PICKS

Race 1:   1 - 8 - 5 - 4
Race 2:   2 - 7 - 5 - 9
Race 3:   3 - 1 - 4 - 5
Race 4:   2 - 6 - 7 - 8
Race 5:   4 - 8 - 2 - 7
Race 6:   4 - 10 - 6 - 2
Race 7:   1 - 3 - 8 - 6
Race 8:   5 - 4 - 2 - 6
Race 9:   2 - 5 - 1 - 4
Race 10:   5 - 3 - 9 - 1

PLAYS

(Guide - WIN: recommended win/key horse at fair odds; UPGRADE: value horses I picked underneath to consider upgrading in vertical/horizontal wagers; USE: runners to include in vertical exotic wagers with Win horse)

RACE 2: BEAUTIFULNAVIGATOR (#2)

Towhead (#5) was a participant in that no-contest race last time, in which she was ridden to win while some others were eased, thinking the race was called off. She did benefit from a relatively slow early pace that day, but she could find herself in a similar position here. I’m not against her, and she should benefit from experience, but she’s pretty obvious this time. Another runner who experience who has a right to improve is Forever Dixie (#9). She showed some ability in her debut behind a runaway winner and there’s enough turf pedigree to suggest she might handle it. Yet there appear to be some talented first time starters in this field. Chad Brown has entered a pair, and I actually prefer the one who could be a bigger price. Conseillante (#7) is out of a dam who has produced 6 winning foals from as many to race, topped by G1 Santa Anita Oaks winner Paradise Woods. While that one was a dirt specialist, 4 of this dam’s other foals won on turf, including stakes winner Forest Chatter. She’s worked decently for this debut and seems well suited to this spot. My top pick is Beautifulnavigator (#2). She was purchased for $81k at the Goffs Orby sale in Ireland. A member of the first crop for BC Mile winner Expert Eye, she’s out of a dam who won once in 18 starts, sprinting on turf in England. She’s produced 4 overseas winners, topped by multiple listed stakes winner Tabarrak, who was best between 7F and 8F on turf. Ken McPeek has decent statistics in this situation. She looked best from the gate in that July 28 drill, and it seems like a good sign that Luis Saez is riding for this barn.

WIN: #2 Beautifulnavigator, at 9-2 or greater
USE: 5,7,9

RACE 3: SHADOLAMO (#3)

I suppose Prairie Fire (#1) and Big Q (#4) are deserving favorites in this claiming affair. The former already won for Charlton Baker when she was in his barn two back. She obviously didn’t perform as well on the class hike last time, but she’s getting realistic class relief. It just feels like she’s placed to win now that she’s in Michael Dubb’s barn. Big Q defeated a pretty weak New York-bred optional claimer two back, so I’m not that bothered by the precipitous drop in class this time. She has past races that make her a contender here and is another that may just be dropped to win. I’m taking a shot against them with Shadolamo (#3), who needs to get back on track for the John Toscano barn. Her best races clearly came for Eduardo Jones and she’s been uncompetitive since getting claimed away from him. However, she’s also been in some unfavorable circumstances. Turf was the wrong surface last time and two back she got caught up chasing a quick pace before fading in the mud. Today is the day she has to wake up and I’ll find out if she can still run at a square price.

WIN: #3 Shadolamo, at 5-1 or greater

RACE 5: GLITTER UP (#4)

Mrs. Green (#2) is clearly the horse to beat after just missing by a nose at this level last time. She’s progressed with each start and seemed to benefit from the turnback in distance last time. That was arguably a tougher field than this one and she may just win by attrition, as many of her rivals in this spot have significant questions to answer. One of those is Sixth Street (#8), who turns back in distance as she makes her second start in this country for Brendan Walsh. She was more of a sprinter in Europe, and she just seemed like one who couldn’t finish going the mile last time. She actually traveled well into that race before stalling in the stretch, which leads me to believe that the turnback can work for her. Jorge Abreu has entered a couple of runners, but both seem hard to trust. Linear Thinking (#5) was once highly regarded, but she hasn’t raced in nearly 2 years and is a question going this short. I’m going in a different direction with Glitter Up (#4). This filly is bred to be more of a turf horse as a half-sister to turf specialists Sand Dancer and Shock Leader. I thought she took to grass pretty well in her lone attempt over it as a 2-year-old, setting the pace before getting run down in the final jumps. The filly that beat her, Lost My Sock, went on to run respectably against stakes company, flattering the form of that race. There’s some other speed in here, but she’s drawn well outside of them and should be a square price.

WIN: #4 Glitter Up, at 9-2 or greater
USE: 2,8

RACE 6: UPPER CASE (#4)

I’m taking a stand against possible favorite Chocolate Gelato (#8) as she makes her second start. She ran fine on debut, but there were some real expectations for her off an impressive series of workouts. I have some questions about the quality of that debut field she faced, and it feels like she’s stepping up into a tougher spot. Furthermore, Todd Pletcher is just 3 for 22 (14%, $0.78 ROI) with 2-year-old maiden second time starters in Saratoga dirt sprints over 5 years. I’m most interested in a couple of first time starters in a race that appears loaded with talent. One of those is Firing Bullets (#10), who has lived up to her name in recent weeks. This grey filly’s workouts for her debut have been very impressive. She was much the best from the gate in that July 27 drill, running well clear of a couple of overmatched workmates while showing real acceleration into the turn. She doesn’t have much pedigree, but she sold well after working a furlong in 9 4/5 at the 2-year-old sale. My top pick is another firster, Upper Case (#4). This $260k weanling purchase was subsequently an RNA for $725k as a yearling. The dam was unraced and her only foal to start is turf horse Ever Smart. The dam is a full-sister to G1 BC Dirt Mile winner Battle of Midway ($1.5 million). Bill Mott doesn’t have great stats with firsters at Saratoga, but this filly could be an exception. She’s been working very well, looking best in company in each of her last two works while obviously wanting to do more. I think there’s real talent here.

WIN: #4 Upper Case, at 5-2 or greater
USE: 10

RACE 7: INSTINCTIVE (#1)

Spungie (#3) is the one to beat as she returns from a layoff of just over a year. She was the beaten favorite at even money when she tried this level here last summer, but also didn’t get an ideal trip, going 3-wide on the turn in a race that was dominated by inside runners. She had run very well to notch her N1X condition in the prior start, earning a speed figure that would surely make her a winner against this bunch. Bill Mott is 15 for 85 (18%, $2.45 ROI) off 180+ day layoffs in turf routes over the past 5 years, so he can get one ready off this kind of break. I just didn’t need to pick her on top at a short price. A few of these exit the 4th race on July 20. The horse that I want from that affair is Instinctive (#1). I was hoping she would have shown more that day, but she was never on the rail and the slight cutback to a mile may not have benefited her. Now she’s landed in a race that features plenty of pace, and her prior races at Belmont and Aqueduct make her very competitive here. It also feels like she could be a square price this time after taking some money last time. The other horse that I think is a little interesting is My Lips Are Sealed (#8). The pace scenario probably doesn’t benefit her, but she showed ability in a few races last year and ran pretty well against Spungie on June 5 at Belmont last season. I’m not sure if the trainer switch is a positive or a negative, but she appears to have worked well for her return, the last drill in company with recent winner Ghost Giant.

WIN: #1 Instinctive, at 9-2 or greater
USE: 3,8

RACE 10: HATCH (#5)

I don’t have a major argument against Reckless Spirit (#3). He’s just been in great form lately for H. James Bond and appears to have landed in a fairly weak race for this level. Any of his prior performances could make him a winner here, but he can be a difficult horse to ride at times and isn’t the type that I want to endorse strongly at a short price, even though he is the most likely winner. I have to take a shot against him with Hatch (#5). I had wanted to try this horse on turf last time when his race was rained off the grass. He ran decently to be fourth but didn’t seem to appreciate the sloppy going. He had performed better in his prior dirt start when making a big move into contention at the quarter pole before getting cut off in mid-stretch. This grey gelding is subtly in better form than it might appear, and he has plenty of turf pedigree. Fort Larned is a decent 10% turf route sire, and the dam was a Grade 2 winner on grass, achieving all of her success on that surface. He’s now making his first start off the claim for Carlos Martin and I like the rider switch to Joel Rosario. The other horse that makes sense in here is Seaver (#9), but he was a good one to have last time when finishing second at 22-1 on the stretch-out. Now his form is a bit more exposed and you have to take a shorter price on a rider who doesn’t have much success on grass at this circuit.

WIN: #5 Hatch, at 5-1 or greater
USE: 3,9