by David Aragona
Get the wagering strategy for this card in this year’s TimeformUS Saratoga Betting Strategies package, which includes PPs for each day of the meet, exclusive access to the daily Highlight Horse, multi-race ticket constructions, and additional analysis of every stakes race at the meet. More info ›
Race 1: 1 - 3 - 8 - 14
Race 2: 5 - 1 - 3 - 6
Race 3: 2 - 4 - 3 - 9
Race 4: 5 - 1 - 4 - 9
Race 5: 2 - 7 - 10 - 4
Race 6: 9 - 5 - 1 - 6
Race 7: 11 - 10 - 1 - 8
Race 8: 5 - 9 - 6 - 7
Race 9: 1 - 4 - 3 - 2
Race 10: 2 - 1 - 5 - 9
Race 11: 6 - 5 - 4 - 2
Race 12: 6 - 5 - 4 - 12
RACE 1: EL FENOMENO (#1)
Teachable Moment is likely to be a clear-cut favorite in this spot due in large part to the confusing nature of this race. His return from the layoff was solid enough, as he stayed on decently to be fourth against a tougher group than the field he meets here. However, that was going a mile and now he’s turning back to 6 furlongs. Chad Brown doesn’t often turn horses all the way back to 5 1/2 furlongs on the turf, so he’s had limited success with this move. This 3-year-old gelding has been a short price in all of his starts and he’s been a disappointment. I’m using him, but I want to look for better value. The other horses likely to attract support are all difficult to assess. There are some things to recommend about all of the first time starters drawn towards the middle of the field, but I’m not particularly confident in any of their chances. Hurricane Jake would be a major player if he were to draw in off the also-eligible list, but that seems unlikely. Given my reservations with the aforementioned runners, I want to take a shot with El Fenonemo in his turf debut. I had been waiting for this horse to get on turf since he has pedigree for it, but the main concern has been his ability. Therefore, I was encouraged by the race he ran in that off-the-turf spot last time, as he posted a vastly improved speed figure while gamely hanging on to be second at a price. Based on pedigree, he’s supposed to be even better on grass since he’s by sneaky turf influence Paynter out of a dam who has produced 3 turf winners, including 7-time turf winner Lori’s Store. The rail draw can be tricky at times, so I’m hoping he just blasts off under Luis Reyes like he did last time. The price should be generous on this outsider.
RACE 2: BOSSY BRIDE (#5)
Rapido Gatta may go off as the slight favorite in this unusually weak maiden special weight race. She was hampered at the start of her debut, placing her far back in the early going, but she launched a good middle move into contention before flattening out. She was far more professional last time, breaking sharply and chasing the pace before fading slightly at the end. There is very little early speed signed on in this spot, so she may find herself on the lead from this rail draw. I’m not enthusiastic about her chances, but I suppose she’s the horse to beat. I’m even less confident in the others that are likely to take money. Doll Collection is assured to take some money as a daughter of the champion Groupie Doll, but it’s unclear if she has much ability. Lexintonia also has a stellar pedigree, but it’s really more turf breeding than anything else. I’ll use them defensively, but I want to take a shot with Bossy Bride at a better price. This filly showed some real determination in her career debut, rallying with a rush after encountering trouble at the start. She then ran deceptively well in her 3yo return at Laurel, closing strongly in a race that was dominated up front by a winner who looked home free until this filly came charging. She didn’t respond well to more aggressive tactics last time when Kendrick Carmouche hustled her into contention early. She needs a slight speed figure boost, but she is dropping to face a slightly softer field of maidens this time and I think she might be able to do better with a more patient ride. Six furlong seems like the perfect distance and she should be a playable price.
RACE 4: KOWALSKI (#5)
The entry of Shoplifted and Soviet is expected to go off as the favored entity in this fascinating juvenile maiden event. The one with the more suitable pedigree for these conditions is clearly Shoplifted, who is by excellent debut sire Into Mischief out of a dam who is a half-sister to stakes-winning sprinter Fifth Avenue. This horse worked an eye-catching furlong in 10 1/5 seconds at the Fasig-Tipton March sale. That drill on July 7 was in company with Asmussen’s top 2-year-old Basin, so this colt is clearly well-regarded. You can’t necessarily say the same about his entrymate Soviet, who is also well-bred, but to be a turf router. His dam was an excellent turf runner and she is a half-sister to multiple graded stakes winner Rutherienne. I’m use this pair prominently, but horses with experience are always dangerous in these spots, so I want to lean in that direction. It’s pretty cool to see D. Wayne Lukas reunited with owner Peter Brant, for whom he trained some good horses in the 1980s, including Gulch and Stella Madrid. Kowalski debuted at Churchill Downs last month in a relatively slow race, but I thought he showed some promise given his trip. He was off slowly and lagged behind early before launching a wide move around the far turn. He was spun far out into the center of the track in the stretch and loomed briefly before flattening out in the late stages. That race features all blue color-coded pace figures in TimeformUS PPs, so Kowalski was against the flow of that event. Lukas almost never has horses cranked up to win first time out these days, so this colt figures to improve with that start under his belt.
RACE 5: FRONTIER MARKET (#2)
Emaraaty is going to attract plenty of support in his U. S. debut. His form in Great Britain was somewhat spotty, but he flashed ability when posting a 118 Timeform Rating in that Netbet Sport Handicap in May 2018. However, his final two performances of last year were well below par and now he resurfaces in this country. He’s bred to be a top runner as a son of top sire Dubawi and out of a dam who won the Group 1 Prix de l’Opera. He’s also a half-brother to a Group 1 winner and there’s further class in the second generation. Obviously, he could be any kind of he continues his development, but there are question marks. I prefer Chad Brown’s other runner Frontier Market. This horse had the look of a professional maiden through the middle of last year, but he really seemed to turn things around in the fall at Belmont. He beat a good field to break his maiden in September and then took another step forward in his first start against winners. Perhaps that first win clued him in to what he was supposed to be doing, since he displayed a turn of foot and willingness to run away from horses that we had not seen out of him in any of his prior starts. That race earned a 114 TimeformUS Speed Figure and a number of horses that finished behind him came back to run even faster in subsequent starts. Over 5 years, Chad Brown is 23 for 67 (34%, $2.22 ROI) with last-out winners coming off layoffs of 180 days or more on turf.
RACE 9: MITOLE (#1)
I don’t like to endorse heavy favorites, but I just can’t find any faults with Mitole. I tried taking a stand against this horse in the Metropolitan Handicap and he proved me wrong, overcoming a difficult pace situation and distance that may be too far for him. There had been some concerns that he might not be able to handle fast early paces or distances beyond 6 furlongs at the start of this year, but he’s since answered those questions. Some are going to make a lot of the fact that he drew the rail in this Vanderbilt, but I’ll be surprised if something like that gets this horse beat. According to the Pace Projector, he’s every bit as fast as Strike Power in the early going, and Ricardo Santana would be wise to just flaunt his speed from the start. Mitole is good enough to outduel Strike Power and hold off the closers. His last two TimeformUS Speed Figures of 129 and 131 are simply faster than any other sprinter in the country is capable of running right now, and he will win this race if he merely maintains his form. His two main rivals are Imperial Hint and Firenze Fire and they both have some questions to answer. The former has been off form since the Breeders’ Cup last year. He did show some signs of life in the Dubai Golden Shaheen last time, but it’s difficult to know what to make of that race in relation to this one. Furthermore, he’s only had a limited amount of time to prepare for this return from the layoff. He’d be a mildly surprising upsetter. The bigger danger may be Firenze Fire, who should sit a good trip in behind the early speed. He would be dangerous if he repeats his performance in the Runhappy, but he was cranked up to go that day and defeating a much weaker field. The one-mile distance of the Met was not supposed to be a problem for him and he was unable to finish off the race that day. He may have been hampered by racing off the inside for the last quarter mile, but I still haven’t seen conclusive evidence that he’s quite as good as the elite sprinters.
RACE 10: SADLER’S JOY (#2)
This Bowling Green is as difficult a handicapping puzzle as you’ll come across. Beyond likely champion Bricks and Mortar this older turf male division is wide open and this race is illustrative of that. The slight favorite may be Channel Maker, who attempts to defend his title in this race after dead-heating for the victory with Glorious Empire last season. He’s really found his niche racing at distances between 10 and 12 furlongs, and Joel Rosario seems to have a knack for getting the best out of him. His form looked like it might be tailing off earlier in the year, but he got things back on track in the Man O’ War and ran a respectable race behind “Bricks” in the Manhattan. I’m using him prominently, but I’m reluctant to endorse a favorite in a race that is this contentious. Arklow nearly ran down Channel Maker in that Man O’ War. Florent Geroux gave him a nearly perfect ride that day and was just a little unlucky to run out of ground at the end. Arklow subsequently stretched out to 2 miles in the Belmont Gold Cup and ran a winning race, rallying up the rail for second while perhaps unable to see Amade charging down the center of the course. He drew a great post position for this race and is clearly in career form. I’m using him prominently, but he also is going to attract support. One horse that may get somewhat overlooked is the returning Sadler’s Joy. While this field is highly competitive, I don’t think it’s the most formidable group we’ve ever seen. Sadler’s Joy was right near the top of this division throughout most of last year, and I see no reason why can’t reassert himself off the long layoff. This horse has run well fresh in the past and Albertrani actually has solid stats off layoffs like this. He was hindered by soft courses and unfavorable pace setups late last year, which makes his form look worse than it actually is. If he’s ready to fire off the break, he can beat these. At a big price, I also want to use Red Knight underneath. This horse did not get the right trip in the Belmont Gold Cup last time when making a premature move past the stands the first time. He then raced wide without cover for the last mile of the race and still never totally quit. This horse has a lot of fight in him and has ridden to big challenges in the past.
RACE 11: WAR OF WILL (#6)
The Jim Dandy essentially boils down to the three main players. The expected favorite is Tacitus, who many concede was probably best when second in the Belmont Stakes last time. It’s indisputable that the inside paths were preferable at Belmont Park on that Saturday, and Tacitus was racing outside, losing ground for his entire trip. However, it’s still unclear how strong of a race the Belmont was, and the fact remains that Tacitus has never earned a speed figure that suggests he’s necessarily better than many of the other top 3-year-olds in this crop. I’m using him prominently, but he still has some things to prove as the likely favorite. Global Campaign is one that many will find appealing to his apparent pace advantage. The Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring horses on or near the lead, and he figures to be setting the pace. He ran very well in the Peter Pan, and was flattered by Sir Winston’s Belmont performance. However, he still must prove that he’s as effective around two turns while facing two of the best 3-year-olds in the country. I won’t be surprised if he’s up to the challenge, but he’s unlikely to offer value. I’ve landed on Preakness winner War of Will. I know many are unwilling to give this horse too much credit for his Preakness win against a weak field, but he still earned the highest TimeformUS Speed Figure of any horse in this race (123) that day. He had legitimate excuses in both the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes, and he may really benefit from the 7-week layoff coming into this Jim Dandy. His workout on July 13 was awesome and it seems like he’s back and ready to fire a top effort.