by David Aragona
 

PICKS

 
Race 1:   5 - 7 - 6 - 2
Race 2:   8 - 9 - 4 - 1
Race 3:   4 - 8 - 1 - 9
Race 4:   9 - 1 - 4 - 5
Race 5:   7 - 5 - 1 - 4
Race 6:   9 - 3 - 11 - 2 - 8
Race 7:   4 - 5 - 6 - 3
Race 8:   7 - 10 - 4 - 8
Race 9:   1 - 3 - 2 - 9
Race 10:   4 - 7 - 5 - 6
Race 11:   7 - 10 - 9 - 12
Race 12:   3 - 5 - 8 - 6

TOP PLAYS

 
RACE 2: NATURAL ORDER (#8)
You have to deal with a couple of troublesome dropdowns when handicapping this race. The one that I find to be more trustworthy is Platinum Prince, who ran just 2 1/2 months ago at Churchill Downs. Making his first start in more than 5 months, he got a little rank traveling down the backstretch and had to steady hard entering the far turn. From there, he got caught behind horses in the lane and could never muster up a rally. He obviously had races going back to last year that would crush this field, but Robertino Diodoro is being realistic off the claim, as he probably is no longer capable of performing at that level. Zoot Suit is harder for me to like. This is his first race since last October after making just a single start following the claim by Jeremiah Englehart. That was on dirt, and he faded badly after showing brief speed. This drop off the break feels more suspicious, and he’s going to have to deal with other speed types up front. I’m taking a shot against these horses with Natural Order. I generally don’t like turnbacks on the turf, but this horse has been running at distances that are just way beyond his capabilities in two of his last 3 starts. This horse’s maximum distance is a mile and a sixteenth, but he’s shown that he’s also capable of sprinting. Turning all the way back to 5 1/2 furlongs may be a bit drastic, but he’s run well doing this in the past at Saratoga. He’s likely to get some pace to close into in this spot, and his race two back indicates that he’s certainly still talented enough to win at this level.
 

RACE 4: MONSTER BEA (#9)
Night Prowler figures to attract support for Chad Brown as he drops in for the tag. It’s been a long time since this gelding won a race, but he’s been facing much tougher company in the majority of his starts since that victory. I wasn’t thrilled with his return from the layoff in July, but he has a right to move forward off that performance. He’s one to use, but he doesn’t necessarily scare me. Breaking the Rules interests me as he makes his initial turf start. This horse definitely has the pedigree to transition to turf, as a son of War Front out of a Phipps-bred female family that is full of turf influences. He’s shown some ability on dirt, but we’ve seen plenty of homebreds for this barn show their true potential once switched to the lawn. The only drawback with him is a potential lack of value. The two horses exiting the 11th race on July 21 both interest me. Team Colors got a great ride from Manny Franco that day, as he was able to save ground from the outside post position and rally up the inside in the stretch. Monster Bea was not so lucky, as he had to go 4-wide when making his run around the far turn and never had a serious chance to get involved late in a race that mostly held together up front. Monster Bea is a horse that has always shown ability, but he got stuck in a rut for his previous connections, as his form seemed to tail off. The good news is that there aren’t any alarming layoffs to suggest he’s unsound – it just seems that he might have lost interest. Often these types of runners can be rejuvenated by a barn change, and Carlos Martin and Matthew Schera have made some shrewd claims over the past few years. Monster Bea figures to get some pace to close into this time with a few key speeds signed on, and the addition of blinkers could get him involved a bit earlier.
 

RACE 5: PLAINSMAN (#7)
Weather Wiz and Uncle Sigh exit the same race at this level on Aug. 3. Uncle Sigh finished a neck ahead of Weather Wiz at the wire, but I thought the former runner put in the better effort after being hustled out to the lead from the outside post position. Weather Wiz clearly has a ton of talent when he’s in form, but he is going to have to deal with other speeds in here. The Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, which could hinder his chances. I’m using him, but there are a couple of 3-year-olds to consider. The one that I don’t particularly like is Wooderson. He ran a competitive speed figure last time, but that race featured a very slow pace, which he was able to exploit. I think this is a big step up in class and he won’t get that same stalking trip this time. The one that I want to bet is Plainsman. Running for his prior trainer William Van Meter, he met some tough company over the winter, finishing behind Tenfold in an allowance race before tackling the Arkansas Derby. That was obviously too much too soon for this colt, but he’s since been given some time to develop. His two races since the layoff are both encouraging, mostly because I think a flat mile may be too short for him. I thought he stayed on well last time, in his first start with Lasix, as he determinedly chased the older even-money favorite to the wire. This time, Joel Rosario can place him in mid-pack, farther off what figures to be an honest pace, and that should make him tough to hold off in the lane.
 

RACE 7: ROCKING THE BOAT (#4)
I don’t fully trust either of the favorites in this race. Long Haul Bay seems like the horse to beat, since I guess you’re supposed to excuse his poor effort in the mud last time. The only problem with that is that he ran just fine over a sloppy track at Pimlico in May, so it’s not as if he’s established that he hates wet going. This horse has had some issues in his career, but he’s proven that he possesses a great deal of talent when he’s right. I would use him defensively, but I’m not totally convinced that we’re going to see one of his good efforts this time. Phi Beta Express gamely clung to winner Patternrecognition in the late stages of that Aug. 11 race, and he’s a top contender off that effort. However, now he has to deal with the early speed of Devils Halo and possibly even Mr. Brix, so I don’t think he’s going to get a free ride on the front end. I’m using these two, but the horse that I want to bet is Rocking the Boat. This horse ran some really nice races at Oaklawn Park over the winter, as he closed willingly behind the talented Sutton Impact going a sprint distance in February before finishing a good third at a big price in the Razorback. They have tried to stretch him out a few times, but I think he’s best going sprint distances. That’s certainly what he’s bred to do, as his dam was an accomplished sprinter during her racing career. His last start at Churchill Downs may seems slightly disappointing at first glance, but he was hindered by a slow pace that day. He should get a fair tempo ahead of him here, and I think he’ll be charging in the lane as he makes his first start for the Dale Romans barn.
 

RACE 9: UP THE ANTE (#1)
Raging Bull has to be considered the horse to beat in this Saranac off his visually impressive score in the Hall of Fame last time. That race featured an honest early pace, but Raging Bull was still far back at the top of the stretch, seemingly with too much ground left to make up. However, Joel Rosario timed it perfectly as this horse kicked it into another gear for the final eighth of a mile, powering past Maraud at the wire. This French-bred colt clearly has a ton of ability, and I believe he is the deserving favorite in this race. However, this is the toughest test of his career, and it’s unclear if he’ll be better stretching out to 9 furlongs. Furthermore, the lack of pace in this race could work against him again. While Raging Bull may be the more talented horse, I prefer Up the Ante today. This Christophe Clement trainee figures to have everything go his way for the rematch with the favorite. He’s drawn perfectly down inside, which should allow him to exploit his early pace advantage. Horses such as Golden Brown and Sand Dancer have some speed, but neither is likely to seriously challenge Up the Ante for the front. When this chestnut son of Smart Strike gets into a rhythm, as he did in his two turf starts at Belmont, he is capable of producing a devastating late kick. Even Raging Bull, who can finish with a flourish, was unable to make a dent in the latest stages of the Manila. There is no rain in the forecast for the two days leading up to Saturday and being on the lead down inside can be a huge advantage in turf races at the end of the meet.
 

RACE 10: CATHERINETHEGREAT (#4)
This Spinaway drew a fantastic field for a summer 2-year-old stakes, and the quality is bolstered by the presence Chasing Yesterday, who ships in for trainer Bob Baffert. This highly regarded half-sister to Triple Crown winner American Pharoah was bet down to 3-10 favoritism in her debut. She absolutely dominated a field of Del Mar maidens in fast time, earning a field-best 112 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Based on that performance, and given the stellar recent record of the Bob Baffert / Mike Smith combination in New York, she’s likely to go off as the favorite in this race. I’m using her, but there are some talented local fillies to consider, led by Schuylerville winner Catherinethegreat. I was thoroughly impressed by this filly’s win on opening day, as she blasted out of the gate from the inside post position, fended off all challenges, and strongly kicked for home in the stretch. The track was playing pretty quickly, but she stopped the clock in an impressive final time and earned a respectable 109 TimeformUS Speed Figure, elevated due to the fast early pace. She’s one of the most experienced members of the field, which counts for a lot in a race like this, and the game plan figures to be much the same this time. Despite the deep field, I’m not sure that anyone is quite as fast as this filly early. The 7 furlongs is a question mark, but she’s bred to handle more ground and I think she’s a major threat to take down her second stakes. I would also use Nonna Madeline, who was hindered by a poor start in the Schuylerville. She clearly has talent, but she’ll be up against it if she breaks poorly again.
 

RACE 11: KURILOV (#7)
There are some familiar names in this Woodward field, but most are trying to rekindle their careers following lulls or layoffs. Gunnevera may go favored, as he comes into this prestigious event with one of the most convincing résumés. If he runs back to his effort in last year’s Travers, he’s a top threat to win this race. He’s coming into his Saratoga return in similar fashion, as he also used a softer Gulfstream prep off a layoff prior to coming here last year. While he clearly has talent, the pace of this race could be a major problem for him. He’s a one-run deep closer, and he finds himself in a mostly paceless race. The Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring horses on or near the lead, but most of the potential early leaders are drawn in outside post positions, a distinct disadvantage at this distance. That combination of factors makes it anyone’s guess as to who makes the front in here. Seeking the Soul ran nearly as well as Gunnevera in the Pegasus World Cup after winning the Clark last year. He comes into this race in similar fashion, off a prep against lesser company at Indiana Downs, and appears poised to have a strong second half of the season. However, he’s yet another closer in this field who will have to work out a trip from off the pace. I’m interested in some horses with more tactical speed. One of those is Sunny Ridge, who gets tested for class. He’s in good form, but it will be hard for him to get over from post 12. My top pick is Kurilov. At first glance, he doesn’t appear to be good enough to win this race, but I think he’s run better than it seems in his dirt starts. That was especially true last time, when he moved to the lead too soon in the Alydar before drifting down to a dead rail for the final quarter mile. I believe dirt is his preferred surface and he has the tactical speed to get the jump on the aforementioned closers.
 

RACE 12: ONTHEMOONAGAIN (#3)
Santa Monica is a formidable favorite in this spot off her visually impressive score in the Dance Smartly at Woodbine. She unleashed an eye-catching burst of speed once steered into the clear by Jose Ortiz, easily overhauling most of the field before tackling her stablemate Inflexibility in the final eighth of a mile. It briefly appeared as if Inflexibility would put up a fight, but Santa Monica asserted her superiority and won with something in reserve. The stretch-out to 12 furlongs should only help her, as she was a Group 3 winner over this distance in Ireland and she won her U.S. debut going this trip. She just hasn’t run a bad race in this country, as she even put forth a strong late rally two back when she was hindered by a slow pace. I would not recommend taking a strong stance against her, but I do think her stablemate Onthemoonagain may be a viable alternative. Everyone saw the trouble that she had in that Aug. 2 allowance race, as Javier Castellano made the controversial decision to try to come up the rail on a heavy favorite. It clearly didn’t work out as she had nowhere to come and had to steady a couple of times before backing out of there. Despite that disappointing result, she at least got in her prep race. Now Chad Brown is stretching her out in distance, which is probably going to help her. Racing in France, she was best over 10 furlongs, so the 1 3/8 miles of this race over an American course should not be an issue. This filly hinted at having serious talent in some of her races as a 3-year-old and I’m pretty sure that we didn’t see the best version of her last time. Since that race, she has been working very strongly in the mornings, and I think she’s a serious threat to pull off the minor upset.