by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona
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On every Friday through Sunday at the Saratoga meet, get exclusive access to betting tickets for David Aragona’s Top Plays, including multi-race bet constructions and other exotic tickets. Also get exclusive access to David's Highlight Horses, as well as opinions on all stakes races. Learn more
Race 1: 3 - 6 - 5 - 1
Race 2: 8 - 9 - 3 - 7
Race 3: 6 - 1 - 2 - 3
Race 4: 2B - 10 - 9 - 4
Race 5: 7 - 1 - 3 - 5
Race 6: 5 - 3 - 9 - 8
Race 7: 2 - 5 - 7 - 1
Race 8: 3 - 9 - 4 - 8
Race 9: 8 - 6 - 9 - 3
Race 10: 13 - 12 - 3 - 4
RACE 1: MAKEALITTLELOVE (#3)
Friend of Liberty is the horse to beat off the claim by Larry Rivelli, but this drop in class is a little suspicious. She has indeed faced tougher fields on multiple occasions, but you have to imagine that the connections weren’t planning to run her back for 40% of the price they paid when they put in the claim slip in late June. She’s a deserving favorite, but I’m trying to beat her with Makealittlelove. This filly actually ran quite well to hang on for fourth last time after setting a fast pace (indicated by red color-coding in the PPs) in her most recent start. Luna Rising, who was also a part of the pace that day, came back to run much faster when winning her subsequent start. Today, the Pace Projector is predicting that she will be on the lead in a situation favoring the front-runner.
RACE 4: DECORATED SOLDIER (#2B)
With this race coming off the turf, the Main Track Only runners are at the center of this affair. I suppose that Control Group and Arbitrator will take some play, but in my opinion, they’re running for second. Control Group may not really want to go this far, and I find it odd that Arbitrator hasn’t made a start on the NYRA circuit since 2015. He won’t be any kind of generous price, but if Decorated Solider runs to his prior races, I don’t see how he loses this race. He put in a respectable effort against tougher company two back at Oaklawn, earning one of the fastest speed figures in the field. Then last time, he actually ran better than it appears at Churchill Downs since he was racing three- to four-wide against the rail bias that was in effect on Kentucky Oaks day. Now he makes his first start as a new gelding, and is getting the class relief that he needs. Furthermore, over the past five years, Todd Pletcher is 8 for 22 (36 percent, $1.96 ROI) in off the turf races at Saratoga. He just wins in these situations.
RACE 7: PAS DE SOUCIS (#2)
Both Chad Brown runners are likely to attract significant play in this race, but I strongly prefer one over the other. Galileo’s Song showed some talent as a 3-year-old, but did so in longer races, and I think that’s where she’s ultimately going to prove best. This feels like a prep for something down the line as she returns from the lengthy layoff. Instead, I’m interested in Pas de Soucis, who makes her first start in this country. Chad Brown really seems to point his best imports to this meet. Over the past five years, he is 5 for 9 (56 percent, $4.86 ROI) with foreign shippers in turf routes at the Spa. This filly showed some promise in a few races in France, but was undone by soft ground on a few occasions. Her liking for firm turf makes her well-suited to U.S. racing, and I think she’s going to prove tough in this otherwise mediocre field. (I realize that the turf course is not listed as “firm,” but this course should still be more conducive to this filly than the legitimately “soft” ground she did not handle in France.)
RACE 8: HOLLYWOOD STAR (#3)
This is one of the stronger Saratoga Specials that we’ve seen in recent years. The horse to beat is probably Copper Bullet, who was a solid second to the talented Ten City in the Bashford Manner at Churchill Downs last time after getting an odd trip. He broke a length slowly, rushed up to engage the leader, backed off and got steadied, and then rallied again to be second. He should work out a more comfortable trip this time, but he faced a seriously talented field. A wild card in the race is Barry Lee, who got a gigantic 108 TimeformUS Speed Figure in his debut at Laurel last time. There’s no doubt that he put in a huge effort that day, but he needs to stretch out now, and there is other speed in the race to press him. I’m going to try to get Hollywood Star to run them all down. I was impressed with this colt’s debut, as he also broke a step slowly, and circled the field to win going away late. He’s bred to get better as the distances get longer, and Dale Romans has shown that he can win right back with his debut winners. Over the past five years, Romans is 8 for 21 (38 percent, $6.60 ROI) with horses that won their debuts running back on dirt in their second starts.
RACE 9: SAME KINDA CRAZY (#8)
First Appeal and Noble Freud are likely to take the bulk of the play. The former is undefeated on turf and may have beaten a tougher group when rallying to victory last time. Noble Freud is unproven on turf, but she is a daughter of solid grass influence Freud. I’ll certainly use both of these runners, but they don’t figure to offer much value. My top pick is Same Kinda Crazy, whose recent efforts are a bit better than they seem. She encountered traffic in her seasonal debut at Belmont, then had to alter inside late in her next start on June 15. Last time, she was hindered by breaking from an outside post position and getting squeezed back after the start. From there, she went wide on the turn and was one of the few horses to make up significant ground. She should be placed closer to the pace this time as she adds blinkers.
RACE 10: HOLLAND ROAD (#13)
Off the turf, the horse to beat is now Itsabigboy, who was a grinding fourth in his debut at Gulfstream in June. That day, he finished just ahead of stablemate Hy Brasil, who would return two starts later to win a nine-furlong maiden claiming race here earlier in the week. Itsabigboy ran like a horse that would appreciate more ground, and he gets that today. I think he’s the most likely winner, but I want to take a small shot against him with the runner posted just his outside, Holland Road. I think it’s now clear that this colt just is not a turf horse, even though he had some pedigree to handle that surface. Now his connections wisely move him back to dirt and drop him into an easier spot. It makes sense, considering that he ran his best career speed figure on the dirt back in April. That number came back suspiciously high, but the winner Outplay was the only horse to run back out of that race on dirt next time, and he has only improved his speed figures in subsequent starts. Furthermore, Holland Road was attempting to close on a day that the track appeared to be favoring speed. If he handles the nine furlongs, I think he can pull off the minor upset.