by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona
Now Available: Exclusive Saratoga betting strategies and unlimited TimeformUS PPs for the Saratoga meet!
On every Friday through Sunday at the Saratoga meet, get exclusive access to betting tickets for David Aragona’s Top Plays, including multi-race bet constructions and other exotic tickets. Also get exclusive access to David's Highlight Horses, as well as opinions on all stakes races. Learn more
Race 1: 9 - 1 - 7 - 6
Race 2: 2 - 6 - 10 - 4
Race 3: 9 - 3 - 6 - 7
Race 4: 7 - 5 - 11 - 8
Race 5: 2 - 3 - 5 - 8
Race 6: 5 - 9 - 2 - 1
Race 7: 6 - 1/1A - 4 - 9
Race 8: 6 - 5 - 4 - 3
Race 9: 1 - 4 - 9 - 2
Race 10: 1 - 3 - 4 - 5
Race 11: 2 - 1 - 3 - 4
Race 12: 4 - 5 - 7 - 8
RACE 1: BORSA VENTO (#9)
I suppose Driven by Thunder is the horse to beat, but I'm never a big fan of these dropdowns for trainer Todd Pletcher. His one strong dirt race came at Gulfstream Park over the winter, and he hasn't gotten back to that effort since. I'm trying to beat him with Borso Vento, who tries to make it two in a row after winning his maiden here a few weeks ago. The Steve Asmussen barn has really picked things up in the past few weeks, and this horse actually beat a decent field to win in reasonably fast time. Furthermore, he was claimed off Nick Zito, and horses getting claimed away from that barn are 11 for 41 (27 percent, $2.19 ROI) over the past five years.
RACE 3: FROSTY GAL (#9)
I respect likely favorite Bluegrass Jamboree, who has run well in both starts against winners. She has good tactical speed and should work out another fine trip, but I just don’t see her offering much value. Quick on the Draw, earned a competitive speed figure last time when she was clearly well-meant for H. James Bond. However, that win came against much weaker company and she may have to improve on that effort as she steps up in class. I’ll use both, but my top selection is Frosty Gal. I know that there isn’t much pace in this field and Frosty Gal is a closer, but she’s drawn well on the outside and can work her way up into mid-pack early. This filly showed some potential as a two-year-old, and really ran well in her three-year-old debut back in April. She hasn’t been on a fast dirt track since then, so I’m willing to be forgiving of those last two races. She gets a positive rider switch to Manny Franco in this race, and Barclay Tagg has quietly been having a very successful Saratoga meet.
RACE 5: BERKS COUNTY (#2)
Funtastic got a perfect trip to win last time in his turf debut, as he found a seam down inside in the stretch. Let's Get Loud won in more dominant fashion, but he did so against a vastly inferior group of maiden claimers. I'll use both of these Chad Brown runners, but I think this is a spot where we can get a little more creative. The runner who interests me most from a value standpoint is Berks County. I know that this horse needs to improve, but he's run better than it seems in both races this year. He actually did well to hang around until late in the James Murphy Stakes despite chasing a fast pace. Then last time, he had no chance over a boggy turf course that he clearly didn't handle. I like that he's returning in an ambitious spot, and he can use his tactical speed and inside draw to work out a ground-saving trip.
RACE 8: THAIS (#6)
This is basically a two-horse race between Browse and Thais. The former runner is obviously the horse to beat off her strong effort here on July 22. That day, she was setting a strong early pace for the distance and held on well to be second in a race that collapsed late. She's arguably facing a softer field here, with the lone exception of her main rival from the Chad Brown barn. Thais makes her U.S. debut, and Brown has fantastic numbers in this situation. Over the past five years, he is 5 for 10 (50 percent, $3.95 ROI) with foreign shippers in turf routes at Saratoga. This filly kept very good company in France, and she showed good tactical speed in those races, which should benefit her going this tricky one-mile distance on the inner course.
RACE 9: MR HAVERCAMP (#1)
Make no mistake: Bricks and Mortar is clearly the horse to beat in the Saranac. He has done absolutely nothing wrong in his four career starts and just seems to find a way to win. He’s stretching out to nine furlongs this time, but that seems like a minor obstacle for this versatile colt. I think he has the upper hand over those coming out of the Hall of Fame Stakes, but he faces an intriguing new face in Woodbine shipper Mr Havercamp. I'm usually not one to get caught up in the hype around lightly raced horses, but I get the sense that this gelding might be very special. Rarely will you see a horse dominate a turf race like he did that group of allowance runners three weeks ago. This is a huge step up in class, but I have to think these connections are shipping to Saratoga because they think they have a real chance. Furthermore, the fact that they’re running back on such short rest seems like a positive. Over the past five years, Catherine Day Phillips is 6 for 20 (30 percent, $2.73 ROI) with horses coming off wins and running back in 15 to 25 days. Mr Havercamp is drawn perfectly down on the rail and should work out a great stalking trip.
RACE 10: SEPARATIONOFPOWERS (#1)
Pure Silver is a deserving morning-line favorite off her dominant win in the Adirondack. She’s improved her speed figures in each career start and would be awfully formidable here if she were take another step forward. However, the Adirondack was run on a card that was strongly favoring horses that showed speed and raced down along the rail. (The bias is indicated by the red colored Race Rating box in the PPs.) Today, I strongly prefer Separationofpowers, who was dazzling in her debut at the beginning of the meet. She wasn’t facing much that day, but she won in dominant fashion in fast time. I don’t think she necessarily needs the lead and I doubt seven furlongs will be an issue.
RACE 12: WAR FLAG (#4)
While I’m generally not a big fan of War Front’s progeny stretching out to marathon distances, I think the added ground may really suit his daughter War Flag. There is a ton of stamina on the female side of her pedigree, since her dam is a half-sister to Dynaformer. She nearly won going 10 furlongs in France and has shown no signs of stopping in her races. She’s run well in both of her US starts at Monmouth, but she’s the kind of filly that takes a while to wind up and reach her top speed. This stretch-out should allow her to sit closer to the early pace and she gets a rider upgrade to Jose Ortiz. Over the past five years, Shug McGaughey is 14 for 61 (23%, $2.04 ROI) in turf stakes races at 10 furlongs or farther. I’ll use her with the three-year-old, Grateful, who ran well after a poor start last time, and may play out as the controlling speed this time, as well as Sarandia, who gets some class relief after flattening out at the end of the Beverly D.