by David Aragona
 

Get the wagering strategy for this card in this year’s TimeformUS Saratoga Betting Strategies package, which includes PPs for each day of the meet, exclusive access to the daily Highlight Horse, multi-race ticket constructions, and additional analysis of every stakes race at the meet. More info ›

PICKS

 
Race 1:   4 - 6 - 3 - 2
Race 2:   6 - 2 - 7 - 1
Race 3:   3 - 2 - 5 - 6
Race 4:   1 - 4 - 5 - 8
Race 5:   1 - 3 - 10 - 8
Race 6:   2 - 3 - 6 - 4
Race 7:   3 - 4 - 9 - 5
Race 8:   1 - 3 - 2 - 4
Race 9:   11 - 2 - 1 - 7
Race 10:   7 - 2 - 5 - 4
Race 11:   1 - 9 - 7 - 5
Race 12:   8 - 4 - 5 - 1

PLAYS

 
RACE 4: FULLY VESTED (#1)
The Pace Projector is predicting a situation in which there is no speed, but there actually is a horse in this race who would enjoy racing on the front end. Fully Vested has clearly run his best races as the early leader, and he’s likely to revert to those tactics from this rail draw. For whatever reason, Fully Vested didn’t flash his typical speed from the gate in his turf debut at Monmouth two back. Yet, after less than an eighth of a mile, he wanted to run up and contest the lead, and Joe Bravo elected to restrain him in the second flight. He ended up getting caught very wide outside of a drifting rival. Fully Vested has never been known as a horse who wants to pass rivals in the lane, yet on this day he unleashed a strong late rally that carried him to second place. Overall, the trip was awkward and the performance was better than it seems. The winner of that race, Justaholic, returned next time to win a stakes with an impressive 119 TimeformUS Speed Figure. It should not come as a major shock that he handles the turf better here, since he’s a half-brother to turf stakes winner Midnight Watch and a full brother to turf sprint winner Great Import. He’s my to p pick, but there are others to consider. Fig Jelly makes sense after also finishing second to Justaholic at Monmouth, though he may be the favorite off that effort. I’d also include Pagliacci, who is in top form for Linda Rice.
 

RACE 6: GOOD GOVERNANCE (#2)
This race is likely to scratch down to five with Tracksmith expected to compete in the Virginia Derby instead. Seismic Wave is the class of this field as he drops out of a series prestigious events. He was actually the favorite in the 14-horse Belmont Derby two back and, while he did have some traffic trouble, he a disappointment that day. Yet at least he still put in a solid effort in the stretch. That was not the case in the Saratoga Derby last time, as he was unable to overcome a wide trip and offered absolutely nothing in the stretch. I suppose it’s possible for the class relief to wake him up, but he won’t be getting much help in the pace department. The Pace Projector is predicting that Rinaldi will be out front setting what should be an uncontested lead, and that figures to make him dangerous. This New York-bred has never faced company of this caliber, but he looked great destroying a field going a mile last time. This son of Posse has stepped forward with each start and he finished up last time like 1 1/16 miles wouldn’t be a major issue. I’m using him prominently at a square price, but my top pick is the second time starter Good Governance. You’re not going to get much of a price on this Chad Brown trainee, but that makes sense after he ran so well to win his debut. Horses typically need to show speed or save ground in one-mile races on the inner turf course, and Good Governance did neither of those things. He was reserved at the back of the pack going 4-wide around both turns, yet he still closed down his well-meant stablemate Doswell to get the victory. This British-bred colt had always trained well, so the fact that he’s following in the footsteps of other overseas yearling purchases for this barn is no surprise. If he steps forward at all, he’s going to be a handful in this spot.
 

RACE 8: GET SET (#1)
Mr Jaggers took a ton of money in his debut to be bet down to 2-1 for Bill Mott, a trainer not known for winning with first time starting 2-year-olds. The horse got a decent trip, had to a go a little wide, and just got outfinished by the runner-up. That’s proven to be a decent race, as both the second and fourth place finishers returned to win impressively. I won’t be surprised when he takes a step forward second time out, but there are other horses with upside in this field. Policy Option also put in a solid effort in his debut, but I believe he’s coming out of a weaker race and I didn’t think he had a major excuse. Furthermore, Chad Brown often has his horses ready to fire first time out. I’m going in a slightly different direction by taking first time turfer Get Set. This gelding’s sire Awesome of Course is not the best turf influence, but his dam’s family suggests the surface switch should be to his liking. His dam Enthusiastic Gal is a multiple turf winner at a variety of distances and her half-sister Sweet Bye and Bye is also a minor stakes winner on turf. This colt raced greenly in his debut, reacting badly to kickback heading into the far turn before staying on evenly late. He moves like a horse who should appreciate the switch to turf and Steve Klesaris is 7-for-27 (26%, $3.39) with second-time starting maidens over 5 years.
 

RACE 9: TAKE CHARGE AUBREY (#11)
A few horses are exiting the 10th race on July 24. The one likely to attract the most support from that affair is Proximity Bias, who finished third behind Prioress starter Risky Mandate. I thought this Chad Brown trainee put in a solid effort considering that it was her first start off a lengthy layoff. She chased the pace while wide and was in a somewhat uncomfortable position between horses in upper stretch before battling on gamely for third. If she steps forward, she may just be too good for these, but I want another horse out of that July 24 race. Take Charge Aubrey has had more chances than the aforementioned runner, but she’s also run some faster speed figures when she’s been at her best. She showed real potential in New York-bred races last season, finishing a close second in the Fleet Indian before going onto optional claiming success at Belmont in the fall. Yet her performance that impressed me most was the 7-furlong race she ran on Aug. 13 over this course last summer. I’ve always felt that slightly shorter trips are better for this filly, so I love that Bruce Levine is keeping her at 7 furlongs despite the disappointing return. This barn is not very good off layoffs, so I would expect her to move forward with that run under her belt. She’s my top pick at what should be a square price. I would also use Hallawallah, who figures to appreciate the turnback after trying much tougher foes in the Indiana Oaks. The horse that I’m somewhat against is Arrifana. She will attract support off her visually impressive debut, but that field she beat might as well have been a $25,000 maiden claimer given what was behind her. She needs to get faster to compete against these.
 

RACE 10: LADY MONTDORE (#7)
Fools Gold won the Waya as the “other Chad” runner when heavy favorite Santa Monica threw in a clunker. She has clearly improved since stretching out to these marathon distances, primarily by making better use of her tactical speed in some paceless races. Santa Monica has obviously run faster speed figures when she’s at her best, but we didn’t see anything close to her top performance in the Waya. Frankly, she hasn’t exactly been in top form for quite some time despite picking up a few wins over the past year. This 6-year-old mare succumbed to a slow pace as the favorite in this race last year and that’s a danger once again with no clear speed signed on. Mrs. Sippy seems like one potential alternative to the Chad Brown runners. She was only two lengths behind Arc runner-up Sea of Class back in June 2018, and her subsequent Timeform Ratings stack up well against this group. However, she’s been totally uncompetitive in two starts this season. Perhaps she didn’t care for the ground, or maybe she just needs Lasix. I’ll use her and the others in some capacity, but I’m taking a shot with Lady Montdore as she shoots for the Glens Falls repeat. She clearly benefited from a very favorable pace scenario last year in a race that featured no other speeds, but she finds herself facing a similar scenario again. The problem this time is that she’s coming off a string of poor efforts. It would be fair to excuse her loss in the Sheepshead Bay due to the boggy going, and then last time she didn’t the most comfortable trip, having to surrender the lead before getting bumped around at the quarter pole. The class relief may help and getting back to Saratoga does wonders for some horses.
 

RACE 11: MR. BUFF (#1)
This Woodward is a fascinating race without a clear standout. The main players are obviously exiting the Whitney won by McKinzie. Yoshida finished closest to the winner that day after making a menacing move approaching the quarter pole. This colt is clearly back in top form, reminding me of the horse that won multiple Grade 1 races in 2018. However, his task will not be easy here. As was the case in the Whitney, there is not much speed signed on, so he may have to overcome a somewhat unfavorable pace scenario. Preservationist should not be hindered by a lack of speed in this field, but I am somewhat concerned that he just isn’t as effective going 1 1/8 miles at Saratoga after his disappointing Whitney effort. While finishing fourth in such a prestigious race is nothing to sneeze at, much was expected of him as the 2-1 second choice. I have similar feelings about Vino Rosso, who never really threatened to win while just staying on evenly for third. While I respect the Whitney runners, there are some intriguing new faces to consider. Tom’s d’Etat must be respected off his visually impressive Alydar score. He clearly loves this distance and he’s put forth some of his best efforts at Saratoga. I’m using him prominently, but I want to go for a slightly better price. Mr. Buff may be dismissed by some due to his New York-bred résumé. However, I think John Kimmel and the connections are smart to try this Grade 1 while this horse is in such great form. That last effort in the Evan Shipman displayed how good he is right now, as he was put in an uncomfortable spot rating and having to come through a narrow opening inside on the backstretch. Despite that adversity, he still earned a Grade 1-type TimeformUS Speed Figure of 129. Furthermore, he’s the controlling speed from the rail. He’s a horse who can go fast early and still finish off a race. Perhaps a win will be just out of his reach, but don’t be surprised when he leads them into deep stretch.