by David Aragona
Get the wagering strategy for this card in this year’s TimeformUS Saratoga Betting Strategies package, which includes PPs for each day of the meet, exclusive access to the daily Highlight Horse, multi-race ticket constructions, and additional analysis of every stakes race at the meet. More info ›
Race 1: 3 - 2 - 1 - 4
Race 2: 5 - 6 - 3 - 7
Race 3: 5 - 1 - 9 - 2
Race 4: 4 - 6 - 8 - 3
Race 5: 7 - 4 - 8 - 3
Race 6: 6 - 7 - 4 - 8
Race 7: 10 - 6 - 2 - 3
Race 8: 12 - 4 - 13 - 2
Race 9: 7 - 4 - 5 - 1
Race 10: 2 - 8 - 5 - 3
RACE 1: KEEPING THE PEACE (#3)
With this race coming off the turf, it turns into a speed-fest on the dirt. All five of these runners have at one point or another done their best work on the front end, so they should all be gunning for the lead. In situations such as this, it is often the horse that makes the lead – the so-called “speed of the speeds” – who ends up winning the race. I believe the horse who breaks loose on the front end is most likely to be Keeping the Peace. His TimeformUS Early Pace Rating of 115 is tied for the highest in the field, and the horse with whom he’s projected to share the lead, Siena Magic, is less than trustworthy to actually show the early speed that he once possessed. Keeping the Peace has to hold his form off the claim away from Jason Servis, but I think it’s a good sign that Rudy Rodriguez is moving up in class. He got in a good workout last week and this horse seems well spotted going this 5 1/2 furlong distance. We’ve seen some of the drying out tracks at this meet play to horses in outside paths, so I’m hesitant to take Blessed Halo, who needs to gun to the front from the rail. This horse is not as effective when he can’t make the front end, and I’m just not sure that he still can produce the dirt speed that he once displayed. Furthermore, he’s ridden by a jockey who is often content to take a more passive role in these sprint situations. The biggest threat to Keeping the Peace may come from Fully Loaded, who has dirt form from his 2-year-old season that puts him in the mix. He finished just out of the money in two dirt starts as a 3-year-old, but he was facing tougher company in both of those races. He’s just not a turf horse, so he’s going to be a bigger price than he really should be based on a perception that he’s off form. I’m using him as a backup.
RACE 5: SPEED TALKS (#7)
It’s hard to have any confidence in the favorites in this maiden claiming race. Quantum Computing may go off at a short price for Chad Brown, but we haven’t seen too many of the juveniles shipping in from Monmouth for this stable do well at this meet. I prefer runners with experience. Wedontbelieveher ran well in her debut, but did so against a cheaper field. She was ready to go that day, getting bet down to be the 8-5 favorite, so I’m not sure how much the new connections can improve her. I would instead take a different horse out of that July 25 affair. Speed Talks ran like a horse who needed a race first time out, as she was off slowly and then rushed up through traffic before going wide around the turn. She ducked in briefly in upper stretch and then was just eased to the wire by Kendrick Carmouche. This seems like a filly with some size to her, so she may benefit from experience. Contessa adds blinkers second time out and she had a nice workout in the interim. I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a much better effort in her second start, and she’ll be a big price.
RACE 7: MANIACAL (#10)
Like in today’s opener, there is a ton of speed signed on in this off-the-turf affair. At one time, Still Krz would have been the clear early leader in a race like this, but he’s lost some of his typical early zip over the past year. He just hasn’t been as aggressive as he usually is in his two starts for the Gary Gullo barn, so I’m a little concerned that he may be hard-pressed to make the front over some of these. It’s unclear what we’re going to get from Gorgeous Charli in his second start off the layoff. He clearly wasn’t really in the race to win last time at Monmouth, as he was overmatched and not ridden out after an awkward break. He’s now returning in a more realistic spot and he’s reportedly been flashing some high speed in the morning ahead of this start. At one time, this horse would have been fast enough to potentially outrun Still Krz and he could be dangerous if he’s able to stay close to that rival in the early going here. While I don’t necessarily think this pace will fall apart, I do want to take a horse who should be perched just outside of the speed. Maniacal has raced primarily on turf over the past two seasons, but he’s always been just as good – if not better – on dirt. He was even second in the Grade 2 Amsterdam over this course a number of years ago. While he hasn’t run that well on the main track since then, he’s also been placed in some of the wrong spots, such as when he was oddly spotted in last year’s Vosburgh. He’s not exactly a true closer, but he’s not a need-the-lead type like some others in this field. If Javier Castellano can get him to relax just off the pace racing outside and make a wide run, I think he’ll be a dangerous presence in the lane. Furthermore, trainer Greg DiPrima has surprisingly strong statistics with horses racing second off the claim on the dirt. Over the past 5 years, he is 7 for 29 (24%, $3.56 ROI) in such situations.
RACE 10: SOONER SCHOONER (#2)
With this race coming off the turf, I believe that Sooner Schooner becomes a very likely winner. It’s hard to say which surface this filly actually prefers, but what should really play to her strengths is the distance of this race. Nine furlongs is a real test of stamina for fillies at this level, and Sooner Schooner has the size and scope to relish this demanding distance. She showed the ability to go two turns on the main track this spring at Oaklawn and Fair Grounds and those two efforts in March and April would be difficult for anyone in this field to top. She was unable to make much of an impact against tougher company on the turf last time, but she was staying on well at the end of that race. She’s just a grinding type of filly without much of a turn of foot, so one-mile on the inner course was always going to be tough for her. She reportedly had a throat operation prior to that last start, which may account for the form reversal we saw following that poor performance in her prior start. If she transfers her form back to dirt and does as well going this distance as I think she will, none of her rivals can beat her. The other fillies to include are Take Charge Tina and Needs No Ice, but neither one is particularly appealing. Take Charge Tina will take money based upon the improvement that she showed on turf last time out. I’m not convinced that she actually wants to go this far, and her recent dirt efforts have been highly disappointing. Needs No Ice ran well in some races at this level over the winter, but she would probably need some others to falter to come away with a victory.