by David Aragona
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Race 1: 9 - 10 - 3 - 6
Race 2: 1 - 5 - 2 - 3
Race 3: 4 - 2 - 3 - 5
Race 4: 1 - 6 - 2 - 8
Race 5: 2 - 1 - 8 - 7
Race 6: 2 - 9 - 5 - 8
Race 7: 8 - 9 - 5 - 7
Race 8: 7 - 6 - 5 - 2
Race 9: 4 - 6 - 2 - 3
Race 10: 5 - 3 - 8 - 2
Race 11: 6 - 12 - 7 - 8
RACE 3: TOMATO BILL (#4)
The deserving favorite in this Sanford is Cucina. I like what I’ve seen out of this colt in his first couple of races. He didn’t get off to the smoothest start last time and found himself in midpack early. He then got a little rank under Jose Ortiz but did well to advance through traffic and finished up with good energy while running down a well-meant firster. My only concern is that he seemed to really relish the sloppy, sealed track last time, and he was meant to compete over turf that day. It’s unclear if he’s quite as effective over fast going since his debut effort at Gulfstream wouldn’t quite make him good enough. The main alternatives appear to be Raging Whiskey and By Your Side. The former was facing a tough field in his debut, as both runners who finished ahead of him returned to win stakes in their next starts. He was more professional last time, and I think he’s quite dangerous off the trainer switch to Doug O’Neill. By Your Side was not nearly as flashy in his maiden victory, but he did well to grind out the win. I’m using all of them, but I want to take a shot with Tomato Bill at a slightly better price. This horse only earned a 77 TimeformUS Speed Figure in his debut, but I liked the way he accomplished it. He broke sharply and made the front but had to fend off multiple challenges as four horses lined up across the track for the run around the far turn. He did well to cut the corner at the top of the lane and drew off with authority as the others who contested the pace faded. The fourth-place finisher from that heat returned to win his next start while improving his TimeformUS Speed Figure by 26 points, so the race may have been stronger than it appears. Furthermore, the Pace Projector is predicting that he will be clearly in front early, and I don’t see a ton of other speed in this race.
RACE 5: PAPER CLIP (#2)
The entry figures to take plenty of action in this spot, with Originator being the one who seems most dangerous. This filly is getting some significant class relief in her return from the layoff. While she failed to win again last year after impressively scoring in her debut, she nevertheless ran well against stakes company on a number of occasions. She was second behind the previously undefeated Road to Victory in the Alywow and then ran a game second in the Coronation Cup over this course. Ian Wilkes stepped her up against older horses in her most recent start at Kentucky Downs, and she wasn’t quite up to the task. Yet if she merely replicates her 2018 form in this return, she will probably beat this field. The only potential concern is that she is a closer in a race that may not feature a ton of early speed. My top pick is Paper Clip, who should get sent to the front from her rail post position, according to the Pace Projector. She showed some potential as a 2- year-old, running well on both dirt and turf. Yet she really seemed to step forward in her return on the grass last time at Churchill Downs. That was a fairly strong field for the level, and she absolutely dominated, running them off their feet while earning a field-best 110 TimeformUS Speed Figure. If she can repeat that effort against winners, I believe she’ll be very tough for these to handle. The other runners to consider are Turf War and Catch a Thrill, but both need to improve somewhat off layoffs to beat the aforementioned pair.
RACE 7: RED ZINGER (#8)
This is a fairly perplexing race since many of those with the fastest speed figures are coming off poor efforts. One horse who fits into that category is Red Zinger, yet I still believe he’s the horse to beat. This colt showed some talent as a 2-year-old at Saratoga last summer. He returned from a long layoff this year and ran a series of races that would make him very competitive at this level. He was no match for the highly talented Fort Worth in April, but he returned in an off-the-turf race in May to win in dominant fashion over a good group. While he achieved encouraging results in those one-mile races, I wasn’t thrilled with the way he was finishing, so I found it somewhat curious that his connections stuck to that distance in his first start against winners. He flashed good speed in that June 6 affair but did so while racing well off the rail on a day when the inside path was the place to be. That was a much stronger effort than it appears, and I think this horse is really going to appreciate the cutback to six furlongs. He may go off as the favorite, but he would be a lukewarm one, and I just think he’s the right horse to take on top. The others all have their flaws. Amundson ran a decent speed figure last time, but he did so over a sloppy track against a weak field. He will have other speed to deal with in this spot. Lutsky is somewhat intriguing off the trainer switch to Jorge Navarro, but his poor recent form is of great concern.
RACE 8: FIRST WAVE (#7)
Likely favorite Peaceful’s debut at Monmouth was highly encouraging. She was off about a length slowly and found herself rating at the back of the pack behind some sluggish runners for about 3 furlongs. She eventually worked her way into the clear for the stretch drive and finished like a freight train to get up for second. The third place finisher from that race Bye Bye Nicky was coming off turf TimeformUS Speed Figures of 109 and 101, so there was some quality in that field. Furthermore, Jonathan Thomas is 3 for 5 (60 percent, $2.92 ROI) with second time starting maidens in turf sprints over the past 5 years. She needs to avoid getting left at the start again, but clearly has talent. The other horse with turf experience who merits respect is Miss You Blues. She made a positive impression in her turf debut back in May, closing well to be fourth in a race dominated up front. Last time she had little chance to close on a pair of Wesley Ward runners last out considering they came home in 22-flat. It’s interesting that the blinkers go back on here considering that she was so keen two back, but perhaps she won’t have an opportunity to get as rank with a faster tempo up front. I’m using both of these fillies, but my top pick is first time turfer First Wave. This filly attracted solid tote support despite getting rained off the grass first time out. Trainer Rusty Arnold is 4-1-1-1 (25 percent, $6.35 ROI) with second time starting maidens in turf sprints over the past 5 years, and the winner was multiple stakes winner Morticia. This filly’s sire War Front wins with 12% of his first time turfers. The dam (3-for-14, $122k) was a turf horse who won twice on the surface, and she has produced turf winner Tropical Wave (1-for-14, $76k), as well as Cardiac Kid who runs in the 6th race on this card. She will be dangerous if she improves at all on grass.
RACE 11: COLTRANE (#6)
Prognostication can obviously win this race at what figures to be a fairly short price. However, I have some reservations about this runner and would be wary of leaning on him too heavily in multi-race wagers ending here. While he earned a series of superior speed figures last season, his loss as the favorite in his return was alarming. That was a much tougher field than this one, but he never showed any willingness to finish off that race for a trainer who typically has them ready to go off long breaks. I’m using him defensively, but I prefer others. Catch a Cab is one that intrigues me. This horse showed some ability through the middle of 2018, but tailed off through the fall. He had trouble recapturing top form for trainer John Toscano earlier this year, but now he’s been claimed by the dangerous Jason Servis. This barn does better off the claim with turf sprinters, but this horse should still merit respect. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him show a bit more tactical speed from this outside slot. It would be wise, since there is not a ton of pace in this race. Therefore, I’ve landed on the likely front-runner Coltrane. This horse lacks consistency, but if you dissect his past performances, it’s fairly apparent that he only runs effectively when he’s able to make a clear early lead. According to the TimeformUS Pace Projector, he should be able to do that in this spot. Speed is always dangerous going a flat mile on this inner turf course. He wants firm ground and the surface should have dried out quite a bit following Thursday’s rain. At his best, he’s capable of competing against this field, as he showed when earning a 113 TimeformUS Speed Figure back in January. His past performance lines show many red color-coded fractions, indicating that he’s a horse who has been compromised by pace on many occasions. He may respond very kindly to a more favorable scenario this time and he’s going to be a square price.