by David Aragona
Now Available: TimeformUS Saratoga PPs and Betting Strategies
Gain access to TimeformUS PPs for all 40 days of the Saratoga meet, plus betting strategies – recommended wagers for each of David Aragona's daily Top Plays, fully constructed multi-race tickets including daily Pick-4s and Pick-5s, and additional strategic information around playing every card. You will also receive exclusive access to David's Highlight Horses, as well as opinions on all stakes races. Learn more ›
Race 1: 1 - 7 - 2 - 5
Race 2: 5 - 1 - 7 - 4
Race 3: 8 - 3 - 2 - 10
Race 4: 4 - 1 - 2 - 5
Race 5: 5 - 4 - 3 - 9
Race 6: 3 - 1 - 2 - 7
Race 7: 9 - 2 - 8 - 1
Race 8: 4 - 3 - 2 - 7
Race 9: 1 - 9 - 10 - 5
Race 10: 8 - 2 - 11 - 3
RACE 2: RAPHAEL (#5)
This is a weird race, because it has come up unusually weak for a maiden special weight on a weekend card at Saratoga. I suppose it’s possible that first time starter Asdaaf is a future star, as he is a half-brother to the late, brilliant sprinter Takaful. However, Kiaran McLaughlin does not have very strong numbers with 3-year-olds making their career debuts in dirt sprints (8 for 70, 11 percent, $0.88 ROI over the past 5 years). I’m using him, but I don’t want to pick this sort of firster at a short price. Among those that have run, there are not that many attractive options from which to choose. Therefore, I think this is a spot where we can get a little creative, as the winner may not have to run as well as you would typically expect in a race at this level. I’m intrigued by second-time starter Raphael. The field that he faced in his debut in comparison to today’s lineup is like night and day. All three of the horses that hit the board in that August 4 maiden event – Hersh, Business Cycle, and Alkhaatam – could be future stakes performers. Furthermore, the rail appeared to be dead before the rain arrived on that Whitney day card. The race that Raphael exits was a great example of the bias, as every runner that rode the rail came off the bridle quickly and had nothing in the end. Raphael never got off the inside that day and appeared to be a bit green racing inside of horses as he got shuffled out of position on the far turn. Nick Zito rarely has these types ready for their debuts, so Raphael should be fitter for his second start. I like that he showed plenty of early speed in his debut and the cutback to 6 furlongs should suit him. The other horse to consider is Timber Ghost, who has been working very well for his return to the races. He faced decent fields down in Florida and these types sometimes are able to do much better once given time to mature.
RACE 3: ALTERNATIVE ENERGY (#8)
There are some intriguing first-time starters in this field, but I’m going to side with experience. Among those who have run, I strongly prefer Alternative Energy. This filly ran deceptively well in her debut after a difficult start. She appeared to veer in coming out of the gate, bumping with the rivals to her inside. That poor break put her toward the back of the pack in the early going as the field separated into two flights of runners. She appeared to briefly lose momentum when in traffic behind the slower group, at which point Javier Castellano had to tip her out into the 3 path to launch her far-turn move. Despite the deficit she had given up to the leaders, she made a quick move into contention coming to the quarter pole and briefly appeared that she would threaten for an exacta finish before flattening out. I liked her OBS workout last year, and I thought she had trained well into her debut. Her biggest challenges figure to come from those making their career debuts. The one who interests me most is Cover Model. Shug McGaughey does not often win with firsters in turf sprints, but this filly has a stellar pedigree as a half-sister to Grade 1 turf winner Imagining by top sire War Front. She appears to be training very forwardly for this initial start, and I would not be surprised to see her run very well. One other filly that I want to throw into the mix at a price is Say It Softly. I know she hasn’t shown a ton of ability on dirt, but she is bred to be a turf horse. Her damside pedigree is full of turf influences and Sky Mesa is a solid grass influence. I don’t know if she can win, but she’s one that I would definitely include underneath.
RACE 8: WONDERFUL LIGHT (#4)
This is a fascinating optional-claiming race that could easily pass for a minor stakes. The most intriguing horse in the race is Breaking Lucky, who handled a steady diet of Grade 1 attempts pretty well during his 2017 campaign. Since then, he has been transferred to the barn of George Weaver, who picks this unusual spot in which to bring him back. This horse is a two-turn specialist, so this seven-furlong event feels like a prep race. Favorable Outcome also drops back out of stakes company. He ran well at this level two back, but that was a weird race over a sloppy track. Overall, he just hasn’t carried his form forward in 2018, and I’m against him in this spot. I see three main contenders in this field. Life in Shambles is not a horse I can make my top pick, but I’m afraid of him. He has back races that would make him dangerous here, and he’s been claimed by top trainer Jason Servis. I would expect a better effort out of him even though this distance may be too far. There was nothing wrong with Behavioral Bias’s last effort, as he laid down some swift fractions before just succumbing to a persistent No Dozing. He may not have been totally comfortable racing on the lead that day, but it’s possible he will have to take up that position once again given the lack of pace in this race. I’m using him, but my top pick is morning-line favorite Wonderful Light. In a race full of runners who have seen better days, this guy appears to just be coming into his own. He ran well to overcome a slow pace two back, and he possesses the tactical speed to work out a favorable trip here. Last time, despite losing as the 4-5 favorite, I thought he actually ran well in a situation where his rider needlessly overcomplicated things by trying to come up the rail. The two recent workouts over the Oklahoma track are encouraging.
RACE 9: CULLUM ROAD (#1)
Admission Office may win this race, but I never like taking deep closers as heavy favorites, especially in situations where they may be pace-compromised. There’s little doubt that he’s the most talented horse in this field, but he got a great setup in his debut, and I don’t think he’s invincible if he merely repeats his runner-up finish last time. The main rival for him to fear is Strike, who ran extremely well within the context of that July 29 allowance race. That was actually a pretty fast pace over a course that was yielding slower times, and he refused to quit through a grueling stretch duel. He just got nosed out at the wire in a game effort. I understand that there were no horses of Admission Office’s caliber in that field, but Strike is an inexperienced horse who has a right to keep improving. I’m definitely using him, but I’m taking a shot with a different runner out of that July 29 event. Cullum Road did have some things in his favor that day. He was reserved well off that quick tempo in the early going and was doing his best running late, when the race was falling apart. On the other hand, he did get badly steadied around the far turn, losing about three lengths of position, and he was rallying bravely through the stretch despite lacking running room. Sent off at 60-1, he actually took a major step forward for the Mike Maker barn. I like that Maker now switches to Luis Saez and adds blinkers for this start. Cullum Road showed decent tactical speed in the past, and he appeared to flash some of that zip while wearing blinkers in his recent workout over the dirt. When you dig through his form, he’s not quite as overmatched as he might seem at first glance, and I think he can make some noise at a big price.