PICKS

Race 1:   11 - 2 - 8 - 1
Race 2:   4 - 3 - 2 - 1/1A
Race 3:   4 - 5 - 1 - 2
Race 4:   5 - 10 - 7 - 6
Race 5:   5 - 2 - 3 - 8
Race 6:   4 - 9 - 11 - 2
Race 7:   2 - 1 - 7 - 11
Race 8:   10 - 6 - 8 - 4
Race 9:   6 - 5 - 4 - 2
Race 10:   8 - 7 - 10 - 1
Race 11:   3 - 7 - 6 - 8

TOP PLAYS

RACE 4: STRONG CURRENT (#5)
A few of the first-time starters in this field have nice pedigrees for turf, but I generally try to give preference to those with experience in these two- turn 2-year-old maiden races. Of those who have tried turf, I prefer Survey, a son of Galileo who should improve with added ground after getting a wide trip in his sprint debut. However, my top selection is the first-time turfer Strong Current. This horse does not have a ton of turf pedigree on his dam's side even though he is a half-brother to a four-time turf winner. However, he is a son of Orb, whose progeny have taken to turf quite well in a very limited sample of runners. This colt was a bit green in his debut and displayed a high-striding action that leads me to believe the move to turf will agree with him.

RACE 7: TAKEOVER TARGET (#2)
Projected is obviously the horse to beat. He was probably best in the Poker last time out, when he was badly herded by the eventual winner through the final quarter-mile, and all of his prior efforts have been solid. He's drawn perfectly down inside, and his tactical speed makes him dangerous in a race that is predicted to favor runners on or near the lead. He may face his biggest challenges from his Chad Brown stablemates, though each is coming off an extended layoff. The one who I think will offer the best value is Takeover Target. I know that some may be turned off by his poor efforts prior to the layoff last year. However, I have to take it as a positive sign that his connections are bringing him back in this spot. Furthermore, he's probably going to encounter the kind of softer turf course he prefers with rain in the forecast for Saturday.

RACE 8: AMERICAN GAL (#10) / CURSOR (#6)
My top pick is American Gal. I was a big fan of this filly's efforts as a 2-year-old. She probably ran the best race in the Breeders' Cup before finishing a good second to Abel Tasman in the Starlet, and she picked up right where she left off in her return at Belmont. She was a decisive winner of the Victory Ride at Belmont, finishing in a manner that suggests that this extra half-furlong should be no issue for her. I believe she's the most talented runner in the field and give her the slight edge over Faypien. I'll primarily focus on these two fillies, but I also want to use Cursor at a big price. There are very few true closing sprinters in this field, and at least we know that Cursor would benefit from a contested pace going this distance. It's true that her allowance win last time was relatively slow, but she was much the best that day and may be ready for this next step.

RACE 10: BAR OF GOLD (#8)
With the scratch of Sassy Little Lila, On Leave becomes the horse to beat. Some speed has scratched out of the race, but On Leave possesses a versatile running style and should be able to adapt to any scenario. I'm definitely using her, but I'm going to try to add some value to the mix with Bar of Gold. Some may say that she just hasn't shown enough on turf, and that's fair. Yet I think she has subtly run better than it seems in both of her turf starts. She possesses a short burst of speed, and her riders have used it too early, making premature moves into slow paces in each of her grass starts. This time, a more honest pace should allow Irad Ortiz Jr. to settle at the back of the pack and delay her run until late in the race. If she gets the right trip, I think she can make some noise here.

RACE 11: REALM (#3)
Neolithic probably will win this race at a short price, but I would want some additional coverage if I were playing multirace bets ending here. Obviously, his best efforts would win this, but it remains to be seen if he's going to be ready to win at this distance off the layoff. My best alternative is Realm. I know that his recent form looks awful, but he actually showed some signs of life last time despite getting shuffled back approaching the quarter pole. Barclay Tagg continues to press on with him, and he gets some class relief here.