by David Aragona
 

Get the wagering strategy for this card in this year’s TimeformUS Saratoga Betting Strategies package, which includes PPs for each day of the meet, exclusive access to the daily Highlight Horse, multi-race ticket constructions, and additional analysis of every stakes race at the meet. More info ›

PICKS

 
Race 1:   2 - 4 - 6 - 5
Race 2:   1A - 8 - 2 - 5
Race 3:   1 - 7 - 4 - 2
Race 4:   4 - 3 - 7 - 8
Race 5:   8 - 3 - 6 - 2
Race 6:   3 - 10 - 6 - 7
Race 7:   6 - 1 - 3 - 8
Race 8:   2 - 3 - 6 - 1
Race 9:   3 - 10 - 2 - 5
Race 10:   7 - 2 - 8 - 4

PLAYS

 
RACE 1: ONE EYED JACK (#2)
Chad Brown has the two major players in this race, though one is likely to be a much shorter price. Expected favorite Majority Rules showed some promise in his debut, closing well going a one-turn mile at Belmont. He was ridden far more aggressively last time out, as Castellano attempted to take advantage of a paceless situation by going to the front. He ran an excellent race that day, turning back multiple challenges, but couldn't fend off the very impressive winner Scars Are Cool. He obviously handles the distance, and should benefit from a more patient ride this time with some other potential speeds drawn to his inside. I don’t really have any knocks against him, but I do think his stablemate can offer up a genuine challenge. One Eyed Jack stretches out off an encouraging debut and is bred to handle added ground. Uncle Mo is as versatile a sire as is currently standing, and his dam (4 for 16, $96K) is a rare horse who was about equally proficient on all 3 surfaces (dirt, turf, and synthetic). The dam is a full sister to Doctor Mounty (8 for 29, $499K), a multiple G3 winner on turf, and Dabster (5 for 13, $347K), who won or placed in dirt stakes at distances ranging from a mile to 1 3/4 miles. I liked the way this colt gamely chased home the top two finishers last time through a very fast final quarter. He was compromised by a very slow pace (indicated by blue color-coded pace figures) and did well to hold his ground though the stretch.
 

RACE 3: SLIP SLIDING AWAY (#1)
If she draws into this race, Sharing is likely to be the favorite. She was closing well at the end of her debut, but it should be noted that the race fell apart in the final sixteenth as longtime leader Sequin just ran out of gas. Despite being a daughter of Speightstown, this filly is bred to stretch out, since her dam was a winner of the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf going 1 3/8 miles. However, Graham Motion has very poor numbers with this move. Over the past 5 years, he is 3 for 52 (6%, $0.51 ROI) with second-time starting maidens going from sprints to routes on turf. I actually prefer the horse who has already run this distance on the grass, Morning Gold. She benefited from racing up close to a very slow pace last time, but she still finished up strongly, drawing nearly 5 lengths clear of the rest of the field while finishing second to the talented Sweet Melania. I respect these runners, but there are a couple of first time starters that interest me. The more obvious one is Windfall Profit, who debuts for Shug McGaughey and has Joel Rosario named. This daughter of Malibu Moon is out of a multiple Grade 3 winner on turf who has produced this filly’s half-brother Profiteer, a solid turf runner. The grey homebred looked to have some run to her in that drill on July 19 when she clearly outworked the older maiden Keepme in Thegame. I’m using her, but my top pick is Slip Sliding Away, who goes out for Jimmy Toner. I know this barn isn’t known for debut success, but I think this filly might have some ability. She has looked very good in her workouts, particularly in that drill two back when she broke a bit slowly from the gate but easily outworked a stablemate thereafter. She’s definitely bred to be a turf horse, being by budding turf influence American Pharoah out of a dam who was a Grade 3 stakes winner on turf.
 

RACE 5: MAMA MARY (#8)
First Appeal may go off as the favorite as she makes her second start for the Brad Cox barn following a trainer switch. This filly had once been quite formidable in these races for her prior trainer Linda Rice. Yet she went badly off form in 2018 and was dropped in to face cheaper company. Brad Cox was able to rekindle her competitive spirit last time, as she ran one of her better races to be third at this level going 7 furlongs. That distance has always been at the outer limits of what she can handle, so this turnback to 5 1/2 furlongs should be right up her alley. If some pace develops up front, she should be charging in the lane. I’m using her, but there are many others to consider. Sadie Lady was visually impressive in her victory at the N1X allowance level last time. Joel Rosario seems to have developed a good rapport with her and he’s always dangerous in these races. I’d include her, but my top pick is actually the filly who finished ahead of her two back. Mama Mary may get somewhat overlooked in this spot due to her inferior speed figures. However, I think there’s a case to be made that the 93 TimeformUS Speed Figure and 65 Beyer that she earned last time should actually be higher. Both Sadie Lady and Questeq, the 8th place finisher, have run faster speed figure before and after that race. Mama Mary has been intended for turf in all 6 of her starts, but 4 of those have been washed off the grass. She’s clearly better on this surface, and her form probably doesn’t make that as apparent as it should be. Furthermore, Joe Sharp is an excellent 19 for 76 (25 percent, $2.56 ROI) with horses coming off wins in turf sprints. She should sit a good stalking trip under Luis Saez.
 

RACE 7: SOUTHERN KING (#6)
This is a fascinating New York-bred N1X allowance race, since you have new faces coming in from a multitude of different class levels instead of the same old cast of characters. The likely favorite is Cross Border, who has been in raging form since returning from a lengthy layoff for Mike Maker. He almost won going 6 furlongs two back, a distance that is probably too short for him, and he seemed far more comfortable stretching out last time. He did benefit from a favorable pace scenario in that most recent win, but he kicked away decisively in the lane, beating a field of comparable quality to this one. I’m definitely using him prominently, but now he has to stretch out to 9 furlongs and fend off some improving younger rivals. The most intriguing alternatives are all 3-year-olds. Graded On a Curve is a rare Chad Brown runner that may actually be a decent price. He looks slower than these based on speed figures, but I liked the way he won last time, comfortably overhauling that field while taken in hand in the late stages. He showed some promise as a 2-year-old and has every right to keep progressing in his second start off the layoff. My top selection is Southern King, who makes his turf debut. While he doesn’t have a ton of turf breeding on the dam’s side of his pedigree, Animal Kingdom is an excellent grass influence and this gelding’s full-brother was a turf winner. He’s getting some changes for this race, as he makes his first start as a gelding and Pletcher removes the blinkers he wore last time. He showed some promise in his early races on dirt and he is apparently working well enough on the turf recently for Pletcher to point for a spot like this. I like that he gets Joel Rosario back aboard and I don’t think he’ll have any issues with the added distance.
 

RACE 8: COOKIE DOUGH (#2)
It’s been a frustrating year so far for Talk Veuve to Me. Her series of woes continued last time out when she was pretty dull finishing third as the 8-5 public choice. Perhaps she didn’t like the mud, or perhaps she’s just lost the blazing early speed that she possessed as a younger horse. I suppose her third place finish was flattered when Special Relativity returned to win the Shine Again with a 105 TimeformUS Speed Figure, but it’s not as if that was the strongest stakes event. Talk Veuve to Me was entered in that race but she’s instead contesting this optional claimer and adding blinkers. I’m using her, but I strongly prefer Cookie Dough at what figures to be a similar price. While it might not appear that she’s improved for new trainer Kiaran McLaughlin, she’s actually run very well in each of her last two starts. She had no chance to be around at the end of the Acorn after contesting the front end with the likes of Serengeti Empress and Guarana. McLaughlin tried turning her back in distance in the Victory Ride last time, and I thought she actually ran very well despite the fact that she finished far behind Royal Charlotte. The pace of that race was very fast for the distance, which explains Cookie Dough’s inflated 121 TimeformUS Speed Figure, bumped up 11 points over her final time figure. Yet it’s not as if that’s the only fast figure that she’s earned this year, a s she ran faster than Talk Veuve to Me in the Gulfstream Park Oaks and Black Eyed Susan as well. I don’t mind that she’s drawn inside of Talk Veuve to Me, since she’s a front-runner and has the stamina to get the 7-furlong distance. Cookie Dough just appears to be an improving 3-year-old who has probably found the right field of older rivals.
 

RACE 9: SISTER PEACOCK (#3)
There are many contenders to consider in this wide-open Galway Stakes. Karama figures to attract support after dominating a very good group in the Stormy Blues at Laurel last time. In her first attempt at a turf sprint she sped off to a clear early lead and never looked like a loser while holding sway over the very good Change of Control in the late stages. She probably doesn’t need to improve much off that effort to beat this field, but she may have to adapt to a different trip. She’s a run-off leader type and there is plenty of other speed in this race, so she may not be alone up front. Eyeinthesky merits consideration after she closed for second in the Coronation Cup last time behind the undefeated Break Even. She figures to get another strong pace to close into here, and she had an excuse for that poor showing at Monmouth two back. She makes a ton of sense from a pace standpoint, but others have more upside. Brooke Marie is another closer to consider, since she seems to be hitting her stride as a turf sprinter now as a more mature 3-year-old. She wasn’t beating much at Monmouth last time, but she was impressive blowing that field away in the lane. I’m using her prominently, but there are some intriguing shippers to consider instead. My top pick is Sister Peacock, who comes in from Woodbine. Like Karama, she’s done her best work on the front end, but she seems like she might be more tractable. She seemed perfectly comfortable rating alongside another horse through moderate fractions going a mile last time, so it’s not like she’s some speed-crazy speedball. This filly is undefeated in sprint races and has really never been challenged in races under a mile. It’s notable that 3 of her 4 turf outings have come in routes, so she may be even better on turf than her form suggests. I was quite impressed by that win in the Graham at Woodbine two back and I believe she’s going to outrun her odds in this confusing race.
 

RACE 10: DURESS (#7)
There’s not a ton of useful form on which to base your opinions in this perplexing maiden claiming event. For that reason, a horse like first time starter Secular Stagnation may go off as the favorite, and I’m not convinced that he’s one that you really want. This is one of these professional workmates that Chad Brown seems to find populating his barn. He’s put in 37 timed drills since his 2-year-old season without ever having raced. He’s worked in company with a number of his stablemates and has proven inferior to many of them. The fact that this quarter-million dollar colt is debuting so late for a tag is probably not a good sign. I think this is a good spot for second time starter Duress. He was going 5 1/2 furlongs in his debut against a solid maiden special weight group and he was hardly disgraced. He was slow into stride and lagged well behind early before making a solid late run through the final quarter mile. He was passing horses quickly across the wire and galloped out ahead of the field soon after the wire. It is perhaps a little hasty for his connections to drop him in for a tag after a somewhat encouraging debut, but the maiden special weight races at this meet come up very tough. He’s supposed to improve with added distance, since his dam is a half-sister to top class turf routers like Shakespeare and Perfect Shirl.