by David Aragona
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Race 1: 7 - 1 - 3 - 5
Race 2: 10 - 9 - 5 - 2
Race 3: 8 - 10 - 4 - 2
Race 4: 1 - 3 - 4 - 5
Race 5: 5 - 4 - 1 - 2
Race 6: 6 - 1 - 3 - 2
Race 7: 10 - 7 - 8 - 5
Race 8: 2 - 4 - 7 - 1
Race 9: 10 - 8 - 7 - 2
Race 10: 1 - 2 - 3 - 5
RACE 1: SKEPTICAL (#7)
Good Skate is arguably the horse to beat as he drops in class. He participated in an auction maiden event first time out, and put in an even effort. He was outrun in the early stages but made a mild move around the quarter pole to pass half the field before flattening out late. The winner of that race is entered to run in the G2 Saratoga Special on Saturday. Rudy Rodriguez is 4 for 17 (24%, $1.87 ROI) with 2YOs going from maiden special weight to maiden claiming races in their second career starts over the past 5 years. Pickering Circle takes a similar drop after racing in an off-the-turf race late in the Belmont meet. He was an MTO that day but was no match for the top two finishers. That said, both of those horses have some talent, as winner Run Curtis Run returned to win the Rick Violette Stakes. I’m using these, but I prefer another runner with experience. Skeptical didn’t take much money in his Churchill debut, but showed good early speed chasing the leader before fading through the stretch. He got a decent 69 TimeformUS Speed Figure for the effort, but horses have not done too well out of that race. Debuting on turf was a little puzzling since the dam was a multiple New Mexico-bred stakes winner sprinting on dirt, and the siblings were all dirt winners. Ken McPeek is 3 for 18 (17%, $3.07 ROI) maiden second time starters going from turf to dirt sprints over the past 5 years. Jose Ortiz climbs aboard, and this one figures to do better here at what could be a square price.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,3,5,8
RACE 3: GINGER KITTY (#8)
I suppose Fuddled is the horse to beat as she drops in for a tag for the first time, but I find this mare pretty difficult to trust. She once showed real ability sprinting on turf, finishing a close second to decent turf horse First Wave in her career debut. However, she’s raced sparingly since then and her last couple of efforts have been pretty dull. I’m skeptical that she still possesses the early speed to get forward here and this barn has been pretty cold so far at the meet. Among the class droppers, I prefer Herald Angel. She was setting a pace that fell apart last time going a distance that’s probably just too far for her. I like her cutting back to this 5 1/2 furlong trip, as she ran well over this course and distance last summer. The Mike Maker barn can do no wrong right now, so she figures to be a major player. Though I went in a different direction for my top pick. Ginger Kitty figures to be a square price this time after taking a surprising amount of money when last seen on June 24. She only beat one horse home that day, but she didn’t get the greatest ride. She was uncovered early, racing 4-wide into the turn before crossing into the 3-path. She had good position coming to the top of the stretch, but her rider showed no urgency to get her in gear, and she found herself in a tight spot at the three-sixteenths pole, out of which she had to steady. She’s clearly better than that, as she displayed two back when she finished a close fourth after a similarly wide trip. I like this rider change to Dylan Davis, and she has the tactical speed to work out the right kind of journey sitting in behind the leaders.
Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 1,2,4,10
RACE 6: CANDY MONET (#6)
Write This Down is the horse to beat after she was unlucky to lose at this level last time when sent off as the 2-1 favorite. She hesitated at the start and was off towards the back of the field, spotting her main rivals multiple lengths. From there, she settled in last for much of the running before launching a wide move into contention on the far turn. She flattened out late but ran pretty well all things considered. She’s since been claimed by Rob Atras, who is having a strong meet. However, Atras is just 2 for 23 (9%, $0.79 ROI) first off the claim on turf over the past 5 years. I’m not totally convinced about this one turning all the way back to 5 1/2 furlongs and prefer an alternative at a slightly better price. My top pick is Candy Monet. This filly tried a much tougher spot for her turf debut last time against maiden special weight foes. She showed good early speed for the first quarter mile but then got to drifting out around the far turn, ultimately winding up in the center of the course. She never stopped running, but lost all chance to hit the board after those antics. Now she gets a rider switch to Javier Castellano and drops in class. I think she showed that she handles the turf last time and I suspect there’s more ability here than those running lines indicate. As long as she runs straight I think she’ll prove to be a serious rival for the favorite. The other interesting horse is Black Licorice, who returns from a long layoff for the dangerous Mike Maker barn. She finished far back in her debut last year, but was rank in the early stages of that race and could run better now.
Win: 6
Exacta: 6 with 1,3
RACE 7: SHAWDYSHAWDYSHAWDY (#10)
Five runners in this field are exiting the 7th race on July 24. No fractions are listed for that race since there was a timer malfunction but it was a moderate pace according to the TimeformUS Pace Figures, which were based on Trakus times. The obvious trip horse from that race is Mira Mission, but he’s not the kind of runner that I want to bet back. While he did have to alter course a few times through the stretch, the trouble didn’t cost him more than a length and he had gotten a great trip leading up to that point. I thought others had tougher trips, including the runner-up Never Explain. This Shug McGaughey trainee hadn’t shown much in his prior starts, but he took a huge step forward last time. He was hung wide into the first turn and made an early move to challenge for the lead on the backstretch but still was able to hang on for second late. A repeat of that performance makes him the one to beat. I’m also somewhat interested in Treason, who got the wrong trip on opening day of this meet when he got an indecisive ride and was hung out wide the entire way. He had shown ability in his debut victory, and could be a major factor here if able to rebound. My top pick is Shawdyshawdyshawdy, who gets back to grass after being rained off the turf in his two most recent starts. He didn’t get a particularly good trip or ride in the Woodhaven when last seen on the grass, as he was wide around both turns before his rider just gave up in upper stretch. He had shown some ability as a 2-year-old, and I think he has a right to move forward getting back on his preferred surface.
Win: 10
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 1,5,7,8,13
RACE 9: STAR DEVINE (#10)
This is a highly competitive race that appears to go beyond the likely favorite Goin’ Good. I have no major knocks on this Brad Cox trainee, as she seems to show up every time regardless of surface. However, she doesn’t have a significant ability edge over this field and she’s going to take money due to all of the victories she’s compiled. It appears likely that the early pace will be quick, since Wink, Dr B, and Mischiefful all do their best running from the front end. I respect both Goin’ Good and Illegal Smile, who she beat in that June allowance at Churchill, but I think there are some local fillies to consider. Tuscan Queen was an impressive maiden winner over this course and distance but she gets a class test here. I prefer two fillies coming out of the Soaring Softly at Belmont. Bye Bye won that race after making an early move in upper stretch. She didn’t handle a mile last time, but I like her cutting back to a true sprint distance given how well she ran going 5 furlongs at Gulfstream to break her maiden. She’s part of the play, but my top pick is the fourth-place finisher from the Soaring Softly. Star Devine has progressively stretched out in distance since winning her 6-furlong debut at Aqueduct in April. She was dazzling in that initial victory, overcoming a slow start to take control with an impressive burst of speed in upper stretch. She subsequently didn’t run badly when getting an aggressive ride in the Soaring Softly, but she then couldn’t handle a further stretch-out to 1 1/16 miles last time. She got way too rank rating off a slower pace that day and had nothing left for the stretch drive. I love her cutting back to a sprint, and I think she’s going to get the right pace setup. Jorge Abreu’s runners have been performing well at the meet, and this filly looked like one with stakes potential first time out.
Win: 10
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 2,6,7,8
Trifecta: 10 with 7,8 with 2,5,6,7,8