by David Aragona
Now Available: TimeformUS Saratoga PPs and Betting Strategies
Gain access to TimeformUS PPs for all 40 days of the Saratoga meet, plus betting strategies – recommended wagers for each of David Aragona's daily Top Plays, fully constructed multi-race tickets including daily Pick-4s and Pick-5s, and additional strategic information around playing every card. You will also receive exclusive access to David's Highlight Horses, as well as opinions on all stakes races. Learn more ›
Race 1: 5 - 4 - 2 - 1
Race 2: 8 - 9 - 14 - 6
Race 3: 1 - 2 - 6 - 4
Race 4: 1 - 2 - 4 - 5
Race 5: 6 - 4 - 3 - 5
Race 6: 3 - 1 - 8 - 5
Race 7: 6 - 5 - 2
Race 8: 3 - 4 - 2 - 1
Race 9: 5 - 6 - 2
Race 10: 11 - 9 - 2 - 8
RACE 3: YOURDREAMSORMINE (#1)
Big Guy Ian will win this race if he gets back to his better efforts for Rudy Rodriguez, but I’m somewhat skeptical. This barn has not been winning at the same rate at this Saratoga meet, and he’s likely to face early pressure from Too Fast to Pass in this spot. I respect his talent, but I just don’t want to take this horse at a short price. His main rival would appear to be Data Driven, who is dangerous off the claim by Robertino Diodoro. This horse faced tougher company in most of his starts for David Jacobson, but his last race has to be a concern. Dropped in for a bottom level tag, he did not show any speed out of the gate, and just clunked along for second while never really threatening to be competitive. This is a tougher spot than that one, and I’m not completely sold on his chances. I’m using the only other viable alternative that I can find, Youdreamsormine. I know that some have been wary of taking Jorge Navarro’s horses in New York, but the fact of the matter is that he is 5 for 13 at NYRA over the past year. Clearly, this is a barn that has gotten more selective about which runners they bring to this circuit. Yourdreamsormine has back races for Milton Wolfson that would absolutely crush this bunch, but he went off form for his prior trainer after being claimed in February. He came back off the layoff against slightly tougher company at Monmouth last time, but a sloppy track may have had something to do with his off the board finish. He made a bid around the far turn to follow the eventual winner, but stayed glued to the rail for the entire second half of the race. It appeared that you did not want to be right down inside at Monmouth that day, and he understandably faded late. He figures to move forward off that, and it appears that he’s been well-spotted for this Saratoga try.
RACE 8: SPINOFF (#3)
Only six runners signed on for this Saratoga Special, but it appears to be a talented group of runners. While Sir Truebadour is the most accomplished member of the field, having taken down the Grade 3 Bashford Manor at Churchill, that was an extraordinarily slow race. It seems more likely that those coming off a maiden win will vie for supremacy. Ricardo Santana Jr. jumps over to Tight Ten, which is good sign for this Asmussen runner. I thought that this Winchell Thoroughbreds homebred was very impressive winning at Churchill Downs in his debut, as he fought off challenges on the turn and rebroke once asked for his best in the lane. The final time was solid and he only has to negotiate an extra half-furlong this time. Call Paul ran the fastest race of any of these when breaking his maiden at Delaware, but he was aided by a moderate pace that day. His trainer, Jason Servis, is definitely dangerous in spots like this, as he displayed winning the Sanford and Champagne with Firenze Fire last year. I’m definitely using both of these runners, but I’m interested in Todd Pletcher’s entrants in this race. At first glance, Meade looks like the more imposing of the pair. He earned a respectable speed figure when winning his debut at Belmont last time, though I’m not sure he was facing a top field that day. I’m using him, but the one that intrigues me more is Spinoff. I know that his Gulfstream maiden victory came up a slow race, but I liked what I saw from this chestnut colt. He has a lovely way of moving, and he seemed to handle that field with utmost ease, putting his ears forward when he made the front before loping to the wire. He has reportedly trained forwardly since then, outworking Meade in the mornings. His laid-back disposition and stalking running style should be assets in this race.