by David Aragona
Now Available: TimeformUS Saratoga PPs and Betting Strategies
Gain access to TimeformUS PPs for all 40 days of the Saratoga meet, plus betting strategies – recommended wagers for each of David Aragona's daily Top Plays, fully constructed multi-race tickets including daily Pick-4s and Pick-5s, and additional strategic information around playing every card. You will also receive exclusive access to David's Highlight Horses, as well as opinions on all stakes races. Learn more ›
Race 1: 6 - 11 - 12 - 5
Race 2: 1 - 7 - 2 - 8
Race 3: 5 - 7 - 1 - 3
Race 4: 7 - 4 - 1/1A - 2
Race 5: 3 - 10 - 5 - 11 - 8
Race 6: 1 - 14 - 5 - 7
Race 7: 1 - 3 - 2 - 5
Race 8: 4 - 3 - 1 - 6
Race 9: 6 - 7 - 9 - 2
Race 10: 2 - 5 - 4 - 1
Race 11: 6 - 10 - 7 - 4
RACE 7: BARRY LEE (#1)
This Amsterdam drew a compact but competitive field of seven, and the main players are all exiting the Woody Stephens. Engage is likely to go favored after closing to be second that day. Unlike most of the alternatives in this race, he’s the picture of consistency, having never finished worse than second in six career starts. While I’m not denying that he ran well last time, I think it’s indisputable that both Promises Fulfilled ran a better race, considering the pace dynamics. The leaders were absolutely flying through the early stages of that race, as the red color-coded, astronomically high TimeformUS Pace Ratings indicate. The 127 TimeformUS Speed Figure earned by Promises Fulfilled is six points higher than the number earned by Engage despite the fact that he finished more than three lengths behind that foe. I think Promises Fulfilled is dangerous, but he has to deal Old Time Revival up front. Furthermore, Strike Power doesn’t want to be far off it in the early going, so it’s hard to envision the pace being slow. I’m going out on a limb here and taking a shot with Barry Lee. This race sets up so well for a horse who can sit just off the pace, and I think Barry Lee could be that beneficiary. Even though he was soundly defeated in his two starts at Churchill Downs this year, he actually ran deceptively well on both occasions. He was against a slow pace two back while racing wide, and then last time, he rushed up to contest a legitimate pace after breaking slowly. Furthermore, both of those efforts came against tougher fields of older horses. I love the rider switch to Joel Rosario, who is an expert at getting horses like this to relax early.
RACE 9: SADLER’S JOY (#6)
I’m interested in a few of the runners coming out of the Manhattan. That race featured a large field in which a few horses had difficult trips. While longshots like Channel Maker and Manitoulin were compromised by traffic and ground loss, I firmly believe that the horse who ran the best race was Sadler’s Joy. The early pace of the Manhattan was moderate, but they really picked up the tempo heading into the far turn, and that was the point at which Javier Castellano decided to move. According to Trakus, Sadler’s Joy ran that penultimate quarter-mile around the far turn in 22.30 seconds, which is remarkable considering that he sustained that bid into the lane and almost won. Castellano has now ridden this horse in two major stakes races, and he’s moved a bit too soon on both occasions, so I imagine that he’s learned from those experiences. When he’s at his best, Sadler’s Joy is the most talented runner in this race, and he clearly loves Saratoga.
RACE 10: TENFOLD (#2)
The two favorites in this race both exit the Belmont Stakes. Vino Rosso got the closest to eventual Triple Crown winner Justify, as he took a run at him around the far turn and just couldn’t quite sustain that bid through the stretch. All things considered, I thought Vino Rosso had every chance that day and was just a little disappointing, since he really figured to appreciate that distance. He’s not a horse with much tactical speed, so he’s probably going to be rallying from the back of this 5-horse field. If he repeats his Wood Memorial, he’s going to be a tough customer, but I actually prefer Tenfold this time. While Vino Rosso enjoyed a clear, unencumbered run around the far turn, Tenfold had some subtle trouble. He tried to follow other horses’ moves while racing between rivals, but ended up having to alter course around a tiring Restoring Hope, losing momentum at a point in the race where it was too late to recover. He figures to appreciate this turnback to 1 1/8 miles and I think he possesses more tactical speed that Vino Rosso. I’m using him a bit more prominently in multi-race wagers. Among the others, I do think Sporting Chance has an outside shot at getting into the exacta. This horse finally adds blinkers, an equipment change that he’s probably needed for a while. When he’s right, he has serious talent, but this distance may be just out of his ideal range.
RACE 11: REVERSETHEDECISION (#6) / CLOAK OF SECRECY (#10)
There are a number of intriguing options in this full field of 3-year-old fillies. However, I ultimately just could not take a strong stance against the likely favorite, Reversethedecision. If you’ve been following this filly’s career closely, it’s apparent that she’s bound for graded stakes company, and this is just a stepping stone along that path. She made a remarkable late run from well back in the pack in her debut, somehow getting up for third despite racing greenly. She then made a dazzling late burst to win break her maiden at Aqueduct, beating a quality field in the process. Her stakes debut at Monmouth last time did not quite go according to plan, as she drew the far outside post position and never had an opportunity to save any ground. She was clearly best on that occasion, and it’s not as if losing to dual stakes-winner Dark Artist is some disgrace. Now she lands in the right kind of spot, and this 9 furlong distance figures to be right up her alley. She is far and away the most likely winner. However, she is a closer in a large field and anything can happen. The primary alternative that many will backup with is Ferdinanda and I do think this stakes-placed filly deserves respect. However, there are a couple of longshots that interest me. Cloak of Secrecy is the one that I want to support most enthusiastically, using her as my main backup to the favorite. While it took Cloak of Secrecy a few tries to break through, she has been improving quickly in her recent starts. I love the way she finished last time at Churchill Downs going today’s distance, and that turf course appeared to have some give to it despite being rated firm. Over the past five years, Brendan Walsh is 5 for 21 (24 percent, $3.02 ROI) with horses coming off maiden wins on the turf. The other filly that I want to use, primarily underneath, is Fairy Link. This one probably isn’t good enough to win, but she got a silly ride last time, as she was shuffled back midway through the race. She drew a good post position this time, and I think she can outrun her odds.