
On every Friday through Sunday at the Saratoga meet, get exclusive access to betting tickets for David Aragona’s Top Plays, including multi-race bet constructions and other exotic tickets. Also get exclusive access to David's Highlight Horses, as well as opinions on all stakes races. Learn more
Race 1: 5 - 2 - 8 - 6
Race 2: 3 - 7 - 9 - 10
Race 3: 5 - 10 - 8 - 2
Race 4: 4 - 2 - 9 - 7
Race 5: 10 - 8 - 1 - 11
Race 6: 4 - 2
Race 7: 7 - 4 - 3 - 5
Race 8: 1 - 2 - 9 - 3
Race 9: 4 - 10 - 6 - 1
Race 10: 6 - 3 - 5 - 7
Race 11: 3 - 4 - 10 - 5
Race 12: 5 - 1 - 4 - 2
Race 13: 2 - 6 - 4 - 8
RACE 2: SURPRISE TWIST (#3) / RICHMOND STREET (#7)
I’m a fan of Chad Brown’s recent maiden winner Focus Group, but I’m not sure that he’s the right one to bet in this race. He’s a horse that runs like one that will really appreciate marathon distances, so I’m concerned that this cutback to 1 3/16 miles will prove to be too short for him, especially since he needs to improve off his maiden score to beat a few of his rivals here. I’m trying to beat him with a pair of runners that should be more attractive prices. My top pick is Surprise Twist, who ran better than it appears in his local start going a mile earlier in the meet. It can be extremely detrimental to horses’ chances to lose early position in these one-mile races on the inner, and that’s exactly what happened to Surprise Twist early, as he was shuffled back heading into the first turn. All things considered, I thought he did well to nearly get up for second in a race where few others made late runs. I don’t mind this slight stretch-out in distance, and believe we’re likely to see his best effort yet this time. Most of my play will go through him, but I also want to use Richmond Street, who figures to also be a decent price. He didn’t run well last time, but he was also wide on a day when horses racing down towards the hedge had a significant advantage. Something may have happened that day as he was given plenty of time to recover form that effort. He ran well in both starts up at Saratoga last season and is capable of winning with an improved effort. Others worth using include Kabang, who flew through his final three furlongs in 33.04 seconds last time (according to Trakus), and Son of a Saint, who has plenty of turf pedigree on his dam’s side.
RACE 4: THREEFIVEINDIA (#4)
Sticksstatelydude might be the most talented horse in this race, but Kiaran McLaughlin’s numbers off long layoffs in dirt sprints are not spectacular. He’s capable of winning at this distance with his best effort, but I think there are some better options at more attractive prices. The horse that I’m most interested in playing is Threefiveindia, who ran better than it appears last time. The main track started to favor the rail on July 28, especially late in the day, and Threefiveindia was three- to four-wide for much of the way. This horse had disappointed in his first couple of starts this year, but I think he’s now showing that he’s rounding back into the form that carried him to a second-place finish in last fall’s Bold Ruler. I’m using him with the likely favorite, Ostrolenka, and the late-running Spartiatis.
RACE 5: CERISE’S PRINCE (#10)
This pick is either going to make me look smart, or very foolish – and we should know in the first sixteenth of a mile. I believe that Irad Ortiz must know that Cerise’s Prince is at his absolute best when he’s able to ramble along on a clear early lead. Obviously, there is other speed in this race, but Cerise’s Prince is simply faster than horses like Lieutenant Colonel and Cloontia in the early going, and I believe that he can clear form this outside post position of Ortiz is intent on doing so. Cerise’s Prince was simply overmatched against the likes of Disco Partner and Get Jets last time, but he also may not have appreciated having to rate in second place in the early going. He ran exceptionally well two back, when he dueled his early competition into defeat through very fast fractions over a boggy course, and somehow held on to win. Horses that make the lead and can ride the hedge are very dangerous on the turf course when the rails are down, as they are this week. I’ll use him over Profiteer, who faced some of the best three-year-olds of his generation in the Transylvania last time and may be set for a step forward off the layoff, as well as Ray’s the Bar, who is one of the few runners in this field that would benefit from a contested pace.
RACE 6: FOREVER UNBRIDLED (#4)
Songbird is obviously the star attraction in this Grade 1 Personal Ensign. She’s a nose away from a perfect record after 14 starts, and impressively took down two Grade 1 races over this strip last summer. However, as handicappers, we have to analyze her recent performances rather than her overall body of work – and her two efforts this year leave a lot to be desired. I won’t sugarcoat her Delaware Handicap. If she doesn’t improve on that effort here, she is going to lose this race to Forever Unbridled. Dallas Stewart’s star mare is no slouch, having won two Grade 1 races in her own right prior to finishing a strong third to Songbird and Beholder in last fall’s Breeders’ Cup Distaff. Her win at Churchill Downs last time was stronger than the speed figure indicates, since she overcame a slow pace to win under a very confident ride. Her trainer is confident that she’s going to move forward off that effort, and I believe that she – not Songbird – is the most likely winner of this race based on their recent form.
RACE 7: HIGHWAY STAR (#7)
Some may simply regard this as Paulassilverlining’s race to lose as she comes into this undefeated as a five-year-old. However, I think this race is far more wide-open than that. Her longtime rival By the Moon has an excellent chance to turn the tables, since she’s much more adept at this seven furlong distance than the Honorable Miss winner. Carina Mia is also a major player after finishing a solid third in this race last year as a three-year-old. She figures to take a step forward in her second start for the Chad Brown barn. I’ll use all of them, but the horse that interests me most at what should be the best price is Highway Star. Going into the Grade 1 Ogden Phipps, this filly had been undefeated in 7 starts around one turn on the dirt. She lost that day, but hardly disgraced herself finishing third to Songbird and Paid Up Subscriber while holding of today’s rival Carina Mia for third. The distance of that race was probably too far for her, and now she turns back to an ideal seven furlong trip. I like that she’s drawn outside of the speedier horses, so she can work out her preferred stalking trip. If Angel Arroyo can keep her within striking range of the leaders by the head of the lane, I’m confident that she’s fight her way into the mix late. This filly loves a fight, and is fast enough to beat this field with her top effort.
RACE 8: PRACTICAL JOKE (#1)
American Anthem is likely to go favored off his decisive win in the Woody Stephens on Belmont day, but I think he’s facing a tougher test in this Grade 1 event. That’s due to the presence of new faces like Takaful and Coal Front, as well as Grade 1-winning turnback Practical Joke, who is my pick in this race. I’ve been waiting to bet Practical Joke in this race ever since his impressive score in the Dwyer back in early July. That day, he showed a sprinter’s turn of foot as he inhaled his foes through a fast final quarter mile. Even though nine furlongs may be too far for him, he still probably would have won the Haskell had he not gotten caught in traffic on the far turn. He figures to get plenty of pace to close into here with so much speed signed on, and Joel Rosario typically rides this horse perfectly. I’ll use him over the aforementioned trio of runners, and will also throw in Tale of Silence, who is not as talented as my top pick but will also appreciate this turnback.
RACE 9: DIVINING ROD (#4)
Many will regard this as a two-horse race between Drefong, last year’s Breeders’ Cup Sprint winner, and Mind Your Biscuits, the undisputed leader of the sprint division in 2017. I respect both of these runners, but I think there’s a t6 hird horse in this race that is fully capable of spoiling the party. Divining Rod looked like a different horse with the addition of blinkers in last year’s Cigar Mile, giving the highly-regarded Connect all the he could handle through the stretch of that race before just losing by a head. He was given plenty of time off after that effort, but looked just as sharp winning his 2017 debut last time at Laurel, where he sprinted to through the stretch to a facile score while under a hand ride. There is very little speed signed on for this race, and I expect him to be Drefong’s closest pursuer in the early going. I think he’s talented enough to give that foe a serious challenge, and will get the jump on the late-running Mind Your Biscuits. He’s a great bet at anything close to his morning line odds.
RACE 10: ERUPT (#6)
If I were to bet any of the horses coming out of the Bowling Green earlier in the meet, it would be Sadler’s Joy, who moved too soon when making the lead in a race that totally fell apart in the late stages. That said, I think this race is primarily about the European contingent. Idaho was made the slightly shorter price on the morning line, but I feel that Erupt is the one that you want in this spot. Whereas Idaho seemed to appreciate softer ground in his European starts, Erupt has been brought back to this continent in an effort to get him on firm turf. He caught that preferred going in last fall’s Canadian International, and proved superior to Idaho that day. His last race looks very disappointing, but he was basically eased in the late stages over a turf course that had taken significant rain. Furthermore, there was an incident in the stretch that caused a few horses to be pulled up late. He possesses tactical speed, which makes him especially dangerous in a race that lacks a confirmed pacesetter. I’ll use him with the aforementioned two, as well as Money Multiplier, who would be a contender if he could repeat his effort in this race last year.
RACE 11: WEST COAST (#3)
Of the two Todd Pletcher runners, I strongly prefer Tapwrit I have trouble finding any major flaws with the Belmont Stakes winner. He showed his quality in the spring, but was still running like a horse that had not yet figured it all out. He endured a mildly uncomfortable trip in the Kentucky Derby, where he finished a decent sixth, but then came roaring back with a decisive score in the Belmont Stakes. He’s obviously well-equipped to handle this 10-furlong distance, and he possesses the tactical speed to stay within a few lengths of the early leaders. Jose Ortiz has been riding exceptionally well and could be on the brink of racking up another major Grade 1 win. I believe that Tapwrit is the horse to beat, but my top pick in this year’s Travers is West Coast at a slightly better price. This runner has accomplished a bit more than Arrogate had prior to that one’s win in this race last year, but there are still some similarities between the two colts. Like Arrogate, West Coast gives figures to greatly appreciate this stretch-out in distance to 10 furlongs. He’s not a horse with a ton of early speed, but this race is lacking confirmed front-runners, and Mike Smith will be aware of that scenario. I’m fairly confident that he will place him closer to the pace than he’s been in his last two starts. I loved this colt’s effort in the Easy Goer. He was completely eliminated at the start that day, as he was squeezed back between horses, costing him several lengths of position. Despite that early trouble, he proceeded to make a strong mid-race move to challenge for the lead before pulling away in the lane. He was more workmanlike in his Los Alamitos Derby victory, but that was orchestrated to serve as a prep, and I think we’ll see a tighter performance on Saturday. I’ll be playing against the horses coming out of the Haskell. I don’t think McCraken wants to go the distance, and I thought Girvin was just picking up the pieces at the end of that race. At a more attractive price, I’m somewhat interested in longshot Irap (#10), the horse that defeated Girvin in the Ohio Derby. He bounced out of that race with a dominant win in Indiana, earning the highest last-out TimeformUS Speed Figure in the field (123). He possesses the tactical speed to stay close to a moderate early pace, and is definitely worth including in exotics.
RACE 12: ANTONOE (#5)
This is primarily a two-horse race between Chad Brown’s top runners, Lady Eli and Antonoe. Lady Eli got the better of Antonoe in the Diana, but she got a slightly better trip. Even though she was wider than her stablemate, Antonoe was put in a tight spot rallying down inside in the stretch and was steadied out of position late. It’s unclear whether or not she would have won or finished second, but she showed that she’s every bit Lady Eli’s equal. I think this slight turnback in distance will benefit Antonoe, and she figures to be a more attractive price.
RACE 13: ADMIRALS COVE (#2)
In this wide-open finale, I want to take a shot against the favorites with Admirals Cove, who drops into maiden claiming company for David Donk. Over the past five years, Donk is 5 for 20 (25 percent, $2.30 ROI) with maidens dropping into claiming company for the first time in turf races. This colt should benefit from experience since he was extremely green in his first two races. Donk has taken some time to work with him since then and he now gets a positive rider switch to Manny Franco.