by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

Now Available: Exclusive Saratoga betting strategies and unlimited TimeformUS PPs for the Saratoga meet!
On every Friday through Sunday at the Saratoga meet, get exclusive access to betting tickets for David Aragona’s Top Plays, including multi-race bet constructions and other exotic tickets. Also get exclusive access to David's Highlight Horses, as well as opinions on all stakes races. Learn more

PICKS

 
Race 1:   9 - 1 - 10 - 8
Race 2:   7 - 1 - 9 - 8
Race 3:   1 - 6 - 5 - 10
Race 4:   3 - 1 - 10 - 5
Race 5:   3 - 1 - 10 - 12
Race 6:   8 - 6 - 10 - 9
Race 7:   8 - 1 - 10 - 9
Race 8:   1 - 8 - 9 - 2
Race 9:   1 - 6 - 4 - 3
Race 10:   5 - 7 - 4 - 9

TOP PLAYS

 
RACE 3: MAGICAL SKY (#1)
I respect morning-line favorite Complicit, who has a right to take a step forward off her return at Belmont last time. The winner of that race was stalking the pace, so Complicit did the best of the closers in that race, and was finishing strongly across the wire. I liked her debut as a 2-year-old, and think she actually has some talent, but I think there’s another runner in this field that also has a right to turn into a nice horse. Magical Sky might be coming out of the strongest race of any of these. The horse that won that July 29 maiden event, Durable Goods, looks bound for stakes company after her dominant score. Magical Sky was soundly beaten that day, but she got going too late after being reserved at the back of the pack early. All things considered, she was finishing just as strongly as the winner across the wire, and acts like a runner that should benefit from this stretch-out in distance.

RACE 4: CHUBBY MASTER (#3)
This is a pretty confusing race. The horse to beat is probably Noneedtoflatterme, who has run pretty well in all of his dirt races. If he repeats his last effort, he will be a major player here. However, his trainer, Ray Handal, has pretty terrible numbers (16 Trainer Rating) with horses coming off wins, which is cause for concern. The other runner likely to attract support is Fortuitous Path, who takes a steep drop in class, but he’s been off form and is hard to trust. I’m most interested in Chubby Master, who exits a much tougher $25,000 claiming spot earlier in the meet. That day, he was briefly shuffled out of position on the backstretch as today’s rival Monte Man backed up in front of him. From there, he made a wide move into contention before getting tentatively ridden through the stretch. I think this horse is steadily rounding into form for Chris Englehart, who has started to pick things up on this circuit recently.

RACE 5: LAYLA NOOR (#3)
There could be some well-meant firsters in this race, particularly the two from the Chad Brown barn that bookend this field. Of the pair, I slightly prefer Fools Gold, who displayed a fluid stride when working a furlong in 10 2/5 seconds at the OBS sale earlier this year. She is out of Moment of Majesty, who earned more than $600,000 and was a stakes winner on the grass. I’ll use both, but my top pick is a runner with experience. Layla Noor was allowed to run when her 5 1/2-furlong debut came off the turf last month, and she likely benefitted from the experience. She seems like a filly that’s intended to stretch out in distance, and she gets that added ground here. Her dam, Senada, was a stakes-winning turfer who won going as far as 1 1/2 miles. Furthermore, Arnaud Delacour has solid numbers stretching horses out in their second career starts. Over the past five years, he is 6 for 20 (30%, $2.60 ROI) with horses going from sprint-to-route on turf in those situations.

RACE 7: MACHO MIAH (#8)
The horse to beat is clearly Wicked Macho, who is a deserving favorite off his encouraging turf debut last time. He was bumped and squeezed back at the start, leaving him in an unfamiliar position at the back of the pack. Despite losing that early going, he made a strong run into contention around the far turn and just missed getting up for the victory. He figures to show more speed from the rail given a clean break, but he’s also going to be a much shorter price now. I want to get a bit more creative, so I’m taking a shot with first-time turfer Macho Miah. I admit that I have no real insightful pedigree evidence that suggests this horse will handle the grass, even though Macho Uno (the sire of Wicked Macho) is a solid turf influence. The way this horse handled, and was striding over, a sealed racetrack last time leads me to believe than he’ll handle the grass. Furthermore, Jeremiah Englehart has had an awesome year with his turf sprinters, and these turf sprints have tended to favor outside closers.

RACE 8: ROMANTIC MUSIC (#1)
One-mile turf races on the inner course are very difficult to handicap. So much of the outcome is dependent on pace and trips. Horses that possess tactical speed and can save ground often have a distinct advantage. That’s why the horse that interests me most in this eighth race is Romantic Music. Other primary contenders like Lillie’s Answer and Magician’s Vanity are drawn towards the outside and will likely have to take back to save ground. Romantic Music, on the other hand, has drawn the rail post position, and possess enough speed to attain a stalking position. Furthermore, I think she’s in better form than it appears. Her last turf race at Belmont can just be ignored. She got an awful trip that day as she was wide all the way over a course that was favoring the inside path. I’m not that concerned about her dirt races, and a repeat of her prior turf efforts at Tampa in the spring would make her awfully tough to beat.