by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona
Now Available: Exclusive Saratoga betting strategies and unlimited TimeformUS PPs for the Saratoga meet!
On every Friday through Sunday at the Saratoga meet, get exclusive access to betting tickets for David Aragona’s Top Plays, including multi-race bet constructions and other exotic tickets. Also get exclusive access to David's Highlight Horses, as well as opinions on all stakes races. Learn more
Race 1: 3 - 5 - 4 - 2
Race 2: 7 - 2 - 6 - 8
Race 3: 1 - 3 - 7 - 6
Race 4: 1 - 7 - 9 - 5
Race 5: 3 - 2 - 6 - 5
Race 6: 4 - 5 - 7 - 2
Race 7: 8 - 7 - 5 - 2
Race 8: 4 - 5 - 8 - 3
Race 9: 4 - 7 - 1 - 6
Race 10: 2 - 3 - 1 - 5
Race 11: 2 - 4 - 8 - 3
RACE 2: CAPITAINE (#7) / SURPRISE TWIST (#2)
Pagliacci and Hieroglyphics come out of a decent optional-claiming race in which they finished behind stakes-bound Snap Decision. However, the winner was much the best that day as these two runners shared the lead through slow early fractions (indicated by blue color-coding in the PPs). I prefer two runners coming from different directions. One horse I want to use is Surprise Twist. I know that one might expect him to have been facing weaker fields in Maryland, but he actually beat a decent group of runners last time, showing good acceleration as he came through inside. He’s drawn well for this race and gets a positive rider switch to Javier Castellano. The Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, which figures to aid his late kick. My top selection is Capitaine, who makes his turf debut in this race. This Mark Hennig trainee had shown potential early in his career, but things seemed to go awry at Gulfstream Park this winter. I like this surface switch for him given that he’s by decent turf sire Tapit and out of a turf-winning dam who is a full sister to multiple turf graded stakes winner Justenuffhumor. The fact that he ran his best race on a sealed track gives me hope that he’ll appreciate the move to grass.
RACE 5: MO CASH (#3)
Coal Front gets tested for class here. His last win was validated by the subsequent performance of runner-up Patternrecognition, who came back to run a similar speed figure. However, he’s going to face early pace pressure from Mo Cash and Aquamarine, and I think Mo Cash has a chance to pull off the upset. Mo Cash put in a strong effort against a salty group of older horses two back at Gulfstream, and then was a game second to the Three Rules last time. He should appreciate the slight cutback in distance, and he’s likely to go off at a significantly larger price than Coal Front despite the fact that he’s run about as fast.
RACE 6: TASIT (#4)
This is an extremely competitive race where a number of horses have a legitimate chance to win. The horse to beat is probably Revved Up, who has been pace-compromised in two straight starts at Belmont. He’s been dropping too far back in the early portions of his recent races, so I like the rider switch to Jose Ortiz, who was able to get him closer to the pace when he rode him last year. However, he’s unlikely to offer much value, and I prefer a longshot. Tasit looks too slow at first glance, but he’s had excuses in recent starts. He dropped too far back in his May 17 race, when Fox Rules wired a field on the front end. Then last time he was far too aggressive in the early going, tugging Joel Rosario to the lead prematurely. Those early antics obviously detracted from his finish that day. He’s been at his best when he can rally from farther back in the pack, and Julien Leparoux should be able to get him covered up from this inside post position. This Michael Matz colt showed potential as a 3-year-old, and I don’t think we’ve seen the best of him this year.
RACE 9: SADLER’S JOY (#4)
The two main players in this race are the pair coming out of the Grade 1 Manhattan. Ascend got the better of Sadler’s Joy that day, and I don’t deny that Ascend ran the best race. He was not negatively affected by the more aggressive tactics employed by Jose Ortiz, as he still produced his explosive finish from a close range. However, now he needs to stretch out another furlong, and I think the extra distance should aid his main rival Sadler’s Joy. He’s handled the three turns of this race before, and has actually run deceptively well in his last two starts. He was stuck in traffic in upper stretch two back and then actually put in the fastest final quarter-mile when closing best of all late in the Manhattan. If Javier Castellano can keep him within striking range, I think he can turn the tables here.
RACE 10: CLOUD COMPUTING (#2)
This Jim Dandy features the anticipated rematch between Kentucky Derby winner Always Dreaming and Preakness winner Cloud Computing. While most regard this as a two-horse race, I’m of the opinion that Cloud Computing is the more talented runner and will assert his superiority on Saturday afternoon. Always Dreaming was racing along the best part of the track, down on the rail, when he won the Derby. He tailed off in his training after that race and I’m a bit skeptical that Todd Pletcher can get him back to top form. Cloud Computing, on the other hand, is lightly raced, has improved with distance, and possesses a versatile running style, so that he should be unaffected by the presence of the speedy Pavel. I’ll use him over Always Dreaming, as well as improving Giuseppe the Great, who could get ignored in the wagering for Nick Zito.