by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona
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Race 1: 2 - 1 - 5 - 6
Race 2: 4 - 1 - 6 - 8
Race 3: 5 - 7 - 1A - 6
Race 4: 2 - 3 - 1 - 7
Race 5: 1 - 4 - 8 - 3
Race 6: 9 - 13 - 12 - 3
Race 7: 5 - 10 - 9 - 12
Race 8: 7 - 6 - 10 - 1
Race 9: 4 - 7 - 6 - 2
Race 10: 3 - 4 - 2 - 6
Race 11: 12 - 2 - 11 - 3
RACE 2: VOODOO SONG (#4)
Daddy's Home figures to be a heavy favorite in this race as he drops in class. He didn't do any serious running last time at Belmont, but he was facing a much tougher field, topped by next-out stakes winner Bricks and Mortar. If he can merely run back to his Gulfstream debut effort, he may just be too good for this group. However, there's another runner in this field that figures to offer better value. Voodoo Song was visually impressive when breaking his maiden on turf last fall at Aqueduct. He wasn't beating the strongest field that day, but he ran well considering that he was rank in the early going. When he found running room in the stretch, he exploded and won going away in a victory that was more dominant than the final margin suggests. Linda Rice, who takes over his training, is dropping him in for a tag, but this is probably the level at which he belongs.
RACE 6: BORN FOR A STORM (#9)
This race features a large and competitive field, but I think we're able to narrow it down to a few key contenders. The most likely winners are morning-line favorite Built to Suit, who looks formidable as he turns back to a more appropriate distance, and 16-length maiden winner Gucci Factor, who will attempt to repeat the lofty 122 TimeformUS Speed Figure that he earned last time. I'll use both, but the horse that I'm most interested in is Chad Brown's other horse, Born for a Storm. I was a fan of the way this horse developed at the Spa last summer, and thought he ran well in both of his local starts. When he was stepped up to face winners, he was also stretched out in distance, and I wonder if he just didn't want to go that far. He didn't run that badly in September of last year behind the talented Diversify, but he was lacking the late kick that he had displayed in earlier races. Chad Brown can certainly win off layoffs of this type.
RACE 7: CANADIAN FLYER (#5)
This is one of the more confusing races on the card. I respect the two best closers in the field, Vici and Partly Mocha, and think there are valid cases to be made for them. However, the Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring runners on or near the lead, which could work against them. While it's true that there are a number of speed horses in the race, I'm not sure that we should expect them all to go for the lead. Rayswarrior didn't show much speed in his lone turf start, and Spring to the Sky has a habit of breaking a step slowly. For that reason, I'm picking Canadian Flyer, who appears to be in reasonably good form right now. His runner-up finish at Keeneland two back was solid and he was just overmatched in the Jaipur last time. I think he can shake free of the other speeds early and hold off the closers late.
RACE 8: BROWSE (#7)
Chad Brown and Christophe Clement both have two runners in this race, and they have legitimate chances to take down this prize. I'll use all four in my wagers, but there's a longshot in this field that I have to key on. Browse deserves another chance on turf after a ridiculous trip in her grass debut at Belmont. Having shown speed in her dirt races, it would have been reasonable to expect her to be somewhat forwardly placed last time. However, she was inexplicably taken to the back of an 11-horse field and buried down inside. She actually had some run in the stretch, but Joel Rosario had trouble maneuvering her into the clear and she ended up getting steadied late. This one-mile distance should be fine for her and I'm hoping new rider John Velazquez uses her ample speed to control affairs on the front end. She's supposed to take to this surface as a half-sister to Grade 1-winning turfer Imagining.
RACE 9: FREE DROP BILLY (#4)
Direct Dial is clearly the horse to beat in this Sanford. He ran exceptionally well in the Tremont last month, dueling for the lead and putting away his early rivals before just getting run down by the late-running He Hate Me in the final furlong. The main track at Belmont Park appeared to be favoring outside paths that afternoon, so he might have not been on the best part of the racetrack. He's a horse I'll certainly use, but my top pick is Free Drop Billy. I just loved this Dale Romans trainee's debut, as he settled off the pace, sliced through between horses on the turn and drew off with authority late. The race didn't come up that fast, but he accomplished it the right way. Furthermore, Dale Romans typically improves his debut winners when they come back in their second starts. Over the past five years, he is a remarkable 8 for 20 (40 percent, $6.94 ROI) with horses that won their debuts making their second career starts in dirt races.