by David Aragona
Now Available: TimeformUS Saratoga PPs and Betting Strategies
Gain access to TimeformUS PPs for all 40 days of the Saratoga meet, plus betting strategies – recommended wagers for each of David Aragona's daily Top Plays, fully constructed multi-race tickets including daily Pick-4s and Pick-5s, and additional strategic information around playing every card. You will also receive exclusive access to David's Highlight Horses, as well as opinions on all stakes races. Learn more ›
Race 1: 3 - 1/1A - 5 - 6
Race 2: 1 - 8 - 10 - 3
Race 3: 5 - 3 - 4 - 1
Race 4: 4 - 2 - 6 - 3
Race 5: 7 - 6 - 3 - 4
Race 6: 6 - 2 - 3 - 10
Race 7: 7 - 4 - 1 - 8
Race 8: 10 - 4 - 11 - 3
Race 9: 2 - 8 - 1 - 4
Race 10: 6 - 1 - 7 - 2
Race 11: 10 - 11 - 6 - 9
RACE 2: SIR WINSTON (#1)
Chad Brown looks to have the favorite in this race with first time starter Digital Footprint. While he doesn’t possess overwhelming turf pedigree, he is by Giant’s Causeway out of a half-sister to Unrivaled Belle, so he’s bred to be classy. You can generally trust this barn to have them ready in spots like this. The other first time starters are not quite as convincing. I’m instead interested in a few runners with experience. Each of the four horses trying turf for the first time has some pedigree for grass, but the one that I want to bet is Sir Winston. This horse was very sluggish through the early stages of his debut, but was actually running on well at the end in a race that finished up quickly. While his pedigree doesn’t scream turf at first glance, there is plenty of evidence that he will handle it on his dam’s side. The dam herself handled turf but ran primarily on synthetic surfaces, earning over $300,000 in her career. Going back to the second generation, it’s apparent that this is a family of turf horses, as her second dam was a stakes winner on grass. I don’t mind the rail draw in these two-turn juvenile races. The others I’ll consider are Johny’s Bobby, whose dam was a talented turf/synthetic runner; and Seanow, who wasn’t terribly professional in his debut and may like the grass.
RACE 3: BEHAVIORAL BIAS (#5)
Awesome Slew is the class of this field. Some may be concerned about his uncharacteristically poor effort in the Met Mile last time, but the pace of that race did not suit his style. While he doesn’t often find himself in the winner’s circle, he’s clearly capable of competing with Grade 1 company when he’s at his best. I think he’s a formidable presence in this spot, but I’m once again concerned about his lack of speed. The Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring runners on or near the lead, as there is very little speed signed on. His main rival is Rally Cry after the scratch of Wonderful Light, but he is not really a sprinter, so this feels like a prep for another race at the meet. I’m more intrigued by Kentucky shipper Behavioral Bias, who figures to go off at a more attractive price. This gelding ran the best race of his career over this track last year when stepping up to crush a field of maidens. Since then, he’s steadily improved for Al Stall, despite the fact that he’s tried to stretch him out in distance recently. This horse does not want to go two turns, so he should appreciate the turnback in distance here.
RACE 4: WAR CABINET (#4)
The two fillies exiting the 6th race on June 30 are likely to attract support here. Plans to Prosper was just edged out for third by Agreeable in the late stages after attempting to make a run up the rail. That’s not always an ideal position for a late runner, and the distance of that race may have been a tad short for her. Plans to Prosper is bred to handle more ground, and I like that she showed improved tactical speed with the addition of blinkers last time. Agreeable has to back up her most recent effort, since it was far better than any of the work she had done prior. The rider change to Jose Ortiz doesn’t hurt, and she is also bred to get added ground. Shamrock Babe showed good tactical speed in her most recent effort, in which she defeated Nantucket Red, the winner of the Belmont race that the aforementioned pair are exiting. She, too, is dangerous. I’m using these runners, but the horse that interests me most is War Cabinet. This filly made her U.S. debut back in April at Keeneland, and the running line comment fails to note that she had a nightmare of a trip. After breaking a step slowly and getting squeezed back, she became extremely rank under Javier Castellano, throwing her head about for nearly 3 furlongs after the start. Once she finally settled down, she attempted to launch a wide bid, but that was never going to work in a race that featured a slow pace. Shug McGaughey has given her plenty of time since then, and now stretches her out to 1 3/16 miles for her return. This filly has a stellar stamina pedigree, since she is a full sister to Homesman, the third place finisher in the 10-furlong Grade 1 Belmont Derby. Her dam is actually a half-sister to the top stamina influence Dynaformer, making her a close relative to Grade 1 winner War Flag, who was also campaigned by these connections. The only problem with War Cabinet is that every public handicapper seemingly likes this filly, so that 8-1 morning line is looking like wishful thinking in retrospect.
RACE 7: SILVERWAVE (#7)
This is yet another optional claiming race that could easily be mistaken for a graded stakes event. Chad Brown holds a strong hand as he sends out likely favorite Call Provision and Silverwave. The former runner has performed admirably in all of his 2018 starts. He did well to close for fourth in a paceless Elkhorn despite getting pinned down inside for the stretch run. He was not quite good enough in the Grade 1 Man O’ War but nevertheless gave a solid account of himself in finishing fourth. The only disappointment so far this year came last time when he failed to run down Highland Sky as the 6-5 favorite. This horse does have some hang in him, and that was on display last time. This distance is ideal, but I don’t feel that he’s necessarily more talented than his main rivals. Silverwave figures to go off at a slightly better price, and he is the one that I prefer. There’s no doubt that he’s underperformed in his three U.S. starts, considering his reputation as a Group 1 performer in Europe. That said, his most recent effort in the United Nations was a significant improvement on his prior two runs. Given the way the race played out, he had no chance. Rajiv Maragh was never able to get him over to the inside and he was forced to race without cover for his entire trip. This horse can get a little keen in his races, and he ended up making a premature move heading into the last of the three turns at Monmouth. That early bid, coupled with the ground loss, spelled defeat for this well-meant horse that day. This time, Javier Castellano climbs back aboard and he surely will be looking to work out a better trip.
RACE 8: BATTLE JOINED (#10)
I’m somewhat against the horses that are coming out of races at this level at Belmont. Conquest Tizfire is probably the best of those, but she’s had her chances to get it done recently, and I believe this is a subtly tougher spot, since there are some formidable new faces to consider. Chipolina won her debut over this course last year, but nothing has gone right since then. Her recent series of drills indicate that she may be rounding back into top form, but this barn has gone very cold since their hot streak at the start of the Belmont meet. I’ll use her, but the horse that I think has the best chance to win this race is Battle Joined. If this filly can repeat her maiden victory, she’s going to be a handful in this spot. The early pace that day was legitimately fast, as she drew off from the field while dueling with My Bronx Tail, who was actually the favorite in that race. Battle Joined put that filly away at the top of the stretch as My Bronx Tail ended up retreating to last, and gamely kicked on to hold off the closers. The 110 TimeformUS Speed Figure that she earned is one of the highest numbers in the field, and now she gets a positive rider switch to Irad Ortiz. She seems well-suited to this slight turnback in distance, and speed is dangerous over this course. At a big price, I’ll also throw in Romantic Babe, who has a right to step forward after getting buried inside in her return.
RACE 11: JESS I AM (#10)
The finale is a pretty wide-open affair. Team Colors is clearly the horse to beat, but he’s drawn a disadvantageous wide post position for this attempt at a repeat win at the level. I have no reason to doubt his current form, but it does feel like he’s going to have a tough time duplicating that success given that this appears to be a tougher assignment. I’m more skeptical of Hieroglyphics, whose form really tailed off over the winter. Monster Bea gets a needed drop in class, but he’s always at the mercy of the pace. I’ll use these runners, but the horse that interests me is Jess I Am. Brad Cox runners are always dangerous, and this horse really improved for the barn over the winter at Fair Grounds. Oddly, he only got one shot to race on turf despite that being the surface that he was apparently intended to run over on 4 occasions. He won that race, and his prior turf form for John Terranova was actually decent. Some may be concerned about his poor recent effort on dirt, but that came against a tough field and he was hindered by unwisely getting rated off a slow pace. This time, he figures to get sent to the lead from his outside post position, and I think he’s a top threat to wire the field.