by David Aragona
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Race 1: 6 - 8 - 5 - 10
Race 2: 7 - 8 - 4 - 3
Race 3: 3 - 5 - 2 - 9
Race 4: 9 - 7 - 8 - 4
Race 5: 2 - 3 - 5 - 6
Race 6: 6 - 8 - 7 - 10
Race 7: 5 - 2 - 7 - 8
Race 8: 2 - 5 - 1 - 3
Race 9: 6 - 8 - 5 - 3
Race 10: 5 - 8 - 9 - 7
Race 11: 8 - 4 - 12 - 5
RACE 2: UNCLE SIGH (#7)
The Rock Says is the horse to beat in this spot as he returns at the same level at which he finished third on opening day. He ran well that day, stalking the pace from his outside post position, and was in striking range late while unable to forge past the leaders. Given the way he hung that day, it’s not totally surprising that Stanley Hough is adding blinkers for this start. He makes plenty of sense, but I don’t think he has much margin for error at a short price. This race matches a few up and coming 3-year-olds against sold old pros, and I want to take a horse in the latter category. Uncle Sigh was once a graded stakes quality runner, but he’s no longer capable of such performances now as an 8-year-old. That said, he has run well against open company on a number of occasions over the past few season, mostly for the Chris Englehart barn last year. I thought it was quite interesting when Englehart claimed him back for a different owner this April, and he subsequently moved him up in class to the N2X New York-bred allowance level. While he didn’t win that day, he would have finished much closer if not for an incident around the far turn that cause him to steady at a point when he was attempting to move into the lead. Now, rather than running back at the same level, Englehart is moving him up again into this open protected allowance spot. He’s apparently been training well for this race, as his work on July 13 was in company with universal tip horse Gilda Marie, who won here last week. I also want to throw in Proschema underneath. This 3-year-old is a little interesting off the trainer switch to Bill Mott after showing improvement for his prior barn.
RACE 4: COLTANDMISSISSIPPI (#9)
The tepid favorite figures to be Hay Dakota, who returns at a similar class level after winning off the claim for Eddie Keneally last time. Kenneally had trained him back in January when he just missed in a blanket finish at Gulfstream. He lost him soon after, but it’s a very good sign that Kenneally saw fit to claim him back at Churchill this spring. His second start for this barn was even better than the first, as he dominated a group of claimers at this level last time, impressively spurting away in the lane as the race fell apart behind him. Kenneally does fairly well second off the claim with horses that won for him first off the claim. I’m using him prominently, but my top pick is Coltandmississippi, who may be a slightly better price. Though it’s not apparent from a glance at his recent form, this horse might actually be best on the turf. He earned a Grade 2 placing on grass in the Penn Mile as a 3-year-old and his last two efforts on this surface are not nearly as bad as they seem. He was going out for a barn that doesn’t win very much and he was spotted badly, over his head in the Danger’s Hour and then at the wrong distance just 12 days later. The claim by Jason Servis is meaningful and I think he’s found the perfect spot for this horse. At his best, he’s good enough to compete against these horses and some may underrate him due to the perception that he he’s running on the wrong surface. Others in this race scare me. Siding Spring makes plenty of sense as he drops out of some tougher spots out of town. Applicator is also in career form, but he may have to deal with some other speed in this spot.
RACE 5: DISCO PARTNER (#2)
The scratch of World of Trouble completely changes this race from a pace standpoint. Now Pure Sensation is in a position to control the pace while facing token pressure from Rocket Heat. Pure Sensation was previously facing a difficult pace scenario with World of Trouble in the race, but now he has to be considered viable win candidate. My only concern about this 8-year-old gelding is that 5 1/2 furlongs is slightly farther than his ideal 5-furlong trip. He also seems to do his best work outside of New York these days, showing a particular affinity for the Parx turf course. I have the utmost respect for him, but I'm just a little skeptical that we're going to see his best effort in this spot. I still prefer his stablemate Disco Parnter. In retrospect, Disco Partner's Jaipur performance was not as disappointing as some proclaimed in the immediate aftermath. The pace of that race was quite moderate for the distance, and Disco Partner had little chance to close late. He actually did well to get as close as he did by the eighth pole, running his penultimate eighth in 10 3/5 seconds, according to Trakus. He has a reputation for being a Belmont horse, but he’s run well enough to win these races at Saratoga in the past. The key for him is firm turf, and he’s going to get that on Saturday. He shouldn't be too hindered by a more moderate pace since he does possess the tactical speed to place himself closer to the pace than last time. As long as he works out a reasonable trip, I think his late kick can carry him to another stakes victory.
RACE 7: SACRED LIFE (#5)
The scratch of Gidu significantly changes the expected pace of this race, as Voodoo Song now figures to set the early tempo. Voodoo Song is exiting the Forbidden Apple earlier in the meet where he allowed Gidu to go on and set the pace and chased throughout. He's much better when he's able to run freely on the front end and Jose Lezcano has been known to get aggressive with him when he’s ready to fire. I still have some doubts about his current form after that dull return effort, but he's been known to need a race or two to get fit in the past. I wouldn't be shocked when he takes them a long way up front, so I'm going to upgrade his chances slightly. Lucullan should be coming from farther back in the pack this time than was the case in his allowance score last month. I thought it was an encouraging return race, as he appeared to win with something left in the tank despite facing an inferior field. He was always cut out to be a graded stakes type, so it would be no surprise to see him strut through this restricted race on his way to bigger things. I’m using him prominently, but my top pick is the recent import Sacred Life. Chad Brown just has fantastic statistics with horses like this. Over the past 5 years, he is 7 for 16 (44%, $3.25 ROI) with foreign shippers on turf at Saratoga. This horse worked with Mascha, who was an impressive winner here on Wednesday. While he didn’t win much as a 3-year-old in France, he showed a strong late kick in a few of those races. He had shown promise early in his career and should appreciate getting a chance to run over firm ground here.
RACE 8: BELLAFINA (#2)
The four major contenders in this Test are very difficult to separate. While the Pace Projector is not predicting a fast pace, it does seem likely that the two main speeds, Serengeti Empress and Covfefe, will hook up in the early going. Covfefe has been faster on average, as the Pace Projector indicates, but Serengeti Empress flashed dazzling early speed in the Acorn last time. If she is gunned to the front in the same manner, Covfefe may be the one that’s struggling to keep up. It should be a fascinating matchup, but the early chess match between those two may set it up for the stalkers, and those are the fillies I prefer. Royal Charlotte has to run a bit faster to keep her undefeated record intact, but she’s risen to every challenge thus far. I was thoroughly impressed by her win in the Victory Ride last time, as she put in a strong rally to run down the solid filly Cookie Dough before drawing off late. Seven furlongs should be within her wheelhouse and she may benefit most of all from a fast early pace. Yet, I have to go with the returning Bellafina as my top pick. I know that things went awry for her in late spring and some might be tempted to argue that she simply went off form. However, I’ve always been of the opinion that shorter distances are ideal for this filly, so the turnback to 7 furlongs should wake her up. Her one-turn races are arguably her best performances, and she’s shown the ability to stalk in those efforts. She appears to be working very well out at Del Mar and I believe she can put on a show on Saturday.
RACE 9: MCKINZIE (#6)
This Whitney features most of the top handicap horses in the country. As much as I prefer to search for value in these races and bet horses at big prices, I find it impossible to get past the likely favorite McKinzie. There are some differing opinions about his Met Mile trip. Did he ride a strong rail bias for much of the way and get a strong pace to close into? Yes. Was he going to win that race without the traffic trouble he encountered in the stretch? Again, yes. Even when you take all that went right into consideration, there’s no denying that McKinzie ran another fantastic race in the Met Mile, putting his admirable versatility on display. Nine furlongs is probably as far as he wants to go, but he’s proven that he can put forth top efforts at this distance in the past. He appears to be working as well as ever for this Saratoga start and the Pace Projector is predicting that he should be stalking a pace that favors horses near the front. I’m a fan of some other horses in this race, but I think they’re going to have a tough time taking down this Baffert trainee. Preservationist feels like the main rival off his extraordinary performance in the Suburban. As someone who has followed this horse’s career, that effort was not a total shock, since he’s always had that kind of ability and just needed the time to put it all together. Yet, as impressive as he was, it must be noted that he benefited from a very favorable pace setup and was facing a weaker field than the one he meets here. He’s heading in the right direction, but this is a significant class test. I’ll also use the improving Vino Rosso, who seems like he’s finally putting it all together as a 4-year-old, and I'll even throw in potential speed Monongahela, who goes out for a dangerous barn. Yet they will all be hard-pressed to overhaul McKinzie.
RACE 10: ROCK MY LOVE (#5)
Got Stormy is simply the horse to beat and a deserving favorite in this De La Rose. I really can’t find any faults with her form. She ran an excellent race to be third in a tough edition of the Jenny Wiley two back and then she did even better when run down by an in-form Beau Recall in the Distaff Mile last time. That was an exceptional performance because she made the first move into an honest pace that ultimately collapsed. One mile is the perfect distance for her and this slight drop in class may be exactly what she needs. The only drawback is that she is likely going to be a short price in what is otherwise a competitive race. Chad Brown entered a few runners, but the only one that really interests me is Stella di Camelot. It remains to be seen how she stacks up against top company in this division, but this seems like a good class level for her at the moment. I thought she ran very well in the Intercontinental last time, as she made a strong late rally into a slow pace. A mile is a better distance for her and I think she merits respect. However, my top pick is Rock my Love. This filly’s form in France was pretty spotty last year, as her connections experimented with different class levels and distances. She was off for a long time prior to her U.S. debut and I thought she gave a solid account of herself to be fourth. She was far too keen in the early stages of that race, tugging Flavien Prat into the lead and basically running off. She actually did well to maintain her advantage until the final furlong before fading late. A mile and a quarter may be a bit far for her anyway, and I actually like this turnback to a flat mile. She clearly has the tactical speed to work out a good trip going this distance and I believe she’s dangerous at a square price.
RACE 11: FLED (#8)
Veterans Beach is the likely favorite off his runner-up effort at this level on opening day of the meet. He would be formidable here with a similar effort, and this is obviously a good distance for him. The only problem is that his form is totally exposed at this point, so he’s unlikely to offer any value. I think there are some intriguing new faces in this group that merit consideration. One of those is first time turfer Red Zinger, who has sneaky pedigree to handle this surface. Shorter distances appear to be better for him and he logged a bullet 3-furlong drill over the Saratoga training track turf recently. I’d also use Bourbon Mission, who switches back to turf immediately off the claim by Joe Sharp, who is always dangerous with turf sprinters. I’m using all of them, but my top pick is the shipper Fled. This 5-year-old recently made his turf debut against a vastly inferior field while racing for a $16,000 tag at Laurel. While it would be tempting to say that his 5-length margin of victory was merely a product of his competition, this horse looked like a completely different animal racing on the grass. He was allowed to stalk slow early fractions, but he still showed some impressive closing speed in the lane. He traveled so well throughout and won so easily, that I think it’s reasonable to expect he could do better against a stronger field. It probably should not be a huge surprise that he improved on turf, since his dam is a full-sister to turf stakes winner Miss Southern Miss. This is not the toughest field for the level and this low-profile barn should ensure that he goes off at a generous price.